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West Ham crestWest Ham
v
Leeds crestLeeds

Premier League | Sun 24 May, 16:00

West Ham v Leeds Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 10:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

West Ham face Leeds in Premier League on Sun 24 May, 16:00. Leeds are unbeaten in eight league games and have lost only four of their last 24 top-flight fixtures. Leeds come into this match in superior form, carrying an eight-match unbeaten run. Leeds dictate a higher possession share at 45.

BT4Y lean · price warning

, such as a home win combined with a draw, or a draw combined with an away win

  • At 10/11, West Ham Win implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • West Ham have conceded 17 goals from set pieces this season — only Liverpool have allowed more.
  • Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for West Ham.
  • Leeds have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the West Ham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • West Ham sit 18 in the table, while Leeds sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

, such as a home win combined with a draw, or a draw combined with an away win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 52% while the model sits nearer 27% (-25.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Leeds Draw No Bet shows a +25.5 pts edge at 1.98.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for West Ham Win sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for West Ham. West Ham have conceded that scoring level from set pieces this season — only Liverpool have allowed more.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Negative
Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Leeds have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
West Ham have conceded 17 goals from set pieces.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: West Ham Win is the preferred angle because west Ham have conceded that scoring level from set pieces this season — only Liverpool have allowed more. Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for West Ham. That clarity can be dangerous, but it can also sharpen a team’s focus.

Main risk

That clarity can be dangerous, but it can also sharpen a team’s focus.

Key Data Signals

West Ham Win evidence

West Ham have conceded 17 goals from set pieces this season — only Liverpool have allowed more.

Leeds have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for West Ham.

Leeds have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the West Ham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

West Ham sit 18 in the table, while Leeds sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

West Ham Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    West Ham0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Leeds2
    West Ham1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Leeds0.8
    West Ham40%
    BTTS rate
    Leeds60%
    West Ham60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Leeds60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 62% · edge +1.6 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for West Ham and 60% for Leeds, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Premier League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 57% · edge -30.1 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    West Ham to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    West Ham4
    Avg corners for
    Leeds4
    West Ham8.4
    Avg total corners
    Leeds12
    West Ham2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Leeds1.6
    West Ham11.2
    Avg shots
    Leeds12.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.7 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    West Ham

    LLLWD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    17 May 2026A Newcastle1-3
    10 May 2026H Arsenal0-1
    02 May 2026A Brentford0-3
    25 Apr 2026H Everton2-1
    20 Apr 2026A Crystal Palace0-0

    Leeds

    WDWDW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    17 May 2026H Brighton1-0
    11 May 2026A Tottenham1-1
    01 May 2026H Burnley3-1
    22 Apr 2026A Bournemouth2-2
    18 Apr 2026H Wolves3-0
    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 57% · edge -30.1 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5West Ham wins
    3Draws
    2Leeds wins
    05 Apr 2026West Ham v Leeds2-2
    24 Oct 2025Leeds v West Ham2-1
    21 May 2023West Ham v Leeds3-1
    04 Jan 2023Leeds v West Ham2-2
    16 Jan 2022West Ham v Leeds2-3
    09 Jan 2022West Ham v Leeds2-0
    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 57% · edge -30.1 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    The head-to-head sample gives context for West Ham to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    West Ham38
    Played
    Leeds38
    West Ham1.2
    Avg goals for
    Leeds1.3
    West Ham1.7
    Avg goals against
    Leeds1.5
    West Ham7
    Clean sheets
    Leeds8
    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 57% · edge -30.1 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    West Ham Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Season data supports West Ham to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    14Leeds4738111413-7
    18West Ham393810919-19
    West Ham sit in position 18, while Leeds sit in position 14, so table pressure belongs in the West Ham Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%West Ham Over 2.5
    60%Leeds Over 2.5
    3.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: West Ham sit at 60% and Leeds sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    West Ham v Leeds prediction

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    Betting context

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