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Valencia crestValencia
v
Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

La Liga | Thu 14 May, 18:00

Valencia v Rayo Vallecano Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 09:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Valencia face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga on Thu 14 May, 18:00. Both sides have also seen this outcome in four of their last six league matches, suggesting a tight tactical battle with limited risk-taking.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 4/6, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Valencia and Rayo's last six meetings produced just eight goals total, making the Under 2.5 market extremely short-priced.
  • Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Valencia at 0.8.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Valencia and 40% for Rayo Vallecano show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Valencia at 0.8. Valencia and Rayo's last six meetings produced just eight goals total, making the Under 2.5 market extremely short-priced.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 40% for Valencia and 40% for Rayo.Visible data support
Positive
Valencia and Rayo's last six meetings produced just eight.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because valencia and Rayo's last six meetings produced just eight goals total, making the Under 2.5 market extremely short-priced. Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Valencia at 0.8. At home, however, they remain dangerous.

Main risk

At home, however, they remain dangerous.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Valencia and Rayo's last six meetings produced just eight goals total, making the Under 2.5 market extremely short-priced.

Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Valencia at 0.8.

BTTS rates of 40% for Valencia and 40% for Rayo Vallecano show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Valencia4.6
Avg corners for
Rayo Vallecano5.8
Valencia11.8
Avg total corners
Rayo Vallecano10.6
Valencia1.8
Avg yellow cards
Rayo Vallecano3.6
Valencia12.6
Avg shots
Rayo Vallecano17.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 42% · edge +31.1 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Valencia0.8
Avg goals scored
Rayo Vallecano1.4
Valencia1
Avg goals conceded
Rayo Vallecano1.4
Valencia40%
BTTS rate
Rayo Vallecano40%
Valencia20%
Over 2.5 goals
Rayo Vallecano40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 42% · edge +31.1 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Rayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Valencia to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Valencia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Valencia

WLWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
10 May 2026A Athletic Club1-0
02 May 2026H Atletico Madrid0-2
25 Apr 2026H Girona2-1
21 Apr 2026A Mallorca1-1
11 Apr 2026A Elche0-1

Rayo Vallecano

DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
11 May 2026H Girona1-1
03 May 2026A Getafe2-0
26 Apr 2026H Real Sociedad3-3
23 Apr 2026H Espanyol1-0
12 Apr 2026A Mallorca0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 58% · edge +17.5 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
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Rayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Valencia to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Valencia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Valencia wins
6Draws
3Rayo Vallecano wins
01 Dec 2025Rayo Vallecano v Valencia1-1
19 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano v Valencia1-1
07 Dec 2024Valencia v Rayo Vallecano0-1
12 May 2024Valencia v Rayo Vallecano0-0
19 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano v Valencia0-1
03 Apr 2023Valencia v Rayo Vallecano1-1
Best odds for this sectionRayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 28% · edge +19.9 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Valencia to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The head-to-head sample gives context for Rayo Vallecano to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

La Liga

Valencia38
Played
Rayo Vallecano38
Valencia1.2
Avg goals for
Rayo Vallecano1.1
Valencia1.4
Avg goals against
Rayo Vallecano1.2
Valencia9
Clean sheets
Rayo Vallecano12
Best odds for this sectionRayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 28% · edge +19.9 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Valencia to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Valencia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Season data supports Rayo Vallecano to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Rayo Vallecano5038121412-3
9Valencia4938131015-9
Valencia sit in position 9, while Rayo Vallecano sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Under 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Valencia Over 2.5
40%Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Valencia sit at 20% and Rayo Vallecano sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Valencia v Rayo Vallecano prediction

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Next step

Betting context

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