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Premier League | Sat 02 May, 15:00

Wolves v Sunderland Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 15:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wolves face Sunderland in Premier League on Sat 02 May, 15:00. Sunderland have won the reverse fixture and kept four consecutive clean sheets against Wolves. Sunderland carry the higher win probability given Wolves' 11 home defeats and their failure to find the net in three straight games.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Wolves Win

  • At 11/10, Wolves Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • A comparison of offensive output shows Sunderland creating marginally more sights of goal than the home side.
  • Sunderland have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Wolves.
  • Wolves have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.2 conceded per match, which helps the Wolves Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Wolves sit 20 in the table, while Sunderland sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Wolves Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 32% (-16 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +30.6 pts edge at 3.4.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 32% for Wolves Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Sunderland have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Wolves. A comparison of offensive output shows Sunderland creating marginally more sights of goal than the home side.

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Negative
Sunderland have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Wolves have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
A comparison of offensive output shows Sunderland creating marginally.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Wolves Win is the preferred angle because a comparison of offensive output shows Sunderland creating marginally more sights of goal than the home side. Sunderland have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Wolves. Conceding that scoring level in 34 matches is not disastrous, but it’s enough to ensure that games rarely feel secure.

Main risk

Conceding 45 goals in 34 matches is not disastrous, but it’s enough to ensure that games rarely feel secure.

Key Data Signals

Wolves Win evidence

A comparison of offensive output shows Sunderland creating marginally more sights of goal than the home side.

Sunderland have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Wolves.

Wolves have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.2 conceded per match, which helps the Wolves Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Wolves sit 20 in the table, while Sunderland sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Wolves Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Wolves4
    Avg corners for
    Sunderland4.4
    Wolves9.4
    Avg total corners
    Sunderland10
    Wolves2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Sunderland3
    Wolves9.8
    Avg shots
    Sunderland13.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 54% · edge +19 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Premier League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Wolves0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Sunderland1.2
    Wolves2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Sunderland2.2
    Wolves40%
    BTTS rate
    Sunderland40%
    Wolves80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sunderland60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 29% · edge +30.6 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 28% · edge +3.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Wolves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Wolves to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Wolves

    LLLDW
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    25 Apr 2026H Tottenham0-1
    18 Apr 2026A Leeds0-3
    10 Apr 2026A West Ham0-4
    16 Mar 2026A Brentford2-2
    03 Mar 2026H Liverpool2-1

    Sunderland

    LLWWL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 6L
    24 Apr 2026H Nottingham Forest0-5
    19 Apr 2026A Aston Villa3-4
    12 Apr 2026H Tottenham1-0
    22 Mar 2026A Newcastle2-1
    14 Mar 2026H Brighton0-1
    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 28% · edge +3.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Wolves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Wolves wins
    2Draws
    2Sunderland wins
    18 Oct 2025Sunderland v Wolves2-0
    06 May 2018Sunderland v Wolves3-0
    09 Dec 2017Wolves v Sunderland0-0
    14 Apr 2012Sunderland v Wolves0-0
    04 Dec 2011Wolves v Sunderland2-1
    14 May 2011Sunderland v Wolves1-3
    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 28% · edge +3.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Wolves to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Wolves38
    Played
    Sunderland38
    Wolves0.7
    Avg goals for
    Sunderland1.1
    Wolves1.8
    Avg goals against
    Sunderland1.3
    Wolves4
    Clean sheets
    Sunderland11
    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 28% · edge +3.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Wolves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Wolves to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7Sunderland5438141212-6
    20Wolves203831124-41
    Wolves sit in position 20, while Sunderland sit in position 7, so table pressure belongs in the Wolves Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Wolves Over 2.5
    60%Sunderland Over 2.5
    2.43H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Wolves sit at 80% and Sunderland sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.43 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Wolves v Sunderland prediction

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