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Can Mighty Mike Silence the Magpie in a Pre-Christmas Ally Pally Showdown?
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The final day of darting action before the festive break promises a “tumultuous tungsten Tuesday” at Alexandra Palace. With the Christmas indulgence of turkey and trimmings just around the corner, the world’s best players have one last chance to secure their spot in the post-Christmas rounds of the Paddy Power World Darts Championship. Day 13 sees a stacked schedule across two sessions, headlined by darting royalty who find themselves under varying degrees of pressure.
Read on for the best bet for the PDC World Darts Championship and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
Darts betting tips: PDC World Darts Championship Day 13 Best Bet for Tuesday
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Luke Littler enters this final as the standard-bearer for the sport. His unbeaten run at Alexandra Palace and his relentless 100+ averages make him the formidable favourite. While Van Veen’s run has been heroic, Littler’s proven ability to dominate this specific stage should see him successfully defend his title.
- William O’Connor produced a stunning average of 102.36 in his first-round victory.
- Scott Williams emphatically answered his critics by averaging 99 in his 3-0 win.
- Danny Noppert fired in seven 180s during his 3-1 triumph over Jurjen van der Velde.
MVG vs O’Connor — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Van Gerwen is the heavy odds-on favourite to progress, with O’Connor priced as the clear underdog despite his form.
The market leans heavily towards a Van Gerwen victory, with 3-0 and 3-1 being the most likely outcomes according to the prices.
Expect plenty of maximums and big finishes, with boosted prices available for Van Gerwen’s scoring combinations.
The evening session is particularly heavy with narratives of legends facing the passage of time. Three-time world champion Michael van Gerwen and two-time winner Gary Anderson both face stern examinations of their credentials against dangerous, in-form opponents.
Form Guide: First Round Averages
A stark contrast in opening performances sees O’Connor arrive with significant momentum compared to a struggling Van Gerwen.
MVG looked “uncomfortable” and lost the opening set, averaging just 91 in a laborious 3-1 victory.
The Magpie produced one of the best displays of the round, dispatching his opponent 3-0 with a massive 102 average.
Scoring Power: Season 180s Per Leg
Despite the difference in reputation, the underlying 2025 seasonal data shows virtually no difference in maximum hitting power.
Van Gerwen remains a threat on the treble 20, maintaining a high maximum rate despite his inconsistent results.
O’Connor actually edges the seasonal stats for maximums and hit seven 180s in his short first-round match.
In the afternoon, Peter Wright continues his campaign, hoping to avoid the early exits that have plagued other seeds. It is a day where reputation counts for little, and current form suggests we could see a changing of the guard heading into the holiday interval.
The Afternoon Session: Veterans and Outsiders
The day begins with Jonny Tata facing Ryan Meikle. “The Barber” Meikle comes into this fresh off a stress-free whitewash of Jesus Salate, where an 89 average was sufficient. Tata matched that intensity on his debut to crush Ritchie Edhouse, suggesting this opener could be far tighter than the odds imply. While Meikle generally possesses a higher A-game, he has yet to consistently produce high-90s averages on the Ally Pally stage. This feels like a battle destined to go down to the wire.
Later in the afternoon, Daryl Gurney takes on Callan Rydz in a match that screams “maximums.” Rydz has a habit of finding his best form at this venue after quiet seasons, and although he only needed an 88 average to beat Patrik Kovacs, his scoring power is undeniable. Gurney, however, showed immense character to survive a scare against Beau Greaves, despite his opponent playing statistically better. “Superchin” has the grit to stand up to Rydz’s heavy scoring, even if the latter is likely to dominate the 180s count.
Peter Wright, struggling through a difficult season, faces Arno Merk. Wright’s average of 83.51 in his 3-0 win over Noa-Lynn van Leuven was uninspiring, but it was enough to progress. He now meets a player in Merk whose seasonal average hovers around that same mark. However, Merk displayed a higher ceiling in the European Super League, hitting the high 80s and low 90s, and brought that form to his debut win over Kim Huybrechts. If Wright cannot lift his game above the low-80s, his experience may be the only thing keeping him in the tournament.
Jermaine Wattimena vs Scott Williams offers a clash of styles. Wattimena, the “Machine Gun,” battled to a hard-fought win over Dominik Gruellich with an 87 average, but he will need to find another gear against Williams. “Shaggy” Williams dispelled doubts about his recent form by averaging 99 in a demolition of Paolo Nebrida. Williams thrives on the energy of the Ally Pally crowd, and if he brings that near-ton average again, Wattimena’s rapid-fire throw might not be enough to keep pace.
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The Evening Session: Legends Under Siege
Before the main event, the evening session offers plenty of intrigue. Danny Noppert, tipped by many for a deep run, faces the surprisingly dangerous Justin Hood. Noppert was impressive in defeating Jurjen van der Velde, firing in seven 180s and showing the extra gears he has added to his game this season. However, Justin Hood’s debut was nothing short of sensational, averaging almost 100 to thrash Nick Kenny. If “Happy Feet” Hood can replicate that unexpected scoring power, Noppert will face a severe examination.
Gary Anderson’s quest for a third title faces a significant hurdle in the shape of Connor Scutt. The “Flying Scotsman” is 55 now and has admitted to feeling the pace of the modern circuit. While he averaged 95 in a gritty 3-2 win over Adam Hunt, he faces a heavy scorer in Scutt who is growing in belief. Scutt survived a scare against Simon Whitlock but has the “A-game” to trouble anyone. Anderson can be prone to grumpiness on stage, and if Scutt starts well and the crowd gets involved, the veteran could find himself in a difficult position.
Finally, Josh Rock closes the night against Joe Comito. Rock admitted he was foolish to take his first-round opponent lightly, huffing and puffing to a win. He is unlikely to make that mistake twice. Comito pulled off a shock against Niko Springer without hitting a single 180, a statistic that suggests he lacks the firepower to live with Rock if the Northern Irishman finds his rhythm. Expect Rock to come out firing to secure a comfortable passage to the next round.
Best Bet
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Michael van Gerwen At Least 1 Bull Finish
The headline clash of the evening sees Michael van Gerwen take on William O’Connor, and all evidence points towards a contest defined by high-quality finishing and pivotal moments on the big targets. While Van Gerwen’s struggles have been well-documented—ranging from personal challenges off the oche to an inconsistency that has seen him look a “pale shadow” of his former dominant self—he remains capable of brilliance in flashes.
The metrics from the first round suggest this match will feature significant checkout opportunities. William O’Connor produced arguably the performance of the opening round, averaging an imperious 102.36 and notably nailing a massive 167 checkout to settle his nerves early on. That finish, requiring a bullseye, highlights the Irishman’s confidence on the 50-bit. Conversely, while Van Gerwen averaged just 91 and struggled against Mitsuhiko Tatsunami, we know his game is built on explosive finishing when pushed.
The projection for this match includes an expectation of three or more 100+ checkouts, suggesting both players will be leaving themselves on finishes that often necessitate a bullseye strike. With the match predicted to be a tighter affair than the odds suggest—potentially going to four or five sets—the opportunities for a spectacular bull finish increase significantly. O’Connor’s clinical 53% on doubles in round one proves he will force Van Gerwen to take his chances on the biggest segments of the board.
What could go wrong? The primary risk lies in Van Gerwen’s current fragility. He looked extremely uncomfortable in his opener, and if O’Connor repeats his blistering 102 average, he could simply blow the Dutchman away before high-finish opportunities arise. Alternatively, if MVG’s “pig’s ear” performance continues, he may struggle to set up finishes at all, losing legs before reaching the check-out zone.
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