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Valenciav
Rayo VallecanoLa Liga | Thu 14 May, 18:00
Valencia v Rayo Vallecano Stats
BT4Y best bet
Under 2.5 Goals
- At 1.91, Under 2.5 Goals is priced at roughly 52% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 66%, so the current line is showing a +13.6-point value edge.
- Valencia are at 20% for Over 2.5 in their last-five sample, Rayo Vallecano are at 40%, and the H2H goal average is 1.7.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Valencia have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Rayo Vallecano have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 1.91, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 30% · edge +17.4 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
20%Valencia Over 2.5
40%Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Valencia
WLWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 recordLast 105W 1D 4L
10 May 2026A Athletic Club1-0
02 May 2026H Atletico Madrid0-2
25 Apr 2026H Girona2-1
21 Apr 2026A Mallorca1-1
11 Apr 2026A Elche0-1
Rayo Vallecano
DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 recordLast 104W 4D 2L
11 May 2026H Girona1-1
03 May 2026A Getafe2-0
26 Apr 2026H Real Sociedad3-3
23 Apr 2026H Espanyol1-0
12 Apr 2026A Mallorca0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 30% · edge +17.4 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Valencia0.8
Avg goals scoredRayo Vallecano1.4
Valencia1
Avg goals concededRayo Vallecano1.4
Valencia40%
BTTS rateRayo Vallecano40%
Valencia20%
Over 2.5 goalsRayo Vallecano40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.6 pts
1.91
Bet HERE @ 1.91Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
1Valencia wins
6Draws
3Rayo Vallecano wins
01 Dec 2025Rayo Vallecano v Valencia1-1
19 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano v Valencia1-1
07 Dec 2024Valencia v Rayo Vallecano0-1
12 May 2024Valencia v Rayo Vallecano0-0
19 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano v Valencia0-1
03 Apr 2023Valencia v Rayo Vallecano1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 30% · edge +17.4 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Valencia4.6
Avg corners forRayo Vallecano5.8
Valencia11.8
Avg total cornersRayo Vallecano10.6
Valencia1.8
Avg yellow cardsRayo Vallecano3.6
Valencia12.6
Avg shotsRayo Vallecano17.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +12.6 pts
1.8
Bet HERE @ 1.8Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
L. RamazaniValencia · Attacker
Goal threat71/100
Shots /902.39
SOT /901.39
Jorge de FrutosRayo Vallecano · Attacker
Goal threat61/100
Shots /901.82
SOT /901.01
R. NtekaRayo Vallecano · Midfielder
Goal threat57/100
Shots /902.34
SOT /901.17
Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano · Attacker
Goal threat54/100
Shots /902.04
SOT /901.28
Ó. TrejoRayo Vallecano · Midfielder
Goal threat18/100
Shots /901.23
SOT /901.23
U. SadiqValencia · Attacker
Goal threat53/100
Shots /902.13
SOT /900.96
N. MendyRayo Vallecano · Defender
Goal threat22/100
Shots /900.55
SOT /900.17
Season team stats
La Liga
Valencia35
PlayedRayo Vallecano35
Valencia1.1
Avg goals forRayo Vallecano1
Valencia1.4
Avg goals againstRayo Vallecano1.2
Valencia9
Clean sheetsRayo Vallecano11
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 30% · edge +17.4 pts
3.3
Bet HERE @ 3.3Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 43 | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | -6 |
| 12 | Valencia | 42 | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | -12 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
