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Vila Nova crestVila Nova
v
São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo

Serie B | Mon 06 Jul, 23:00

Vila Nova v São Bernardo Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 18:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vila Nova face São Bernardo in Serie B on Mon 06 Jul, 23:00. Vila Nova boast an exceptional 16-match unbeaten home streak in the league and have collected maximum points from their last three matches at Estádio Vila Nova.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 19/20, Under 2 implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • A single goal should break the deadlock for the powerful home side in a tightly controlled environment.
  • Vila Nova have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for São Bernardo.
  • São Bernardo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Under 2 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Vila Nova sit 3 in the table, while São Bernardo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Under 2 sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. Vila Nova have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for São Bernardo. A single goal should break the deadlock for the powerful home side in a tightly controlled environment.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Positive
Vila Nova have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
São Bernardo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
A single goal should break the deadlock for the.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Vila Nova Win is the preferred angle because a single goal should break the deadlock for the powerful home side in a tightly controlled environment. Vila Nova have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for São Bernardo. Camargo scored for Vila Nova in that game, but goals from Luis Felipe Oyama and Juninho left them beaten.

Main risk

Camargo scored for Vila Nova in that game, but goals from Luis Felipe Oyama and Juninho left them beaten.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

A single goal should break the deadlock for the powerful home side in a tightly controlled environment.

Vila Nova have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for São Bernardo.

São Bernardo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Vila Nova Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Vila Nova sit 3 in the table, while São Bernardo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Vila Nova1.4
    Avg goals scored
    São Bernardo0.8
    Vila Nova1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    São Bernardo1
    Vila Nova40%
    BTTS rate
    São Bernardo40%
    Vila Nova40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    São Bernardo20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Vila Nova and 20% for São Bernardo, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Vila Nova

    LWLWW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    26 Jun 2026A Novorizontino1-2
    20 Jun 2026H Nautico Recife4-3
    14 Jun 2026A Cuiaba0-1
    09 Jun 2026H Botafogo SP1-0
    31 May 2026A Londrina1-0

    São Bernardo

    LLDWD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    27 Jun 2026A Criciuma0-1
    21 Jun 2026H Juventude0-1
    14 Jun 2026H Sport Recife0-0
    07 Jun 2026A CRB3-2
    31 May 2026H Novorizontino1-1
    Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Vila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Vila Nova v São Bernardocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Vila Nova341910455
    10São Bernardo27207675
    Vila Nova sit in position 3, while São Bernardo sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the Under 2 assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Vila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Vila Nova to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Vila Nova5.2
    Avg corners for
    São Bernardo2.4
    Vila Nova11.6
    Avg total corners
    São Bernardo8.6
    Vila Nova2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    São Bernardo3.2
    Vila Nova13.4
    Avg shots
    São Bernardo11.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 58% · edge +1.5 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Vila Nova wins
    0Draws
    0São Bernardo wins
    Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Vila Nova to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Vila Nova19
    Played
    São Bernardo20
    Vila Nova1.4
    Avg goals for
    São Bernardo1.4
    Vila Nova1.2
    Avg goals against
    São Bernardo1.2
    Vila Nova4
    Clean sheets
    São Bernardo5
    Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Vila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Season data supports Vila Nova to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Vila Nova Over 2.5
    20%São Bernardo Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Vila Nova sit at 40% and São Bernardo sit at 20%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Vila Nova v São Bernardo prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    full betting preview for Vila Nova v São Bernardocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre