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Can England keep the Ashes alive under Adelaide lights?
There’s a particular kind of tension that comes with a Test that begins late in the UK and stretches deep into the week, and this one has it in spades. Australia and England meet at Adelaide Oval for the third Ashes Test, running from Tuesday, December 16 through to Saturday, December 20, with the first ball scheduled for 11.30pm GMT on Tuesday night. Read on for the best bet for this event and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
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Cricket betting tips: Australia v England third Ashes Test predictions
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Australia look better set for a decisive Test at Adelaide Oval, with Pat Cummins returning to lead and Nathan Lyon expected back to complete the attack. England have enough batting quality to make it awkward, but Australia’s depth and balance give them the steadier route to victory.
- Travis Head has 199 runs from 4 innings (average 49.75).
- Joe Root has 161 runs from 4 innings (average 53.66).
- Mitchell Starc has 18 wickets from 4 innings (average 14.00).
Australia vs England — bet365 Market Snapshot
Tue 16 Dec, 23:30 GMT • Adelaide Oval • The Ashes • Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and example odds.
Current pricing makes Australia the clear favourite, with the draw also a meaningful third outcome across a five-day Test.
A tight cluster at the top of the pricing, with Steve Smith, Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne setting the early tone for Australia’s batting expectations.
Joe Root sits at the top of England’s pricing, with Harry Brook close behind and a familiar cluster of top-order names next in line.
A quick snapshot of a couple of popular side angles, combining match insurance options with the first key moment of the game at the toss.
That framing changes everything. For Australia, it’s an opportunity to turn sustained pressure into a series-clinching squeeze, the kind that drains the oxygen from opponents over five long days. For England, it’s the opposite: a match that demands clarity, discipline, and the nerve to keep playing their cricket even when the stakes are screaming at them. The Adelaide setting matters too.
Run-Makers So Far: Series Leading Totals
Two names have set the tone with the bat in this contest so far, and their series totals underline where the bulk of the scoring has come from.
Travis Head has 199 runs from four innings, averaging 49.75.
Joe Root has 161 runs from four innings, averaging 53.66.
Wicket Threat: Leading Wicket-Takers
One bowler has been especially decisive so far, while England’s leading wicket-taker has carried a heavy share of the workload.
Mitchell Starc has 18 wickets from four innings, averaging 14.00.
Brydon Carse has nine wickets from three innings, averaging 26.77.
The sense around this ground, and the chat that always follows it, leans toward batting being more doable: flatter surfaces, a quick outfield, shorter square boundaries, and less bounce than some of the earlier stops. If that holds, England’s hopes don’t disappear — but they do shift. It becomes less about surviving a minefield and more about making enough runs, for long enough, that the game stays in their hands.
The teams, as they’re being talked about, add another layer. Australia look set to be boosted by the return of Pat Cummins as captain and Nathan Lyon as the frontline spinner. England, meanwhile, have made a bowling change from Brisbane, bringing in Josh Tongue for Gus Atkinson, while sticking with Will Jacks over Shoaib Bashir. Even before a ball is bowled, it feels like a match where selection and balance — pace, control, and how you build pressure in Adelaide conditions — could tilt the whole week.
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How Australia might shape up
Australia’s predicted XI reads like a side leaning into both authority and flexibility: Jake Weatherald, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Cameron Green, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scott Boland. The interesting wrinkle is right at the top. Khawaja is available, and there’s a scenario where he opens with Weatherald and Head drops to five. There’s another where Head continues to open, and the middle-order reshuffle becomes a conversation around who fits where.
What you can say with confidence is that the spine looks strong. Labuschagne and Smith at three and four is a relentless examination for any attack: they’re the kind of batters who can turn “good enough” spells into hard labour simply by refusing to give you anything. Head, whether opening or coming in at five, brings a different energy — the ability to change tempo and punish anything loose — and Green’s presence gives Australia a seam-bowling option alongside the batting depth. With Cummins back to lead, and Lyon set to return, Australia’s shape has that familiar feel: a pace group you can rotate, plus a spinner who can bowl in any phase, plus a captain who knows exactly how he wants to build a Test match.
