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Cremonese crestCremonese

Serie B | Sun 08 Nov, 18:30

Vicenza Virtus v Cremonese Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Vicenza Virtus hosting Cremonese in a fixture where Cremonese holds a slight edge in recent form and league position. Vicenza Virtus sits 17th with 9 points, struggling defensively with an average of 2 goals conceded per game, while Cremonese ranks 11th with 12 points and a more solid defensive record conceding 0.8 goals per match. Cremonese's tactical setup emphasizes defensive solidity and efficient counterattacks, which could exploit Vicenza's defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have shown contrasting goal-scoring patterns, adding intrigue to this encounter at an undecided venue.

BT4Y best bet

Cremonese to Win

  • Cremonese has a 58.1% to win, with strong value at of 2.45.
  • Vicenza Virtus concedes 2 goals per game, while Cremonese concedes only 0.8, indicating defensive strength for Cremonese.
  • Vicenza Virtus has a high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%), but Cremonese's rate is just 20%, suggesting a tighter game if Cremonese controls tempo.
  • Bonazzoli averages 0.68 goals and 1.7 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key attacking threat.
  • Vicenza Virtus averages more shots (11.2) than Cremonese (10.2), but Cremonese has better shot accuracy and defensive discipline.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cremonese to win with a 58.1% chance, reflecting their superior defensive record and more efficient attack led by key players like F. Despite Vicenza Virtus's higher volume of shots and tendency for high-scoring games, Cremonese's ability to limit goals conceded and capitalize on chances provides a solid football rationale. The price offers positive value, reinforcing the in Cremonese's tactical discipline and recent form. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a well-supported choice.

Defensive SolidityCremonese concedes 0.8 goals/game vs. Vicenza's 2.0
Strong positive
Key Player ImpactBonazzoli averages 0.68 goals/90 with 1.7 SOT
Strong positive
Recent FormCremonese earned 7 points recently vs. Vicenza's 4
Positive
Shot Volume vs. AccuracyVicenza shoots more but less accurate than Cremonese
Positive
Value Edge55.8% model chance vs 40.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cremonese's defensive discipline and efficient attacking players like Bonazzoli provide a tactical and statistical edge over Vicenza Virtus, who have struggled defensively. Cremonese's recent form and ability to limit goals conceded make them the favored side to secure victory in this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Cremonese's tactical and player strengths

“Cremonese's structured defense and clinical finishing, spearheaded by Bonazzoli, position them well to exploit Vicenza's defensive frailties and secure a valuable away win.”

Key Data Signals

Cremonese to Win evidence

Cremonese has a 58.1% to win, with strong value at of 2.45.

Vicenza Virtus concedes 2 goals per game, while Cremonese concedes only 0.8, indicating defensive strength for Cremonese.

Vicenza Virtus has a high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%), but Cremonese's rate is just 20%, suggesting a tighter game if Cremonese controls tempo.

Bonazzoli averages 0.68 goals and 1.7 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Cremonese to Win notes

  • In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, suggesting relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Vicenza's high Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with this trend, indicating their recent matches have been more open.
  • This match may see a tempered tempo with Cremonese aiming to contain scoring chances, aligning with the trend of modest goal totals in their meetings.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vicenza Virtus1.2
Avg goals scored
Cremonese1
Vicenza Virtus2
Avg goals conceded
Cremonese0.8
Vicenza Virtus60%
BTTS rate
Cremonese20%
Vicenza Virtus80%
Over 2.5 goals
Cremonese20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 57% · edge -0.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Vicenza Virtus has an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate, indicating open games with goals on both sides. Cremonese contrasts with a 20% Over 2.5 and BTTS rate, suggesting a more cautious approach. This clash could see a tactical battle where Cremonese aims to keep the scoreline tight, limiting goal opportunities despite Vicenza's attacking intent.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Cremonese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 55.8% for Cremonese to Win sits against roughly 40.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cremonese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Vicenza Virtus.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vicenza Virtus

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
01 Nov 2026A Palermo1-3
27 Oct 2026H Modena1-2
23 Oct 2026A Empoli2-0
17 Oct 2026A Benevento2-2
10 Oct 2026H Pisa0-3

Cremonese

WWLLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
31 Oct 2026H Benevento2-0
27 Oct 2026A Mantova2-0
24 Oct 2026H Juve Stabia0-1
17 Oct 2026A Pisa1-3
10 Oct 2026A Arezzo0-0
Market aligned with main pickCremonese to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Cremonese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Cremonese has collected 7 points recently compared to Vicenza Virtus's 4, showing better momentum. Cremonese's defense has been more consistent, conceding fewer goals, which aligns with their tactical focus on control and counterattack. This form advantage underpins in Cremonese securing a win in this matchup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Vicenza Virtus Over 2.5
20%Cremonese Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, suggesting relatively low-scoring encounters. Vicenza's high Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with this trend, indicating their recent matches have been more open. This match may see a tempered tempo with Cremonese aiming to contain scoring chances, aligning with the trend of modest goal totals in their meetings.

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