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Cheltenham’s December card set for a searching stamina test
Saturday’s action at Cheltenham revolves around the Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase on the New Course, the centrepiece of an ITV-televised card run over 2m4½f in demanding winter conditions. After heavy rain earlier in the week and more forecast, the ground is reported as soft throughout, ensuring that every race on the programme is likely to place a premium on stamina, jumping accuracy and tactical awareness. Read on to find the best tips and predictions in addition to the latest betting offers for the December Gold Cup on Saturday December 13 at Cheltenham (1:50 pm).
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Horse racing betting tips: December Gold Cup tips
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Vincenzo appeals as our sole Cheltenham December Gold Cup selection, arriving on the back of a strong Paddy Power Gold Cup second, a workable 2lb rise and ideal soft-ground stamina. Progressive chase form, a prominent racing style and Sam Thomas’s recent strike-rate combine to make him a compelling win bet.
- Vincenzo has yet to finish outside the first two over fences and lines up here just 2lb higher than when chasing home Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
- Jagwar has won four of five starts over fences, including both attempts at this distance on the New Course, but returns from a layoff on a 16lb higher handicap mark.
- Sam Thomas and Jamie Snowden arrive in red-hot form, operating at 38 per cent and 35 per cent strike-rates respectively over the last 14 days.
December Gold Cup Handicap Chase, Cheltenham 13:50 — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our Cheltenham handicap chase analysis.
The early market has Jagwar, Vincenzo and Hoe Joly Smoke a clear trio at the head of the December Gold Cup field, with prices clustered in a tight band for this competitive handicap.
With three places on offer and a deep field, traders expect the principal trio to fill a large chunk of the frame but still leave room for an improver to crash the party.
Soft ground on the New Course and several forward-going types suggest a properly run race, where jumping rhythm and energy conservation up the hill will be decisive.
Market makers lean on Jagwar’s Festival strike-rate, Vincenzo’s sequence of top-two chase efforts and Hoe Joly Smoke’s stamina at this trip when shaping the supporting specials.
With a valuable pot of £125,000 on offer for the feature handicap chase, connections have targeted this meeting with horses who are already proven in big-field contests or who are ready to graduate into that arena. The New Course, more attritional than the Old, typically rewards those who settle, travel and then stay on strongly up the rising hill; that dynamic will shape not only the December Gold Cup but also the surrounding chases on the card.
Several runners line up having already showcased their abilities at Prestbury Park, while others arrive as intriguing recruits from France or from other British tracks, stepping into deeper waters. Soft ground, a stiff circuit and a searching trip should ensure that the day’s racing, headed by the December Gold Cup, becomes as much a test of resilience and attitude as bare ability, setting the scene for a compelling afternoon where nuanced form study can make all the difference.
Trainer Momentum: Last 14 Days vs Season Baseline
Recent yard form is a key pillar at Cheltenham, with Sam Thomas and Jamie Snowden both sending out winners at a much higher clip than their season-long strike-rates suggest.
A 38% return in the last fortnight compares sharply with 2 wins from 33 runners this season overall, underscoring how well Vincenzo’s stable are going into the December Gold Cup.
Six winners from 17 runners (35%) over the last 14 days highlight excellent momentum compared with a 9% seasonal figure of 4 wins from 44, boosting confidence behind Colonel Harry and Ga Law.
Going & Distance: How Jagwar and Vincenzo Match the Test
The December Gold Cup is staged over 2m4½f on the New Course, with soft ground forecast. Existing records at this sort of trip and going help frame expectations for the market leaders.
He is three from seven at roughly 2m4f, two from four on soft going and unbeaten in two starts at Cheltenham, including his Plate success on the New Course at the Festival.
Official figures show one win from seven on this going, yet he has never finished outside the first two over fences and posted a strong second over this trip in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Cheltenham Experience: Big-Field Handicappers at the Track
Previous runs around Cheltenham’s undulating fences often separate those who travel comfortably from those who get found out late, especially in Premier Handicap company.
Two course wins, including the 2022 Paddy Power Gold Cup and another valuable handicap, underline his affinity for the track even if his overall form here has been mixed more recently.
This seasoned handicapper has two wins from 16 visits to Cheltenham and one from ten on soft going, reflecting how often he runs well in defeat rather than dominating these valuable chases.
December Gold Cup preview: class, fitness and ground all in the balance
The Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase has drawn 11 runners and looks a proper mid-winter examination of second-season chasers, seasoned handicappers and unexposed types. With the ground already soft and described as testing, any horse who fails to jump fluently or conserve energy is likely to fold once the field turns for home on the New Course.
At the head of the market sit Jagwar, Hoe Joly Smoke and Vincenzo, a trio with strong form claims but very different profiles. Jagwar was hugely progressive as a novice last campaign, taking four of his five starts over fences and signing off with an impressive success in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. He is two from two at this track, three from seven at around this distance and has a 50 per cent strike-rate on this sort of going, but he now returns from a break and competes from a much higher mark, having risen 16lb for his efforts. He was taken out of the Paddy Power Gold Cup because of deep ground and, although he is clearly ahead of many in terms of raw ability, his yard have managed just one winner from 23 runners in the last fortnight, which tempers enthusiasm in such an exacting race.
Ga Law brings established big-field handicap form, having landed the 2022 Paddy Power Gold Cup and another valuable prize at Cheltenham on Trials Day last year. However, he has not managed to get his head back in front since that latter win and his tendency to hit flat spots or make the odd error has resurfaced. He finished only sixth in this contest last season and his comeback third at Wetherby came after a mistake four out knocked him out of his rhythm, so he now shoulders top weight with something to prove in terms of reliability.
