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West Brom crestWest Brom
v
Burnley crestBurnley

Championship | Sun 23 Aug, 12:00

West Brom v Burnley Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

West Brom host Burnley in a Championship clash where early season form and tactical stability set the tone. West Brom arrive with a narrow win and strong attacking intent, while Burnley have struggled defensively and managed only a draw so far. The fixture presents a test of West Brom's ability to capitalize on Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities, especially given Burnley's ongoing squad adjustments under new management. Both teams have shown a willingness to attack, promising an open contest with West Brom favored to leverage their sharper momentum and home advantage.

BT4Y best bet

West Brom to Win

  • West Brom have won their opening match and scored twice, showing attacking sharpness.
  • Burnley conceded two goals and have defensive frailties from last season carrying over.
  • Both teams have recorded 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates in recent matches.
  • West Brom average fewer corners but maintain solid discipline with more yellow cards than Burnley.
  • Burnley's top attacker Z. Flemming is prolific but West Brom's J. Morgan offers creative threat and assists.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors West Brom to win with a 56.4% chance, reflecting their early season form and home advantage. West Brom's attacking efficiency and defensive solidity contrast with Burnley's ongoing defensive struggles and squad rebuilding. The of 12.9% indicates the offer good value given West Brom's momentum and tactical cohesion. Player data supports this with West Brom's attackers contributing goals and key passes, while Burnley's defensive risks remain high. The model notes no data limitations, reinforcing in this pick.

Model Chance56.4%
Strong positive
Implied Chance43.5%
Positive
Value Edge12.9%
Strong positive
Recent FormWest Brom stronger with 3 points vs Burnley's 1
Positive
Defensive StabilityBurnley conceded 75 goals last season
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

West Brom's early season attacking form and home advantage make them the logical choice to secure victory. Burnley's defensive frailties and squad changes under new management leave them vulnerable, while West Brom's sharper offensive players and tactical cohesion provide a clear edge in this contest.

Main risk

Although Crysencio Summerville and Mateus Fernandes departed for substantial fees, retaining Jarrod Bowen gives Nuno Espirito Santo proven attacking continuity.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“West Brom's blend of attacking creativity and defensive resilience, combined with Burnley's unsettled backline, positions them well to claim all three points in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

West Brom to Win evidence

West Brom have won their opening match and scored twice, showing attacking sharpness.

Burnley conceded two goals and have defensive frailties from last season carrying over.

Both teams have recorded 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates in recent matches.

West Brom average fewer corners but maintain solid discipline with more yellow cards than Burnley.

What To Watch In The Data

West Brom to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, with recent matches showing a trend towards over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams' recent matches have featured high goal totals, suggesting a fast tempo and open play that favors goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

West Brom2
Avg corners for
Burnley5
West Brom10
Avg total corners
Burnley11
West Brom2
Avg yellow cards
Burnley1
West Brom9
Avg shots
Burnley18
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Burnley average more corners (5) compared to West Brom (2), reflecting their attacking pressure despite defensive issues. West Brom accumulate more yellow cards on average (2) than Burnley (1), indicating a more physical approach. Shot data shows Burnley take more shots (18) and shots on target (6) than West Brom, suggesting West Brom will need to manage defensive transitions carefully.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

West Brom2
Avg goals scored
Burnley2
West Brom1
Avg goals conceded
Burnley2
West Brom100%
BTTS rate
Burnley100%
West Brom100%
Over 2.5 goals
Burnley100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 75% · edge +12.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have shown a 100% rate for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score in recent matches, indicating an open game with attacking intent from both sides. West Brom's ability to score combined with Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities suggests goals at both ends are likely in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWest Brom to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
West Brom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The for West Brom to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the at 56.4% exceeding the implied market chance of 43.5%. This suggests the price of 2.3 offers good value given West Brom's form and home advantage. The market is not price-sensitive and supports backing West Brom confidently.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

West Brom

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
15 Aug 2026A Norwich2-1

Burnley

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
16 Aug 2026H West Ham2-2
Market aligned with main pickWest Brom to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
West Brom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
West Brom's opening match win and scoring two goals contrasts with Burnley's draw and two goals conceded, highlighting early momentum for the home side. Both teams have shown attacking promise but West Brom's ability to secure points and maintain defensive shape gives them an edge in form.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2West Brom wins
6Draws
2Burnley wins
11 Mar 2025Burnley v West Brom1-1
07 Nov 2024West Brom v Burnley0-0
20 Jan 2023Burnley v West Brom2-1
02 Sep 2022West Brom v Burnley1-1
20 Feb 2021Burnley v West Brom0-0
19 Oct 2020West Brom v Burnley0-0
Market aligned with main pickWest Brom to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The head-to-head record over 10 matches shows an average of 1.9 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While no overwhelming control is evident, West Brom's recent form and home advantage provide a stronger platform for success in this matchup.
Season team stats

Championship

West Brom1
Played
Burnley1
West Brom2
Avg goals for
Burnley2
West Brom1
Avg goals against
Burnley2
West Brom0
Clean sheets
Burnley0
Market aligned with main pickWest Brom to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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West Brom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
West Brom's season stats show a balanced attack and defense with 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded so far, supporting their winning chances. Burnley's defensive record remains a concern, with 2 goals conceded and a history of 75 conceded last season, indicating ongoing vulnerabilities that West Brom can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7West Brom311001
11Burnley110100
West Brom sit 7th with 3 points, while Burnley are 11th with 1 point early in the season. The standings reflect West Brom's stronger start and home advantage, adding pressure on Burnley to respond and increasing the likelihood of West Brom maintaining their form advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%West Brom Over 2.5
100%Burnley Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, with recent matches showing a trend towards over 2.5 goals. Both teams' recent matches have featured high goal totals, suggesting a fast tempo and open play that favors goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

West Brom v Burnley prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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