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Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen
v
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund

Bundesliga | Sat 16 May, 14:30

Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 10:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Werder Bremen face Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga on Sat 16 May, 14:30. Dortmund have the superior quality to win this clash, but Bremen's ability to score at home combined with Dortmund's recent lack of away clean sheets makes Both Teams to Score a likely companion to the away victory in.

BT4Y best bet

The winner of the match (Dortmund) and also correctly predict that both teams will score at least one goal

  • At 15/2, Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • Bremen have conceded 11 in their last six, emphasizing the defensive fragility Dortmund's frontline will look to exploit.
  • Borussia Dortmund need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Werder Bremen on 4 and Borussia Dortmund on 6.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Werder Bremen and 40% for Borussia Dortmund.
  • Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.2 for Werder Bremen and 1.6 for Borussia Dortmund are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 52% for Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Borussia Dortmund need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Werder Bremen on 4 and Borussia Dortmund on 6. Bremen have conceded 11 in their last six, emphasizing the defensive fragility Dortmund's frontline will look to exploit.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Borussia Dortmund need the result edge to pair with scoring.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Bremen have conceded 11 in their last six, emphasizing.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because bremen have conceded 11 in their last six, emphasizing the defensive fragility Dortmund's frontline will look to exploit. Borussia Dortmund need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Werder Bremen on 4 and Borussia Dortmund on 6. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS evidence

Bremen have conceded 11 in their last six, emphasizing the defensive fragility Dortmund's frontline will look to exploit.

Borussia Dortmund need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Werder Bremen on 4 and Borussia Dortmund on 6.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Werder Bremen and 40% for Borussia Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.2 for Werder Bremen and 1.6 for Borussia Dortmund are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Werder Bremen1.2
Avg goals scored
Borussia Dortmund1.6
Werder Bremen1.8
Avg goals conceded
Borussia Dortmund1.2
Werder Bremen80%
BTTS rate
Borussia Dortmund40%
Werder Bremen60%
Over 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 33% · edge +12 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 77%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBorussia Dortmund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Borussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Borussia Dortmund Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Werder Bremen5
Avg corners for
Borussia Dortmund4
Werder Bremen12
Avg total corners
Borussia Dortmund6.4
Werder Bremen2
Avg yellow cards
Borussia Dortmund2.2
Werder Bremen11.8
Avg shots
Borussia Dortmund11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 51% · edge +5.7 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Werder Bremen

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
09 May 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim0-1
02 May 2026H FC Augsburg1-3
26 Apr 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-1
18 Apr 2026H Hamburger SV3-1
12 Apr 2026A 1. FC Köln1-3

Borussia Dortmund

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 4L
08 May 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt3-2
03 May 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach0-1
26 Apr 2026H SC Freiburg4-0
18 Apr 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim1-2
11 Apr 2026H Bayer Leverkusen0-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 77% · edge +4.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Borussia Dortmund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Borussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Werder Bremen wins
2Draws
7Borussia Dortmund wins
13 Jan 2026Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen3-0
25 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen2-2
31 Aug 2024Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund0-0
09 Mar 2024Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund1-2
20 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen1-0
11 Feb 2023Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund0-2
Market aligned with main pickBorussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +5.4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The head-to-head sample gives context for Borussia Dortmund to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Bundesliga

Werder Bremen34
Played
Borussia Dortmund34
Werder Bremen1.1
Avg goals for
Borussia Dortmund2.1
Werder Bremen1.8
Avg goals against
Borussia Dortmund1
Werder Bremen6
Clean sheets
Borussia Dortmund15
Market aligned with main pickBorussia Dortmund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Borussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season data supports Borussia Dortmund Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Borussia Dortmund7334227536
15Werder Bremen32348818-23
Werder Bremen sit in position 15, while Borussia Dortmund sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Borussia Dortmund Win & BTTS assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Werder Bremen Over 2.5
60%Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Werder Bremen sit at 60% and Borussia Dortmund sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund prediction

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Betting context

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