Colonel Harry, another from the Jamie Snowden team, reappeared with a strongly run success in the Grand Sefton at Aintree, suggesting he is back to something like his best after a disrupted previous season. He has solid novice chase form, including victory in the Grade 2 Towton at Wetherby, and he clearly enjoys testing ground. His two prior Cheltenham efforts are easy enough to forgive, having been pitched into the deep end in a Grade 1 and then falling four out here in January. With his trainer operating at a striking 35 per cent in the last 14 days, he is respected, but he must show that his Aintree revival translates to this stiffer track and a sharper test over intermediate trip.
Imperial Saint arrives as a consistent handicapper with proven form over course and distance, having finished third in a Premier Handicap chase here in January. He probably needed his comeback run when fifth in the Old Roan at Aintree after looking reluctant at the start, and his overall profile suggests he will be competitive without necessarily being thrown in. Martator represents Venetia Williams and brings deep experience from a 34-race career, with seven victories, five of them over fences. Versatile in terms of ground, he does, however, usually operate over slightly shorter trips, and this extended distance on very soft going could stretch him late on, even if his trainer has a reputation for producing staying chasers.
Il Ridoto, from the Paul Nicholls yard, is far better than his tally of three wins from 27 chase starts might imply. He is thoroughly battle-hardened at this trip and boasts a wealth of Cheltenham experience, lining up for his 17th run at the track. However, while he has handled soft ground, he tends to show his very best on a sounder surface. He shaped promisingly when second on his reappearance at Chepstow but the ground went against him in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, where he could manage only eighth, and another attritional contest on soft may again blunt his finishing effort, even from a reduced mark.
Es Perfecto needs to bounce back after being pulled up in that same Paddy Power, but his earlier Sandown handicap chase win and solid fifth in the Jack Richard Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival underline that he has the ability to feature if he recaptures his better form. The suspicion remains that he might be more effective if the ground dried out. Hoe Joly Smoke, by contrast, is a strong stayer who has already shown he can handle both good and soft conditions. He finished third behind Panic Attack and Vincenzo in the Paddy Power and now meets that rival on 5lb better terms, which in theory closes the gap. His consistency at this trip, with form over three miles and back-to-back thirds at Cheltenham this autumn, makes him a serious player for Dan Skelton, whose string are ticking along with a 15 per cent strike-rate in the last fortnight.
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Kim Roque rates an intriguing Irish challenger for Joseph Patrick O’Brien. Second on his first start for the yard in a 2m4f handicap chase on the Old Course, he brought solid French form with him, including a chase win and several runs over fences. He is, however, prone to the occasional error, having fallen at Auteuil in May and being less than fluent at Cheltenham last time, and a pronounced preference for good ground would be a concern if the surface remains thoroughly soft. Glengouly looks on a fair mark judged on his previous Irish form and ran respectably when fourth in a strongly run two-mile handicap chase here last month. The longer trip on the New Course could be exactly what he needs, but it has been a long while since his sole chase victory, and bookmakers’ quotes around 33/1 reflect how much improvement he needs to find.
Amid such a competitive field, current trainer and jockey indicators are worth factoring in. Sam Thomas has sent out three winners from just eight runners in the last 14 days, an impressive 38 per cent return, while Dylan Johnston has been steadily gaining experience in these big handicaps. Those recent figures, combined with progressive chase form, help frame the case for the selection.
Best Bet for Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham 1:50, Saturday 13 December
Here at BettingTips4You we focus on providing a single, high-quality prediction rather than a long list of alternatives. For each major race we put forward one clear best bet, making life easier for readers who do not then need to choose between multiple selections. It also makes our performance fully accountable: by nominating just one standout pick per event, we can properly assess profitability and long-term value. For Saturday’s December Gold Cup at Cheltenham, our best bet is:
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Vincenzo to win
Vincenzo shapes like a chaser going very much in the right direction. This progressive son of Doctor Dino has yet to finish outside the first two over fences, underlining both consistency and upside in this discipline. His latest start, a strong second to Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, reads extremely well. He raced prominently throughout, doing the hard yards up front while the winner was ridden patiently from the rear before coming through late. On that form Vincenzo emerged as the best of those who were always in the firing line, and the handicapper has only raised him 2lb, a very fair adjustment for such a prominent effort in a major handicap.
Crucially, that Paddy Power run suggested soft ground over an intermediate trip around Cheltenham suits him perfectly. He stayed on gamely despite being on the sharp end of the pace, and there is every reason to believe that the similar test posed by the December Gold Cup, again over about 2m4½f on soft ground, will play to his strengths. The presence of several forward-going rivals should set up a solid gallop, but Vincenzo has already shown he can maintain a strong position while conserving enough for the climb to the line.
Form lines surrounding that Paddy Power second add further confidence. Panic Attack has subsequently advertised the strength of the race by winning the Coral Gold Cup in even more decisive style, boosting the collateral form and suggesting that horses emerging from that contest with promising efforts are worth following. Hoe Joly Smoke, who finished third behind Panic Attack and Vincenzo and now meets him 5lb better off, is a credible danger, but the visual impression at Cheltenham was that Vincenzo had more class and tactical speed, especially considering he did more work in the early stages.
From a yard perspective, Sam Thomas’s team could hardly be in better order, operating at 38 per cent in the last fortnight, and Vincenzo looks an ideal flagbearer for the stable in this £125,000 feature. His profile as a lightly raced, improving chaser with strong form in a key trial, proven ability to operate prominently and stamina for testing ground makes him the horse who appeals most in a deep and competitive renewal. With only a small rise in the weights and unexposed form at the trip, he stands out as the one to side with in Saturday’s December Gold Cup.
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