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VfB Stuttgart crestVfB Stuttgart
v
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga | Sat 09 May, 14:30

VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 03:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

VfB Stuttgart face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga on Sat 09 May, 14:30. Both teams demonstrate elite reliability in front of goal, with long scoring streaks across league and cup competitions. Leverkusen's strong home record (5 wins in 8) positions them as clear favorites against a dangerous but inconsistent Stuttgart.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.36, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 74%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • Stuttgart’s away games rarely stay quiet: over 2.5 goals have landed in each of their last nine away Bundesliga matches, reflecting an approach that.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Bayer Leverkusen are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.8 goals per match, with VfB Stuttgart at 2.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Over that scoring level sits against roughly 74% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Stuttgart’s away games rarely stay quiet: over 2.5 goals have landed in each of their last nine away Bundesliga matches, reflecting an approach that.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 74% implied
Neutral
The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for VfB Stuttgart.Visible data support
Positive
Bayer Leverkusen are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
Stuttgart’s away games rarely stay quiet: over 2.5 goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because stuttgart’s away games rarely stay quiet: over 2.5 goals have landed in each of their last nine away Bundesliga matches, reflecting an approach that produces chances and accepts risk. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Stuttgart’s away games rarely stay quiet: over 2.5 goals have landed in each of their last nine away.

The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Bayer Leverkusen are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.8 goals per match, with VfB Stuttgart at 2.

BTTS rates of 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

VfB Stuttgart2
Avg goals scored
Bayer Leverkusen2.8
VfB Stuttgart2
Avg goals conceded
Bayer Leverkusen1.4
VfB Stuttgart60%
BTTS rate
Bayer Leverkusen80%
VfB Stuttgart60%
Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 74% · edge -2.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 74% · edge -2.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
VfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

VfB Stuttgart7
Avg corners for
Bayer Leverkusen8
VfB Stuttgart11.2
Avg total corners
Bayer Leverkusen11.2
VfB Stuttgart1
Avg yellow cards
Bayer Leverkusen1.2
VfB Stuttgart16.2
Avg shots
Bayer Leverkusen20.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 51% · edge +17.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

VfB Stuttgart

DDLWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
02 May 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim3-3
26 Apr 2026H Werder Bremen1-1
19 Apr 2026A Bayern München2-4
12 Apr 2026H Hamburger SV4-0
04 Apr 2026H Borussia Dortmund0-2

Bayer Leverkusen

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
02 May 2026H RB Leipzig4-1
25 Apr 2026A 1. FC Köln2-1
18 Apr 2026H FC Augsburg1-2
11 Apr 2026A Borussia Dortmund1-0
04 Apr 2026H VfL Wolfsburg6-3
Best odds for this sectionBayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 35% · edge +35.3 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
VfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
VfB Stuttgart to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1VfB Stuttgart wins
5Draws
4Bayer Leverkusen wins
10 Jan 2026Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart1-4
16 Mar 2025VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen3-4
01 Nov 2024Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart0-0
17 Aug 2024Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart2-2
27 Apr 2024Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart2-2
06 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart3-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 74% · edge -2.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
VfB Stuttgart to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart34
Played
Bayer Leverkusen34
VfB Stuttgart2.1
Avg goals for
Bayer Leverkusen2
VfB Stuttgart1.4
Avg goals against
Bayer Leverkusen1.4
VfB Stuttgart11
Clean sheets
Bayer Leverkusen8
Best odds for this sectionBayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 35% · edge +35.3 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
VfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
VfB Stuttgart to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season data supports Bayer Leverkusen to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4VfB Stuttgart6234188822
6Bayer Leverkusen5934178921
VfB Stuttgart sit in position 4, while Bayer Leverkusen sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%VfB Stuttgart Over 2.5
80%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: VfB Stuttgart sit at 60% and Bayer Leverkusen sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen prediction

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