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Valencia crestValencia
v
Girona crestGirona

La Liga | Sat 25 Apr, 17:30

Valencia v Girona Stats

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 7.5, Under 2.5 Goals is priced at roughly 13% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 64%, so the current line is showing a +51-point value edge.
  • Valencia are at 20% for Over 2.5 in their last-five sample, Girona are at 40%, and the H2H goal average is 2.3.
  • The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Valencia have taken 1 win from their last 5 matches, averaging 1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
  • The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Girona have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
  • If the bookmaker is still close to 7.5, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 31% · edge +29.2 pts
3.25
Bet HERE @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Away WinBetfred guide price · model 58%
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5
Away Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
2.3
Bet HERE @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
6
Bet HERE @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Bet HERE @ 3.4
Home Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.6
Bet HERE @ 1.6
Home WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.1
Bet HERE @ 2.1
Key match trends

A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.

20%Valencia Over 2.5
40%Girona Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Recent form

Results and scoring shape from recent games.

Valencia

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
21 Apr 2026A Mallorca1-1
11 Apr 2026A Elche0-1
05 Apr 2026H Celta Vigo2-3
21 Mar 2026A Sevilla2-0
14 Mar 2026A Oviedo0-1

Girona

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
21 Apr 2026H Real Betis2-3
10 Apr 2026A Real Madrid1-1
06 Apr 2026H Villarreal1-0
21 Mar 2026A Osasuna0-1
14 Mar 2026H Athletic Club3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 29% · edge +29 pts
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Away Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
2.3
Bet HERE @ 2.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.44
Bet HERE @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Bet HERE @ 3.4
Home Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.6
Bet HERE @ 1.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.22
Bet HERE @ 1.22
Home WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.1
Bet HERE @ 2.1
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Goal-market data and related prices.

Valencia1
Avg goals scored
Girona1.4
Valencia1.2
Avg goals conceded
Girona1
Valencia40%
BTTS rate
Girona40%
Valencia20%
Over 2.5 goals
Girona40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 13% · edge +51 pts
7.5
Bet HERE @ 7.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
3.25
Bet HERE @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
6
Bet HERE @ 6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.1
Bet HERE @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
11
Bet HERE @ 11
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.33
Bet HERE @ 1.33
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and related markets.

4Valencia wins
1Draws
5Girona wins
04 Oct 2025Girona v Valencia2-1
15 Mar 2025Girona v Valencia1-1
21 Sep 2024Valencia v Girona2-0
19 May 2024Valencia v Girona1-3
02 Dec 2023Girona v Valencia2-1
05 Feb 2023Girona v Valencia1-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 31% · edge +29.2 pts
3.25
Bet HERE @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Away WinBetfred guide price · model 58%
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
6
Bet HERE @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Bet HERE @ 3.4
Home WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.1
Bet HERE @ 2.1
Corners, cards and shots

Detailed stat markets where available.

Valencia5.8
Avg corners for
Girona3
Valencia9.2
Avg total corners
Girona9
Valencia1.4
Avg yellow cards
Girona1
Valencia13.4
Avg shots
Girona9.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 58% · edge -2 pts
1.73
Bet HERE @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.83
Bet HERE @ 1.83
Player stats

Player props and player-level signals.

Best player angleC. Stuani Anytime GoalscorerC. Stuani · 4 goals · 2.54 SOT/90
85/100
Bet HERE
Load more player angles
C. Stuani 1+ Shot On TargetC. Stuani · 2.54 shots on target/90
84/100
Bet HERE
D. van de Beek 2+ ShotsD. van de Beek · 4.39 shots/90
82/100
Bet HERE
A. Ounahi To Assist / Key Pass AngleA. Ounahi · 2 assists · 1.68 key passes/90
69/100
Bet HERE
A. Ounahi To Be FouledA. Ounahi · 3.19 fouls won/90
80/100
Bet HERE
C. Stuani Card RiskC. Stuani · 4 yellows · 2.54 fouls/90
80/100
Bet HERE
C. Stuani
C. StuaniGirona · Attacker
Goal threat91/100
Shots /903.1
SOT /902.54
L. Ramazani
L. RamazaniValencia · Attacker
Goal threat71/100
Shots /902.39
SOT /901.39
Hugo Duro
Hugo DuroValencia · Attacker
Goal threat53/100
Shots /901.42
SOT /900.66
D. van de Beek
D. van de BeekGirona · Midfielder
Goal threat41/100
Shots /904.39
SOT /902.2
J. Arango
J. ArangoGirona · Attacker
Goal threat1/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
U. Sadiq
U. SadiqValencia · Attacker
Goal threat53/100
Shots /902.13
SOT /900.96
Season team stats

La Liga

Valencia36
Played
Girona36
Valencia1.1
Avg goals for
Girona1.1
Valencia1.4
Avg goals against
Girona1.5
Valencia9
Clean sheets
Girona6
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 29% · edge +29 pts
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Away Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
2.3
Bet HERE @ 2.3
Home Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.6
Bet HERE @ 1.6
Home WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.1
Bet HERE @ 2.1
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Valencia4336111015-12
15Girona403691314-15

Next step

Betting context

Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.