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Can England spoil Khawaja’s final farewell in Sydney?
The fifth and final Test of this Ashes series gets under way on Saturday night at 23:30, marking the end of a chaotic few weeks down under. Read on for the best bet for this event and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
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Cricket betting tips: Australia v England Fifth Ashes Test predictions
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England’s momentum from Melbourne, combined with Australia’s injury crisis, creates a genuine opening in Sydney. With Josh Tongue fatigued after back-to-back Tests, the fresh Brydon Carse offers the best value to dismantle a fragile top order. Backing him to star in an away win is the smart play.
- Australia have not lost in the last ten matches at the SCG.
- The first-innings average runs per wicket at this ground is 46.1.
- There have been five draws in the last ten Tests at this venue.
Australia vs England — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Despite England’s momentum, Australia remain favourites on home soil. The draw is the outsider due to Sydney’s weather reputation.
Markets suggest boundary hitting will be key, with England backed to clear the ropes often despite their underdog status.
Head, Brook and Stokes are backed to make starts, while Root faces a varied market from boundaries to ducks.
Big returns available for specific boundary hitting and bowling dominance combinations involving Tongue, Stokes and Starc.
While the urn was surrendered in just 11 days, ensuring this series is unlikely to be replayed in highlight packages for decades to come, the narrative took a sharp twist in Melbourne. England’s victory at the MCG, secured on a green top against a depleted Australian attack, breathed life into what many feared was a dead rubber.
Venue Trends: The SCG Factor
Sydney has been a fortress for Australia in recent years, but the nature of the surface often dictates the scoring patterns.
The hosts haven’t lost a Test match at this venue since England’s victory back in 2011.
Inclement weather often plays a part here, leading to a high percentage of stalemates in recent history.
Batting Conditions: Runs per Wicket
First-innings runs are crucial at the SCG, with the pitch historically offering good value for batsmen early in the game.
This high average suggests that establishing a strong platform early is essential for success.
Scoring becomes significantly harder as the match wears on, emphasizing the importance of first-innings leads.
Player Spotlight: Khawaja’s Home Ground
Usman Khawaja’s record at the SCG is exceptional, making him a key figure in his final Test match.
A conversion rate that highlights his comfort and dominance on this specific surface.
Averaging over 50 confirms his class here, providing a solid foundation for Australia’s batting order.
Now the caravan moves to the Sydney Cricket Ground, where the Pink Test will once again raise funds for the McGrath Foundation. For the hosts, the mission is simple: finish the job they started so emphatically in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide. For England, the goal is to become just the second team since early 1987 to win two Tests in an away Ashes series, proving that the ‘Bazball’ philosophy has not died, but merely stumbled.
Khawaja’s final curtain call
The emotional core of this Test match belongs to Usman Khawaja. The veteran opener has announced this will be his final Test, bringing down the curtain on a stellar career. It feels fitting that he bows out at the SCG, the very ground where he made his debut against England in 2011.
Khawaja has been the glue in an otherwise brittle Australian batting lineup this series. Despite suffering a back spasm in Perth that allowed Travis Head to briefly claim the opening spot, and missing the second Test, Khawaja returned with a typically silky 82 in Adelaide. He looked comfortable against the new ball there, and his 29 in the first innings at the MCG was worth double that in the context of the extreme conditions.
His record at the SCG is formidable: four centuries in nine Tests and an average of 50.28. With the England attack missing the express pace of Wood and Archer, Khawaja will not face the hostility he might have feared earlier in the series. He bats at number five this week, a position that shields him from the new ball but keeps him involved enough to dictate play. The stage is set for a farewell century, and his teammates will be desperate to send him off with a win.
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The surface under the microscope
Considerable attention has been paid to the SCG pitch, particularly after Cricket Australia faced financial setbacks from two-day Tests earlier in the series. The commercial reality is that the administrators need this match to go deep into the fourth or fifth day.
Consequently, the curator has shelved any plans for a significant grass covering. The surface will be trimmed to 6mm, down from the 7mm length left last season when the Australia-India Test finished in two-and-a-half days with no side scoring more than 200. This trimming is designed to flatten the wicket out, similar to the deck seen in Adelaide.
However, punters should be wary of assuming this will be a batting paradise. Sheffield Shield matches at the SCG have trialled these new, less dense surfaces over the last two seasons, and the results have been telling: eight scores under 200 in five matches. The batting units on both sides have shown a tendency to collapse—England’s aggressive approach often leads to rapid wickets, while Australia’s middle order has been soft. Even with a shaved pitch, we are unlikely to see a 500-run bore draw.
A battle of attrition
Ultimately, this Test is a battle between two exhausted squads. England have churned through their bowling resources, losing Atkinson to a hamstring strain in Melbourne, while Will Jacks remains in possession of the spin-bowling all-rounder spot ahead of Shoaib Bashir.
Australia are unbeaten in their last 14 Tests at this venue, a record stretching back to 2011. Yet, records are there to be broken. England proved in Melbourne that they can overcome history and conditions. With fresh bowlers like Carse and Potts eager to make a mark before the plane ride home, and Australia missing the engine room of their attack, the visitors have a golden opportunity to bookend a difficult tour with a victory.
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England To Win & Brydon Carse Clear Top England Bowler (1st Innings)
England arrive in Sydney with their tails up, having chased down 175 at the MCG to secure their first win on Australian soil since 2011. While the series is lost, the momentum has shifted significantly, largely due to the severe personnel crisis engulfing the home dressing room.
Australia have retained the Ashes, but they are limping over the finish line. There is no Josh Hazlewood, who has missed the entire series. There is no Pat Cummins, the captain rested after playing four of the five games. There is no Nathan Lyon, the premier spinner ruled out after surgery. Instead, England will face an attack featuring the likes of Scott Boland, Mitchell Starc—who is surely weary playing his fifth Test in succession—and potentially Todd Murphy or Beau Webster. While competent, this is a second-string unit compared to the juggernaut that started the summer.
England, by contrast, have found a method that works on these surfaces. The aggressive batting that failed them in the early Tests came good in Melbourne, with Jacob Bethell showing swagger at number three and the middle order chasing down the target with purpose.
The selection of Brydon Carse as the chief destroyer in the first innings is a logical play based on the rotation and fatigue evident in the England camp. We know that Gus Atkinson and Jofra Archer have already flown home, leaving a significant void. While Josh Tongue has been a revelation, confirming his status as a top-drawer fast bowler, he is entering his third Test in quick succession. The physical toll of back-to-back matches for a young fast bowler is immense, and it is notable that Tongue’s impact has often come later in games—winning the top bowler market in the second innings in Adelaide and the first dig at the MCG. However, asking him to carry the attack again here is a big ask.
Carse, listed in the probable XI, brings fresh legs and high velocity to a surface that might just offer enough help early on. With Matthew Potts also coming in fresh, the workload will be shared, but Carse has the raw attributes to dismantle a top order that is far from secure. Steve Smith has struggled for form and battled vertigo, Marnus Labuschagne has questions to answer, and the opening partnership has been disrupted by injuries throughout the series. Against a fragile top order and without the threat of extreme pace from the other end, Carse is perfectly positioned to make the initial breakthroughs.
What could go wrong The Sydney weather has a reputation for intervening, and a draw is always a possibility here, especially given the history of inclement conditions during the Pink Test. Furthermore, England’s ability to seize defeat from the jaws of victory is well-documented. If the pitch turns out to be a flat road, Australia’s depth—even with a weakened side—could see them grind out a result, particularly if Usman Khawaja delivers a masterclass on his home ground.
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