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Vila Nova crestVila Nova
v
São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo

Serie B | Mon 06 Jul, 23:00

Vila Nova v São Bernardo Stats

Data last updated: Sun 05 Jul 2026, 03:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vila Nova and São Bernardo meet in a Serie B clash where physicality and tactical intensity are expected to shape the contest. Vila Nova sits third with a solid points tally, while São Bernardo is close behind in fifth, both teams eager to maintain momentum. Vila Nova's recent matches show a moderate scoring rate but a tendency for aggressive play, while São Bernardo's defensive resilience is coupled with a combative midfield. The fixture promises a competitive battle with potential for disciplinary action as both sides seek to assert control and capitalize on set-piece opportunities.

BT4Y match pick

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Vila Nova averages 2.8 yellow cards per game, São Bernardo 4.0, indicating a high card count potential.
  • Both teams have moderate fouling rates, with São Bernardo's Hyoran winning 4.46 fouls per 90 minutes, suggesting frequent stoppages.
  • Player data shows Vila Nova's Pedro Romano has a high card risk with 4 yellows and 1.69 fouls per 90 minutes.
  • Recent form data supports a physical game, with Vila Nova and São Bernardo averaging 2.8 and 4 yellow cards respectively per match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 75% chance for over 3.5 cards, supported by both teams' aggressive defensive styles and high fouling rates. Vila Nova's average of 2.8 yellows and São Bernardo's 4 yellows per game reflect a pattern of physical contests. Player-level data highlights individuals like Pedro Romano and Hyoran who contribute to frequent fouls and card risks. This combination of team discipline profiles and individual tendencies underpins the strong likelihood of a card-heavy match. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Team Fouling and Card RatesVila Nova 2.8 yellows/game, São Bernardo 4 yellows/game
Strong positive
Player Card RiskPedro Romano 4 yellows, 1.69 fouls/90
Positive
Fouls Won Indicating Physical PlayHyoran 4.46 fouls won/90
Positive
Model Confidence75% chance Over 3.5 Cards
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged encounter as Vila Nova and São Bernardo battle for Serie B points. Vila Nova's aggressive midfield and São Bernardo's combative approach suggest frequent fouls and disciplinary actions. The data confirms both sides' tendencies to accumulate cards, making over 3.5 cards a logical selection for this fixture.

Main risk

The main risk is a potential tactical shift toward discipline or early cautions limiting further cards, which could reduce the total card count below 3.5.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Card market analysis

“This fixture's card potential is driven by São Bernardo's high foul rate and Vila Nova's aggressive defensive style, creating a perfect storm for multiple cautions.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Vila Nova averages 2.8 yellow cards per game, São Bernardo 4.0, indicating a high card count potential.

Both teams have moderate fouling rates, with São Bernardo's Hyoran winning 4.46 fouls per 90 minutes, suggesting frequent stoppages.

Player data shows Vila Nova's Pedro Romano has a high card risk with 4 yellows and 1.69 fouls per 90 minutes.

Recent form data supports a physical game, with Vila Nova and São Bernardo averaging 2.8 and 4 yellow cards respectively per match.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown low over 2.5 goals rates but high fouling and card counts, indicating a game tempo that favors physical contests over open attacking play.
  • This trend suggests a match with frequent interruptions and a higher card total rather than goal-heavy outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vila Nova1.4
Avg goals scored
São Bernardo0.8
Vila Nova1.2
Avg goals conceded
São Bernardo1
Vila Nova40%
BTTS rate
São Bernardo40%
Vila Nova40%
Over 2.5 goals
São Bernardo20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams have modest scoring rates and moderate BTTS percentages, suggesting a balanced game where defensive fouls and tactical fouling may be more prominent than open attacking play. This context supports a scenario with frequent interruptions and cards rather than high goal totals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vila Nova

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
26 Jun 2026A Novorizontino1-2
20 Jun 2026H Nautico Recife4-3
14 Jun 2026A Cuiaba0-1
09 Jun 2026H Botafogo SP1-0
31 May 2026A Londrina1-0

São Bernardo

LLDWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
27 Jun 2026A Criciuma0-1
21 Jun 2026H Juventude0-1
14 Jun 2026H Sport Recife0-0
07 Jun 2026A CRB3-2
31 May 2026H Novorizontino1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 80% · edge +6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
São Bernardo to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent matches show Vila Nova averaging 2.8 yellow cards and São Bernardo 4, confirming a pattern of physical play. Both teams have maintained competitive intensity, with fouling and disciplinary actions consistent across recent fixtures, reinforcing the likelihood of over 3.5 cards in this match.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Vila Nova28158436
5São Bernardo25157448
Vila Nova's third place and São Bernardo's fifth position in Serie B underline the competitive stakes, likely intensifying physical battles. While the table does not directly dictate card counts, the pressure to secure points in a tight race can increase aggressive play and fouling frequency.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
São Bernardo to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The over 3.5 cards market is well supported by the teams' disciplinary records, with São Bernardo averaging 4 yellows per game and Vila Nova 2.8. The model's 75% chance reflects this strong data alignment, indicating a reliable price range without current warning flags.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vila Nova5.2
Avg corners for
São Bernardo2.25
Vila Nova11.6
Avg total corners
São Bernardo7.25
Vila Nova2.8
Avg yellow cards
São Bernardo4
Vila Nova13.4
Avg shots
São Bernardo12
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The match features a high volume of fouls and cards, with Vila Nova averaging 2.8 yellows and São Bernardo 4 per game. Shot volumes are moderate, indicating a game with contested possession and physical challenges rather than dominant attacking pressure, which often leads to more cards and fouls.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Vila Nova wins
0Draws
0São Bernardo wins
Best odds for this sectionVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
São Bernardo to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
No previous meetings between Vila Nova and São Bernardo exist to provide direct historical context. Therefore, current season form, disciplinary records, and player tendencies carry greater weight in anticipating the match's physical nature and card likelihood.
Season team stats

Serie B

Vila Nova15
Played
São Bernardo15
Vila Nova1.5
Avg goals for
São Bernardo1.3
Vila Nova1.1
Avg goals against
São Bernardo0.8
Vila Nova4
Clean sheets
São Bernardo5
Best odds for this sectionVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
São Bernardo to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Season-long data reveals Vila Nova concedes 1.2 goals per game and São Bernardo 1.0, with both teams showing aggressive defensive approaches reflected in their high yellow card averages. This persistent physicality throughout the season supports the over 3.5 cards market as a strong statistical trend.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vila Nova Over 2.5
20%São Bernardo Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have shown low over 2.5 goals rates but high fouling and card counts, indicating a game tempo that favors physical contests over open attacking play. This trend suggests a match with frequent interruptions and a higher card total rather than goal-heavy outcomes.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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