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Juventude crestJuventude

Serie B | Sat 31 Oct, 20:30

Vila Nova v Juventude Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

At the Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude face Vila Nova in a crucial Serie B clash with promotion implications. Juventude aim to leverage their strong home defensive record and possession control to dominate the match, while Vila Nova seek to overcome recent away struggles and maintain their high league standing. The tactical battle will focus on Juventude's wide play and transition threat against Vila Nova's resilience, with both sides aware that this top-six encounter could shape the promotion race.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Position, acting as a crucial outlet for Juventude's wide patterns of play

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 42%, above the 27% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Juventude average 51% possession and 78% pass accuracy, enabling controlled build-up and wide attacks.
  • Mandaca and Aderlan are key in Juventude's offensive transitions and wide play, creating high-quality chances.
  • Vila Nova have been winless in their last two away league matches, showing defensive vulnerability on the road.
  • Both teams have strong defensive records, suggesting a tactical, possession-based game with limited wide overloads.
Price warning

Position, acting as a crucial outlet for Juventude's wide patterns of play is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 42% while the model sits nearer 27% (-14.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Juventude Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.88.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The pick highlights Juventude's role as a crucial outlet in wide attacking patterns, supported by their strong possession stats and tactical setup. Juventude's home form and ability to control tempo create opportunities for wide players like Aderlan to influence the game. Vila Nova's recent away difficulties and defensive lapses increase the likelihood of Juventude exploiting wide areas effectively. The model is moderate, reflecting tactical nuances and player roles that favor Juventude's wide play as a key factor.

Price / value27% model chance vs 42% implied (-14.7 pts)
Negative
Juventude possession and passing51% possession, 78% pass accuracy
Strong positive
Vila Nova away formWinless last 2 away league games
Positive
Key wide playersAderlan and Mandaca influence wide and transition play
Strong positive
Defensive solidityBoth teams have strong defensive records limiting wide overloads
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Juventude's tactical emphasis on wide play and possession control, combined with Vila Nova's recent away struggles, makes Juventude's wide attacking outlets a pivotal factor in this match. The data shows Juventude's ability to create quality chances from wide positions, which should be decisive in breaking down Vila Nova's defense and securing a positive result.

Main risk

The 35-year-old defender has already registered one assist this season, but his underlying production indicates a much higher creative ceiling.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player role analysis

“Juventude's structured build-up and reliance on wide players like Aderlan provide a clear route to goal, especially against a Vila Nova side vulnerable on the road. This tactical setup makes wide play a key battleground in the match.”

Key Data Signals

Position, acting as a crucial outlet for Juventude's wide patterns of play evidence

Juventude average 51% possession and 78% pass accuracy, enabling controlled build-up and wide attacks.

Mandaca and Aderlan are key in Juventude's offensive transitions and wide play, creating high-quality chances.

Vila Nova have been winless in their last two away league matches, showing defensive vulnerability on the road.

Both teams have strong defensive records, suggesting a tactical, possession-based game with limited wide overloads.

What To Watch In The Data

Position, acting as a crucial outlet for Juventude's wide patterns of play notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is low at 0.9, reflecting tight tactical battles.
  • Juventude's high over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Vila Nova's lower rate, indicating that while the fixture tends to be cautious, Juventude's attacking wide play could increase goal opportunities in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vila Nova1.4
Avg goals scored
Juventude2.6
Vila Nova1
Avg goals conceded
Juventude0.8
Vila Nova40%
BTTS rate
Juventude40%
Vila Nova40%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventude80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Juventude's high shot volume and focus on inside-box shooting contrast with Vila Nova's lower away goal rate, suggesting a controlled game with selective attacking bursts. Both teams' defensive solidity and low BTTS rates indicate a tactical match where goals may be limited but quality chances from wide areas remain crucial.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionJuventude Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Juventude to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 27% for Position, acting as a crucial outlet for Juventude's wide patterns of play sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (-14.7 pts). Facing a Vila Nova side that displays clear away inconsistency, Juventude will comfortably dominate the territory and dictate the game state.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vila Nova

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
24 Oct 2026A São Bernardo2-3
18 Oct 2026H Novorizontino2-2
11 Oct 2026A Nautico Recife2-0
08 Oct 2026H Cuiaba0-0
03 Oct 2026A Botafogo SP1-0

Juventude

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
26 Oct 2026H Nautico Recife4-0
17 Oct 2026A Ceara2-2
11 Oct 2026H São Bernardo2-2
07 Oct 2026A Ponte Preta2-0
03 Oct 2026H Operario-PR3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +15 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Juventude Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Juventude to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Juventude's recent home form is strong, with consecutive wins and clean sheets, underpinning their in controlling matches through possession and wide play. Vila Nova's recent away form shows vulnerability, with no wins in their last two away league games, increasing the likelihood of Juventude exploiting wide channels effectively.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vila Nova Over 2.5
80%Juventude Over 2.5
0.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is low at 0.9, reflecting tight tactical battles. Juventude's high over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Vila Nova's lower rate, indicating that while the fixture tends to be cautious, Juventude's attacking wide play could increase goal opportunities in this match.

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