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Can the big guns navigate potential banana skins on a packed Monday at the Palace?
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The pre-Christmas action at the World Darts Championship reaches its penultimate day with a double session of second-round contests this Monday. Alexandra Palace prepares itself for another marathon day of arrows, featuring a blend of emerging talent, established contenders, and one sentimental favourite looking to roll back the years before the festive break.
Read on for the best bet for the PDC World Darts Championship and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
Darts betting tips: PDC World Darts Championship Day 12 Best Bet
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Luke Littler enters this final as the standard-bearer for the sport. His unbeaten run at Alexandra Palace and his relentless 100+ averages make him the formidable favourite. While Van Veen’s run has been heroic, Littler’s proven ability to dominate this specific stage should see him successfully defend his title.
- Gian van Veen boasts a superb 2025 three-dart average of 97.96, significantly higher than Alan Soutar’s 91.56.
- Nathan Aspinall is a prolific maximum hitter, recording 0.36 180s per leg this season compared to Leonard Gates’ 0.22.
- Luke Humphries holds a massive statistical advantage over Paul Lim, with a seasonal average of 98.59 versus Lim’s 85.06.
Aspinall vs Gates — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
The Asp is heavily favoured to progress, with his superior seasonal average and previous H2H dominance reflected in the short pricing.
While Aspinall is expected to dominate, Gates’ fighting spirit suggests he can nick a set, making 3-1 a highly probable outcome.
With Aspinall averaging 0.36 maxes per leg and Gates capable of bursts, the line is set at 7.5 with the ‘Over’ slightly favoured.
Value seekers might look at Aspinall dominating the first set entirely or Gates finding an early maximum.
The afternoon proceedings begin with Darren Beveridge taking on Madars Razma. Beveridge arrives off the back of a stunning debut where he dismantled Dimitri Van den Bergh, averaging 90 and dropping just a single leg. He faces a stern test in Razma, a reliable operator who dispatched Jamai van den Herik with minimum fuss. Following them, Wessel Nijman—arguably the most impressive performer of the first round—meets Gabriel Clemens. Nijman’s 101 average and 50% checkout rate against Karel Sedlacek marked him out as a serious threat, though Clemens’ 170 checkout in his opener suggests the German Giant is ready for a battle.
Scoring Power: 3-Dart Average (2025)
A direct comparison of their seasonal scoring performance highlights the class gap Aspinall brings to the oche this year.
Operating at a world-class level, Aspinall consistently scores heavily enough to put opponents under immediate pressure.
Gates trails significantly in raw scoring power, relying more on finishing and timely checkouts to stay in matches.
Maximums: 180s Per Leg
The ability to find the treble 20 bed is a key differentiator, with Aspinall showing far greater prolificacy this season.
Aspinall is finding the red bit more than once every three legs, a rate that Gates struggles to match.
Gates hits fewer maximums, often switching to 19s, which limits his ability to keep pace in a high-scoring shootout.
Round 1 Efficiency
How efficiently each player navigated their opening round hurdles at the Palace.
Despite a scare, Aspinall closed out his opener with a 170 checkout, showing his clutch ability when required.
Gates was dragged into a deciding set scrap by Mickey Mansell, highlighting his vulnerability against inconsistent opposition.
The session also sees the return of the tournament’s breakout star, David Munyua. The Kenyan produced one of the most memorable comebacks in Ally Pally history to stun Mike de Decker, and the atmosphere will doubtless be electric when he faces Kevin Doets. Rounding off the afternoon, James Wade continues his hunt for the elusive world title against the rapid-fire Ricky Evans. Wade was his typical clinical self in round one, while Evans had to battle past Man Lok Leung.
However, it is the evening session where the title contenders truly flex their muscles, with Luke Humphries, Nathan Aspinall, and Gian van Veen all taking to the oche. It promises to be a fascinating night of contrasting styles and generations.
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Best Bet
At BettingTips4you.com we publish ONE primary pick per event to keep things clear and accountable. We don’t deal in “locks” or guaranteed profits; we look for logical, evidence-based opportunities where the numbers suggest a compelling narrative.
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Gian van Veen & Nathan Aspinall Both To Win 3-1 & Luke Humphries To Win 3-0 at 11/1
This treble focuses on three clear favourites in the evening session, backing them to progress with authority while acknowledging that two of them may face enough resistance to drop a set.
Rationale
Gian van Veen has been widely tipped to go deep in this tournament, and his opening performance justified the hype. The young Dutchman averaged almost 99 in his 3-1 victory over Cristo Reyes, firing in six 180s. He is operating at a significantly higher level than his opponent Alan Soutar, evidenced by a seasonal three-dart average of 97.96 compared to Soutar’s 91.56. However, backing Van Veen to win 3-1 rather than 3-0 makes sense given Soutar’s tenacity. The Scot showed immense grit to survive match darts and win a sudden-death leg against Teemu Harju, and he remains a heavy scorer, hitting nine maximums in that contest. Soutar has the firepower to pinch a set in a scramble, but Van Veen’s superior consistency should see him close it out in four.
Similarly, Nathan Aspinall faces a familiar foe in Leonard Gates. When these two met at this stage twelve months ago, Aspinall emerged a 3-1 victor, and history looks poised to repeat itself. Aspinall’s form in 2025 has been superior, boasting a 95.80 average and a 180s per leg ratio of 0.36, which dwarfs Gates’ 0.22. Gates is a dangerous “scrapper”—as proved by his 3-2 win over Mickey Mansell where he averaged 87—but he often relies on his opponent missing chances. Aspinall was tested in his 3-1 win over Lourence Ilagan but produced a magnificent 170 checkout to seal the deal. While Gates is capable of making things awkward enough to steal a set, especially if Aspinall has a cold spell, the Asp’s class ceiling is simply too high for the American to sustain a challenge over a longer format.
Finally, the anchor of this selection is the world number one, Luke Humphries. He faces 71-year-old legend Paul Lim in a match that is high on nostalgia but likely low on competitiveness. Humphries is averaging 98.59 for the season and cruised past Ted Evetts 3-1 in his opener. Lim’s victory over Jeffrey de Graaf was a wonderful moment, but he averaged 85.06 and is conceding nearly 14 points in average to Cool Hand. The gap in class here is cavernous. Humphries will be fully focused to avoid the upset Lim famously inflicted on him in 2021, and a professional, ruthless 3-0 whitewash looks the most probable outcome against a veteran who would need a lifetime-best performance to keep pace.
What could go wrong? The primary risk lies in the specific scorelines for Van Veen and Aspinall. If Van Veen starts as hotly as Nijman did, he could easily blow Soutar away 3-0 before the Scot settles. Conversely, Leonard Gates can be erratic; if he fails to turn up, Aspinall could coast to a whitewash, or if Aspinall’s doubles desert him, the match could get dragged into a messy five-setter.
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