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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
v
Corinthians crestCorinthians

Serie A | Sat 24 Oct, 22:30

Vasco DA Gama v Corinthians Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians meet in a crucial Serie A clash where both teams are fighting to climb out of the relegation zone. Vasco DA Gama holds a slight edge in recent form, having collected 10 points compared to Corinthians' single point in their last five matches. Vasco's defensive solidity, conceding just 0.6 goals per game recently, contrasts sharply with Corinthians' leaky defense allowing 2.4 goals per match. This fixture promises tactical intensity as Vasco aims to capitalize on their momentum and home advantage to secure vital points.

BT4Y best bet

Vasco DA Gama to Win

  • Vasco DA Gama has earned 10 points in last 5 matches, Corinthians only 1 point
  • Vasco DA Gama concedes just 0.6 goals per game recently, Corinthians concede 2.4
  • Vasco DA Gama averages 19.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game, showing attacking intent
  • Corinthians have a 100% BTTS rate but defensive fragility may be exploited by Vasco DA Gama
  • Vasco DA Gama ranks 15th with 35 points, narrowly ahead of 16th placed Corinthians with 33 points

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Vasco DA Gama to win, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record compared to Corinthians. Vasco's ability to limit goals conceded to 0.6 per game while maintaining strong attacking pressure with 19.2 shots per match underpins this . Corinthians' defensive vulnerabilities and poor recent results further tilt the balance. The price at 1.7 offers positive value given the model's implied chance of 58.8%. This pick is supported by solid data without price warnings or data limitations.

Recent formVasco DA Gama 10 points vs Corinthians 1 point in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Defensive recordVasco DA Gama concedes 0.6 goals per game, Corinthians 2.4
Strong positive
Attacking pressureVasco DA Gama averages 19.2 shots per game
Positive
Price value73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vasco DA Gama's recent form and defensive resilience make them the clear favorite in this relegation battle. Their ability to create numerous chances while limiting opponents' scoring opportunities provides a tactical and statistical edge over Corinthians, who have struggled to find consistency and defensive solidity this season.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Vasco DA Gama's blend of solid defense and sustained attacking pressure positions them well to secure a vital win against a struggling Corinthians side. Their recent momentum and home advantage are key factors in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Vasco DA Gama to Win evidence

Vasco DA Gama has earned 10 points in last 5 matches, Corinthians only 1 point

Vasco DA Gama concedes just 0.6 goals per game recently, Corinthians concede 2.4

Vasco DA Gama averages 19.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game, showing attacking intent

Corinthians have a 100% BTTS rate but defensive fragility may be exploited by Vasco DA Gama

What To Watch In The Data

Vasco DA Gama to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Vasco DA Gama's recent 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals contrasts with Corinthians' 80%, suggesting both teams can contribute to a higher tempo game with multiple scoring chances, though defensive form may temper this potential.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama1.8
Avg goals scored
Corinthians1
Vasco DA Gama0.6
Avg goals conceded
Corinthians2.4
Vasco DA Gama40%
BTTS rate
Corinthians100%
Vasco DA Gama60%
Over 2.5 goals
Corinthians80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Despite Corinthians' 100% BTTS rate recently, Vasco DA Gama's strong defensive record with only 0.6 goals conceded per game suggests a controlled match with limited scoring from the visitors. The data points to a likely scenario where Corinthians may struggle to score, supporting a BTTS No or low-scoring context.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The 73.8% for Vasco DA Gama to Win sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Corinthians.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Sao Paulo0-1
10 Oct 2026H Remo0-0
08 Oct 2026A Botafogo2-1
20 Sep 2026H Coritiba5-0
12 Sep 2026A Gremio2-1

Corinthians

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
20 Oct 2026H Vitoria1-1
11 Oct 2026A Palmeiras1-4
07 Oct 2026A Internacional1-2
20 Sep 2026H Fluminense1-3
13 Sep 2026A Flamengo1-2
Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Vasco DA Gama's recent form is markedly better, securing 10 points in the last five matches compared to Corinthians' single point. This momentum reflects improved tactical execution and , which is critical in this relegation fight. Corinthians' poor form and defensive frailties undermine their chances of an upset.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
80%Corinthians Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Vasco DA Gama's recent 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals contrasts with Corinthians' 80%, suggesting both teams can contribute to a higher tempo game with multiple scoring chances, though defensive form may temper this potential.

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