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Ekstraklasa | Fri 16 Oct, 17:00

Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa Stats

Data last updated: Thu 15 Oct 2026, 08:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ekstraklasa fixture between Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa features two teams with contrasting defensive records and a shared inclination towards open play. Wieczysta Kraków has conceded 1.4 goals per game while scoring at a similar rate, whereas Raków Częstochowa concedes 2.4 goals per game but also scores 1.4. Both sides have shown a high frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, especially Raków with an 80% rate. This suggests a potentially high-scoring encounter with tactical openness and defensive vulnerabilities on both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa both average 1.4 goals scored per game.
  • Raków concedes 2.4 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: 60% for Wieczysta Kraków, 80% for Raków.
  • Average shots per game are high for both sides, around 16, with 5 on target each.
  • No previous head-to-head data, adding unpredictability to the fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 57% chance versus a 47.6% implied market chance, reflecting a 9.4% . Both teams exhibit attacking intent and defensive weaknesses, with Raków's high goals conceded and Wieczysta's openness contributing to a likely goal-rich game. The strong shot volumes and high Over 2.5 Goals rates support the expectation of multiple goals. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team stats, reinforcing in this selection.

Model Chance57% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+9.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+9.4 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge57% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+9.4 pts)
Strong positive
Wieczysta Kraków Defensive Record1.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Raków Częstochowa Defensive Record2.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency to concede multiple goals. The high shot volumes and goal rates from both sides suggest a lively match with several scoring chances, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive openness

“This fixture features two sides with attacking intent but defensive gaps that can lead to a high-scoring game. The statistical indicators and recent trends strongly point towards a match with multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa both average 1.4 goals scored per game.

Raków concedes 2.4 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty.

Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates: 60% for Wieczysta Kraków, 80% for Raków.

Average shots per game are high for both sides, around 16, with 5 on target each.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have frequently surpassed 2.5 goals, with Raków achieving this in 80% of games and Wieczysta Kraków in 60%.
  • The trend suggests a high-tempo encounter with defensive gaps and attacking transitions that favor multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wieczysta Kraków1.4
Avg goals scored
Raków Częstochowa1.4
Wieczysta Kraków1.4
Avg goals conceded
Raków Częstochowa2.4
Wieczysta Kraków60%
BTTS rate
Raków Częstochowa80%
Wieczysta Kraków60%
Over 2.5 goals
Raków Częstochowa80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have demonstrated a strong tendency for high-scoring matches, with Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa averaging 1.4 goals scored per game each. Raków's 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 80% BTTS rate underline the attacking openness and defensive lapses likely to produce multiple goals in this fixture.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 68% · edge +7.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Wieczysta Kraków Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Wieczysta Kraków to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Raków Częstochowa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 57% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+9.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Wieczysta Kraków and 80% for Raków Częstochowa, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wieczysta Kraków

LWDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
12 Oct 2026A GKS Katowice1-2
09 Oct 2026H Wisla Plock3-0
18 Sep 2026A Widzew Łódź2-2
13 Sep 2026A Pogon Szczecin0-2
07 Sep 2026H Zaglebie Lubin1-1

Raków Częstochowa

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 9L
09 Oct 2026H GKS Katowice1-4
19 Sep 2026A Korona Kielce2-3
15 Sep 2026H Zaglebie Lubin2-3
11 Sep 2026H Motor Lublin2-1
06 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 75% · edge +7.1 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Wieczysta Kraków Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Wieczysta Kraków to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Raków Częstochowa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Raków Częstochowa to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows Wieczysta Kraków has earned 5 points with a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Raków Częstochowa has 3 points and an 80% Over 2.5 rate. Both teams have scored and conceded goals consistently, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring match with multiple goal opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Wieczysta Kraków Over 2.5
80%Raków Częstochowa Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have frequently surpassed 2.5 goals, with Raków achieving this in 80% of games and Wieczysta Kraków in 60%. The trend suggests a high-tempo encounter with defensive gaps and attacking transitions that favor multiple goals in this fixture.

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