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Wales crestWales
v
Denmark crestDenmark

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 19:45

Wales v Denmark Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 02:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wales face Denmark in UEFA Nations League on Sun 04 Oct, 19:45. Wales have lost their last four meetings with Denmark, with their most recent victory in the fixture coming in 2008.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score - Yes

  • At 4/6, Both Teams To Score - Yes implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score - Yes.
  • Wales show a 33% BTTS rate and Denmark show a 67% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Wales average 0.67 goals scored and Denmark average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Both Teams To Score - Yes sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Wales show a 33% BTTS rate and Denmark show a 67% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score - Yes.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
Wales show a 33% BTTS rate and Denmark show a.Visible data support
Positive
Wales average 0.67 goals scored and Denmark average 2, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Both Teams To Score - Yes.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Both Teams To Score - Yes. Wales show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Denmark show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Wales’ recent scoring and Denmark’s defensive lapses suggest both sides can score, but a narrow draw is likely.

Main risk

Wales’ recent scoring and Denmark’s defensive lapses suggest both sides can score, but a narrow draw is likely.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score - Yes evidence

Selection: Both Teams To Score - Yes.

Wales show a 33% BTTS rate and Denmark show a 67% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Wales average 0.67 goals scored and Denmark average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score - Yes notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wales0.67
Avg goals scored
Denmark2
Wales1.33
Avg goals conceded
Denmark2.33
Wales33%
BTTS rate
Denmark67%
Wales33%
Over 2.5 goals
Denmark67%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 62% · edge +5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 33% for Wales and 67% for Denmark, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 62% · edge +5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Wales to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Wales Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Denmark to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wales

WLL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
01 Oct 2026H Norway2-1
27 Sep 2026A Denmark0-2
24 Sep 2026A Portugal0-1

Denmark

LWL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
01 Oct 2026H Portugal2-4
27 Sep 2026H Wales2-0
24 Sep 2026A Norway2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Wales to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Wales Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Denmark to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Denmark Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Wales Over 2.5
67%Denmark Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Wales sit at 33% and Denmark sit at 67% with the H2H average at 2.75 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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