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Villarreal crestVillarreal
v
Sevilla crestSevilla

La Liga | Wed 13 May, 18:00

Villarreal v Sevilla Stats

Data last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026, 03:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Villarreal face Sevilla in La Liga on Wed 13 May, 18:00. Villarreal have won 14 of their 17 home league matches this season, collecting 43 points at La Cerámica. Sevilla are struggling away from home, losing their last four consecutive trips.

BT4Y best bet

Villarreal Win

  • At 8/11, Villarreal Win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Villarreal have been formidable at La Cerámica, winning 14 of their 17 home matches this season.
  • Villarreal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Sevilla.
  • Villarreal have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Villarreal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Villarreal sit 3 in the table, while Sevilla sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for Villarreal Win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Villarreal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Sevilla. Villarreal have been formidable at La Cerámica, winning 14 of their 17 home matches this season.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Neutral
Villarreal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Villarreal have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Villarreal have been formidable at La Cerámica, winning 14.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Villarreal Win is the preferred angle because villarreal have been formidable at La Cerámica, winning 14 of their 17 home matches this season. Villarreal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Sevilla. Sevilla concede an average of that scoring level per game recently, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible as they fight hard but fall short.

Main risk

Sevilla concede an average of 1.7 goals per game recently, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible as they fight hard but fall short.

Key Data Signals

Villarreal Win evidence

Villarreal have been formidable at La Cerámica, winning 14 of their 17 home matches this season.

Villarreal have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 9 for Sevilla.

Villarreal have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Villarreal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Villarreal sit 3 in the table, while Sevilla sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Villarreal Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Villarreal2.2
    Avg goals scored
    Sevilla1.2
    Villarreal1
    Avg goals conceded
    Sevilla1.2
    Villarreal100%
    BTTS rate
    Sevilla60%
    Villarreal60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sevilla60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 79%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickVillarreal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.2 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 73%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Villarreal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.58
    Check odds @ 1.58
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Villarreal to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Villarreal4.2
    Avg corners for
    Sevilla4.6
    Villarreal11.2
    Avg total corners
    Sevilla9
    Villarreal2
    Avg yellow cards
    Sevilla3.4
    Villarreal11.8
    Avg shots
    Sevilla13.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 42% · edge +31.1 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Villarreal

    DWWDW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    10 May 2026A Mallorca1-1
    02 May 2026H Levante5-1
    26 Apr 2026H Celta Vigo2-1
    23 Apr 2026A Oviedo1-1
    12 Apr 2026A Athletic Club2-1

    Sevilla

    WWLLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    09 May 2026H Espanyol2-1
    04 May 2026H Real Sociedad1-0
    26 Apr 2026A Osasuna1-2
    23 Apr 2026A Levante0-2
    11 Apr 2026H Atletico Madrid2-1
    Market aligned with main pickVillarreal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.2 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Villarreal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.58
    Check odds @ 1.58
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Villarreal wins
    3Draws
    2Sevilla wins
    23 Sep 2025Sevilla v Villarreal1-2
    25 May 2025Villarreal v Sevilla4-2
    23 Aug 2024Sevilla v Villarreal1-2
    11 May 2024Villarreal v Sevilla3-2
    03 Dec 2023Sevilla v Villarreal1-1
    23 Apr 2023Sevilla v Villarreal2-1
    Market aligned with main pickVillarreal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.2 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Villarreal to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    La Liga

    Villarreal38
    Played
    Sevilla38
    Villarreal1.9
    Avg goals for
    Sevilla1.2
    Villarreal1.2
    Avg goals against
    Sevilla1.6
    Villarreal8
    Clean sheets
    Sevilla6
    Market aligned with main pickVillarreal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.2 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Villarreal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
    1.58
    Check odds @ 1.58
    Season data supports Villarreal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Villarreal72382261026
    13Sevilla433812719-14
    Villarreal sit in position 3, while Sevilla sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Villarreal Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Villarreal Over 2.5
    60%Sevilla Over 2.5
    3.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Villarreal sit at 60% and Sevilla sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Villarreal v Sevilla prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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