England’s response and the selection feel
England’s predicted XI is Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes, Jamie Smith, Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Jofra Archer, Josh Tongue. The headline is the change in the quicks: Tongue in, Atkinson out. That’s a shift in the shape of their attack, and it puts more emphasis on how England manage long spells, especially if Adelaide plays in the calmer, flatter way it’s often described.
With the bat, England have obvious quality in the middle. Root is the anchor, Brook the aggressor, and Stokes the emotional centre — captain and tone-setter rolled into one. The opening pair of Crawley and Duckett will be crucial in a different way from the earlier Tests: if the surface is as batting-friendly as many expect, the job is to cash in rather than merely survive. And if England can bank proper first-innings time, the whole week looks different, because Australia’s bowlers then have to work for every wicket rather than being handed them by conditions.
There’s also a psychological edge to this match that’s hard to ignore. England arrive knowing the series is right on the brink. The talk around the group has included Brendon McCullum pushing back against the idea that careers are on the line, but the basic truth remains: this is the Test that decides whether the tour stays alive as a contest.
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Australia to win
The case for Australia starts with the series situation and the team shape they’re expected to field. They come into Adelaide with the chance to move 3-0 up in a five-Test series, and that kind of leverage tends to sharpen good sides rather than distract them. It’s not just about motivation; it’s about how you manage the moments that decide a Test — the first hour of each innings, the sessions after lunch, the spells that demand patience. With Pat Cummins returning to captain the side, Australia regain a leader who sets those rhythms naturally. Add Nathan Lyon back into the mix and the attack becomes more complete: a pace unit capable of control and bursts, plus a spinner who can hold an end, challenge technique, and give the captain a genuine tactical lever if the pitch settles into the flatter pattern people often associate with Adelaide.
Australia’s batting depth also matters in a match that may reward run-making. The predicted order — Labuschagne at three, Smith at four, Head around the top or at five, Green at six, Carey at seven — gives them multiple ways to build an innings. If the opening configuration changes, it’s still a top six with the capacity to absorb pressure and then flip the game when bowlers tire. And there are individual outputs already on the board in this series that hint at Australia’s ability to seize big moments: Travis Head has 199 runs in four innings, while Steve Smith is listed with a best batting average of 51.50. Those are not guarantees for what comes next, but they do underline that Australia have players currently turning innings into weight on the scoreboard.
England’s pathway is clear enough: they need their batters to enjoy what Adelaide can offer and they need their attack to take 20 wickets across the match, or at least create enough pressure to force errors. There are encouraging notes for them too. Joe Root leads the run-scoring with 161 runs in four innings, and England have pace options in Jofra Archer, Brydon Carse, and now Josh Tongue, with Will Jacks again preferred as the spin option. If the surface is genuinely flatter with less bounce, England’s batting line-up should feel it can spend time out there, and that’s how you drag a Test back toward a draw-or-win conversation.
But the balance of probabilities still leans Australia’s way because their expected XI looks like a side built to win Tests in Australia: strong new-ball options, a proven spinner returning, and a batting core that can take control when conditions are at their kindest. In a match where England need things to go right for long stretches, Australia can win even if only a couple of sessions truly swing their way.
What could go wrong
Adelaide can be a place where batting dominates and games drift, and that’s the obvious danger for an Australia win selection: England’s top order could settle, Root could play a long, authoritative innings, and the match could become a grind where time is the real opponent. England’s bowling mix has enough pace to threaten if they hit the right lengths, and if Australia’s reshuffled top order doesn’t click early, the contest can tighten quickly. Over five days, one dropped chance or one flat spell is sometimes all it takes for a Test to slip out of reach.
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