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Willem II crestWillem II
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Cambuur crestCambuur

Eredivisie | Sat 24 Oct, 17:45

Willem II v Cambuur Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cambuur visits Willem II in an Eredivisie clash where recent form and tactical efficiency favor the away side. Cambuur has accumulated nine points with a solid defensive record, conceding just one goal per game on average, while Willem II struggles near the bottom with only two points and defensive vulnerabilities. Cambuur's ability to control tempo and exploit defensive gaps will be key, especially given Willem II's high goals conceded rate. The match carries importance for Cambuur to consolidate mid-table safety, while Willem II seeks to escape relegation zone pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Cambuur to Win

  • Cambuur has a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.55 .
  • Willem II concedes 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Cambuur averages 1.8 goals scored per match, showing attacking efficiency.
  • Recent form heavily favors Cambuur with 9 points versus Willem II's 1 point.
  • Cambuur's key players like R. El Arguioui contribute significant goal threat and shots on target.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Cambuur's chances at 70%, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive solidity compared to Willem II's struggles. Cambuur's attack is more productive, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while Willem II concedes heavily. The of over 30% on the of 2.55 confirms this pick as a strong value bet. Player-level data highlights Cambuur's R. El Arguioui as a consistent goal threat, reinforcing the likelihood of an away win. No price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake approach.

Model Chance54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormCambuur 9 pts vs Willem II 1 pt
Strong positive
Defensive RecordWillem II concedes 2.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Key Player ImpactR. El Arguioui 4 goals, 1.23 SOT/90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cambuur's tactical discipline and recent form make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their defensive stability contrasts sharply with Willem II's struggles at the back, and key attackers like R. El Arguioui provide a reliable goal threat. These factors combine to give Cambuur a clear edge in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“Cambuur's balanced approach and effective attacking midfielders give them a distinct advantage over a defensively vulnerable Willem II side. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive shape under pressure is crucial here.”

Key Data Signals

Cambuur to Win evidence

Cambuur has a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.55 .

Willem II concedes 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Cambuur averages 1.8 goals scored per match, showing attacking efficiency.

Recent form heavily favors Cambuur with 9 points versus Willem II's 1 point.

What To Watch In The Data

Cambuur to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent games, suggesting this match could follow a similar pattern with multiple scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Willem II1
Avg goals scored
Cambuur1.8
Willem II2.6
Avg goals conceded
Cambuur1
Willem II80%
BTTS rate
Cambuur60%
Willem II60%
Over 2.5 goals
Cambuur60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, but Cambuur's stronger defense and Willem II's leaky backline suggest a likely open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The goal-scoring threat from Cambuur's attackers supports expectations of goals and a possible BTTS scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCambuur to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Cambuur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 54.2% for Cambuur to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cambuur have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 1 for Willem II.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Willem II

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 7L
17 Oct 2026A Sparta Rotterdam2-3
11 Oct 2026A Utrecht1-3
19 Sep 2026H Fortuna Sittard0-1
15 Sep 2026A Ajax1-5
11 Sep 2026A AZ Alkmaar1-1

Cambuur

DWDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 4L
18 Oct 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-2
11 Oct 2026A PEC Zwolle1-0
19 Sep 2026A ADO Den Haag1-1
12 Sep 2026H NEC Nijmegen3-0
06 Sep 2026A Telstar2-2
Market aligned with main pickCambuur to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Cambuur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Cambuur's recent form is markedly superior, with 9 points gained compared to Willem II's single point in recent matches. This momentum reflects better tactical execution and , which is likely to influence the match outcome decisively in Cambuur's favor.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Willem II Over 2.5
60%Cambuur Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Both teams have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent games, suggesting this match could follow a similar pattern with multiple scoring chances.

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