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Zaglebie Lubin crestZaglebie Lubin
v
Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia

Ekstraklasa | Sun 18 Oct, 13:45

Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both teams sit mid-table with close points tallies, making this a pivotal fixture for momentum. Zaglebie Lubin has shown a slightly stronger recent form, collecting 7 points in their last matches compared to Jagiellonia's 3, while both sides have displayed attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises tactical battles in midfield, with Zaglebie Lubin aiming to leverage home advantage and sharper finishing to secure a vital win in a tightly contested league.

BT4Y best bet

Zaglebie Lubin to Win

  • Zaglebie Lubin holds a 64.8% to win, offering strong value at 2.55 .
  • Recent form favors Zaglebie Lubin, who have earned 7 points recently versus Jagiellonia's 3.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating open attacking play.
  • Zaglebie Lubin averages 14.6 shots per game with 5 on target, outshooting Jagiellonia's 11.2 shots and 2.4 on target.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Zaglebie Lubin to win based on their superior recent form and offensive metrics, including a higher average of shots and shots on target per game. Despite conceding 1.8 goals per match, their attacking pressure and home advantage create a strong chance to outscore Jagiellonia, who have a weaker defense conceding 2.2 goals per game. The of 25.6% at of 2.55 highlights this as a positive-value bet with solid .

Recent form pointsZaglebie Lubin 7 vs Jagiellonia 3
Strong positive
Average shots per gameZaglebie Lubin 14.6 vs Jagiellonia 11.2
Positive
Goals conceded per gameZaglebie Lubin 1.8 vs Jagiellonia 2.2
Positive
Value edge54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Zaglebie Lubin's recent form and offensive output make them the stronger side to claim victory in this mid-table clash. Their ability to create more shots and maintain pressure should overcome Jagiellonia's defensive frailties, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Zaglebie Lubin's attacking intensity and recent momentum give them a clear edge to secure three points, especially considering Jagiellonia's defensive struggles and lower shot accuracy.”

Key Data Signals

Zaglebie Lubin to Win evidence

Zaglebie Lubin holds a 64.8% to win, offering strong value at 2.55 .

Recent form favors Zaglebie Lubin, who have earned 7 points recently versus Jagiellonia's 3.

Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating open attacking play.

Zaglebie Lubin averages 14.6 shots per game with 5 on target, outshooting Jagiellonia's 11.2 shots and 2.4 on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Zaglebie Lubin to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.5, indicating a moderately open scoring environment.
  • This trend aligns with both teams' attacking tendencies and supports expectations for a competitive match with multiple goal opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Zaglebie Lubin1.4
Avg goals scored
Jagiellonia1
Zaglebie Lubin1.8
Avg goals conceded
Jagiellonia2.2
Zaglebie Lubin80%
BTTS rate
Jagiellonia80%
Zaglebie Lubin60%
Over 2.5 goals
Jagiellonia80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating a high likelihood of goals at both ends. Zaglebie Lubin averages 1.4 goals per game while conceding 1.8, and Jagiellonia scores 1.0 but concedes 2.2, suggesting an open game with chances for both sides to score.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 54.2% for Zaglebie Lubin to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Zaglebie Lubin have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Jagiellonia.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Zaglebie Lubin

LLWWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
10 Oct 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-3
20 Sep 2026H Wisla Plock0-2
15 Sep 2026A Raków Częstochowa3-2
12 Sep 2026H GKS Katowice2-1
07 Sep 2026A Wieczysta Kraków1-1

Jagiellonia

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-3
20 Sep 2026H Legia Warszawa1-3
11 Sep 2026A Wisla Krakow0-2
06 Sep 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
03 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan1-2
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Zaglebie Lubin's recent form shows 7 points gained with a balanced attack and defense, outperforming Jagiellonia's 3 points. This momentum, combined with better shot creation and conversion rates, supports in Lubin's ability to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Zaglebie Lubin Over 2.5
80%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.5, indicating a moderately open scoring environment. This trend aligns with both teams' attacking tendencies and supports expectations for a competitive match with multiple goal opportunities.

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