Football Stats Hub

Valerenga crestValerenga
v
Tromso crestTromso

Eliteserien | Sun 01 Nov, 18:15

Valerenga v Tromso Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 18:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Valerenga hosts Tromso in this Eliteserien clash with both sides eager to secure vital points late in the season. Valerenga, sitting 10th with 29 points, aim to leverage home advantage against 5th-placed Tromso, who have 40 points. Recent form shows Valerenga with a slight edge in points gained, while Tromso's attacking threat is more potent but their defense leakier. Tactical discipline and exploiting Tromso's defensive vulnerabilities will be key for Valerenga to claim victory in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Valerenga to Win

  • Valerenga holds a 52.9% model win probability, offering positive value at 2.38 .
  • Valerenga averages 18.2 shots per game with 5.6 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Tromso concedes 2.4 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailty to exploit.
  • Valerenga's recent form includes 7 points gained versus Tromso's 5 in last matches.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.2, supporting a competitive match environment.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Valerenga to win with a 52.9% chance, reflecting their home form and ability to generate more shots and shots on target than Tromso. Despite Tromso's higher goal-scoring rate, their defensive record is weaker, conceding 2.4 goals per game compared to Valerenga's 1.2. This defensive gap combined with Valerenga's recent points accumulation and home advantage underpins the positive value at current . No data limitations affect in this pick.

Home AdvantageValerenga's stronger home form and higher shot volume
Positive
Defensive RecordsTromso concedes twice as many goals as Valerenga
Strong positive
Recent FormValerenga earned more points recently than Tromso
Positive
Price Value52.9% model chance vs 42% implied (+10.9 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Valerenga's home offensive pressure and Tromso's defensive vulnerabilities create a tactical edge favoring Valerenga to win. The data shows Valerenga's recent form and shot control align with a likely home victory, making this pick a solid choice for the fixture.

Main risk

Vålerenga are highly explosive but defensively vulnerable, with their last six games seeing twenty-two goals fly in.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Valerenga's ability to generate sustained attacking pressure combined with Tromso's porous defense makes a home win the most plausible outcome in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Valerenga to Win evidence

Valerenga holds a 52.9% model win probability, offering positive value at 2.38 .

Valerenga averages 18.2 shots per game with 5.6 on target, indicating offensive pressure.

Tromso concedes 2.4 goals per game, suggesting defensive frailty to exploit.

Valerenga's recent form includes 7 points gained versus Tromso's 5 in last matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Valerenga to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals scored between Valerenga and Tromso is 2.2, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Tromso's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests matches involving them tend to be higher scoring, but Valerenga's more conservative 40% rate points to a balanced tempo with defensive caution at home.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Valerenga1.2
Avg goals scored
Tromso1.8
Valerenga1.2
Avg goals conceded
Tromso2.4
Valerenga60%
BTTS rate
Tromso100%
Valerenga40%
Over 2.5 goals
Tromso60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams show contrasting goal profiles: Tromso scores more but concedes heavily, while Valerenga is more balanced. With a 2.2 average goals in their last 10 meetings and Valerenga's 40% over 2.5 goals rate versus Tromso's 60%, the match could see moderate scoring but with defensive lapses from Tromso likely to open chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Valerenga v Tromso predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickValerenga to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 42% · edge +10.9 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 52.9% for Valerenga to Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+10.9 pts). Valerenga have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Tromso. The issue is that Vålerenga’s games have also been generous to opponents, with 22 goals across their last six matches, 13 of them conceded.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Valerenga

WWLDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
24 Oct 2026A Bodo/Glimt1-0
18 Oct 2026H Brann3-1
12 Oct 2026A KFUM Oslo1-2
20 Sep 2026H Fredrikstad1-1
12 Sep 2026A Lillestrom0-2

Tromso

LDDWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
25 Oct 2026A Viking1-3
18 Oct 2026H KFUM Oslo1-1
11 Oct 2026A Fredrikstad1-1
20 Sep 2026H Ham-Kam3-2
12 Sep 2026A Rosenborg3-5
Market aligned with main pickValerenga to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 42% · edge +10.9 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 80%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Valerenga has accumulated 7 points recently, showing a slight momentum advantage over Tromso's 5 points. Their ability to secure points at home and maintain a tighter defense contrasts with Tromso's more inconsistent form and defensive lapses, supporting in a Valerenga victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Valerenga Over 2.5
60%Tromso Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals scored between Valerenga and Tromso is 2.2, indicating a moderately open game. Tromso's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests matches involving them tend to be higher scoring, but Valerenga's more conservative 40% rate points to a balanced tempo with defensive caution at home.

Loading deeper match data…