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Wycombe crestWycombe
v
Notts County crestNotts County

League One | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Wycombe v Notts County Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 15:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wycombe hosts Notts County in a League One clash where Wycombe's recent form and attacking intent stand out. Wycombe has collected 8 points recently, showing a strong offensive output with 2 goals scored and a high rate of matches going over 2.5 goals. Notts County, struggling with only 2 points and a lower scoring rate, face a tough challenge away. The tactical setup suggests Wycombe will press forward aggressively, leveraging their home advantage and superior recent performances to control the game tempo and create chances.

BT4Y best bet

Wycombe to Win

  • Wycombe has a 74% to win, indicating strong in their victory.
  • Wycombe averages 14 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game, significantly higher than Notts County.
  • Notts County's recent form shows only 2 points with a low goal-scoring rate of 0.6 per game.
  • Wycombe's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting open, attacking matches at home.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Wycombe to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking statistics. Wycombe's high shot volume and goal threat, especially from key attackers like D. Ings, underpin this . Notts County's struggles in scoring and lower shot accuracy further tilt the . The price offers positive value given the implied chance is only 51.3%, making Wycombe a strong pick based on both data and tactical context.

Model Chance67.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance67.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Wycombe Shot Volume14 shots per game
Strong positive
Notts County Scoring Rate0.6 goals per game
Negative
Value Edge67.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Wycombe's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the clear tactical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate high-quality chances contrasts with Notts County's scoring struggles, making Wycombe to win a well-supported selection for this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Wycombe to Win

“Wycombe's offensive momentum and shot control create a compelling case for their victory, especially against a Notts County side that has struggled to find the net consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Wycombe to Win evidence

Wycombe has a 74% to win, indicating strong in their victory.

Wycombe averages 14 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game, significantly higher than Notts County.

Notts County's recent form shows only 2 points with a low goal-scoring rate of 0.6 per game.

Wycombe's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting open, attacking matches at home.

What To Watch In The Data

Wycombe to Win notes

  • In the last nine meetings, the average goals scored is 2.56, aligning with Wycombe's high over 2.5 goals rate.
  • This trend suggests a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Wycombe's attacking tempo and Notts County's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wycombe2
Avg goals scored
Notts County0.6
Wycombe2.2
Avg goals conceded
Notts County1.4
Wycombe80%
BTTS rate
Notts County60%
Wycombe80%
Over 2.5 goals
Notts County20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Wycombe's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open games with multiple scoring opportunities. Notts County's lower scoring and defensive vulnerabilities suggest this fixture could see goals from Wycombe, with a moderate chance of both teams scoring given Notts County's 60% BTTS rate.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWycombe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Wycombe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 67.6% for Wycombe to Win sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Wycombe have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 2 for Notts County.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wycombe

LDWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Luton1-4
26 Sep 2026H Reading2-2
19 Sep 2026A Wigan1-0
12 Sep 2026A Leyton Orient3-2
05 Sep 2026H Milton Keynes Dons3-3

Notts County

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Oxford United1-2
19 Sep 2026A Reading0-2
12 Sep 2026H Bradford0-1
05 Sep 2026A Huddersfield1-1
01 Sep 2026A Doncaster1-1
Market aligned with main pickWycombe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Wycombe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Wycombe's recent form shows 8 points gained with a strong offensive output, scoring 2 goals while conceding 2.2 on average. Notts County's 2 points and 0.6 goals scored highlight their struggles. This form disparity suggests Wycombe is in better shape to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Wycombe Over 2.5
20%Notts County Over 2.5
2.56H2H avg goals
In the last nine meetings, the average goals scored is 2.56, aligning with Wycombe's high over 2.5 goals rate. This trend suggests a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Wycombe's attacking tempo and Notts County's defensive vulnerabilities.

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