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Uzbekistan crestUzbekistan
v
Colombia crestColombia

World Cup | Thu 18 Jun, 03:00

Uzbekistan v Colombia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 13:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Uzbekistan face Colombia in World Cup on Thu 18 Jun, 03:00. World Cup Group K Opening Test in Mexico City. Uzbekistan have kept 12 clean sheets in their last 20 matches, conceding only 13 goals across that run.

BT4Y match pick

Requires Colombia to win the match within regular time while the total combined score stays at three goals or fewer

  • At 13/10, Uzbekistan Win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
  • Colombia hold a clear attacking advantage with 38 goals in their last 20 outings, yet Uzbekistan's stubborn defence has conceded only 13 goals in.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 43% for Uzbekistan Win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Colombia hold a clear attacking advantage with that scoring level in their last 20 outings, yet Uzbekistan's stubborn defence has conceded only that scoring level in.

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Neutral
Colombia hold a clear attacking advantage with 38 goals.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -0.5 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Uzbekistan Win is the preferred angle because colombia hold a clear attacking advantage with that scoring level in their last 20 outings, yet Uzbekistan's stubborn defence has conceded only that scoring level in that same period. That combination of firepower and stubbornness makes them awkward: they can open games up, but they are not simply a chaos team.

Main risk

That combination of firepower and stubbornness makes them awkward: they can open games up, but they are not simply a chaos team.

Key Data Signals

Uzbekistan Win evidence

Colombia hold a clear attacking advantage with 38 goals in their last 20 outings, yet Uzbekistan's stubborn defence.

What To Watch In The Data

Uzbekistan Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickUzbekistan to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 11% · edge +31.9 pts
    9
    Check odds @ 9
    Load more odds for this section
    Uzbekistan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Uzbekistan to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Uzbekistan-
    Avg goals scored
    Colombia-
    Uzbekistan-
    Avg goals conceded
    Colombia-
    Uzbekistan-
    BTTS rate
    Colombia-
    Uzbekistan-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Colombia-
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 46% · edge +4.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; this needs scoring involvement from both teams, not just pressure from one side.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Uzbekistan

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Uzbekistan yet.

    Colombia

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Colombia yet.

    Market aligned with main pickUzbekistan to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 11% · edge +31.9 pts
    9
    Check odds @ 9
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Uzbekistan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Uzbekistan wins
    0Draws
    0Colombia wins
    Market aligned with main pickUzbekistan to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 11% · edge +31.9 pts
    9
    Check odds @ 9
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Uzbekistan to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Uzbekistan2
    Played
    Colombia2
    Uzbekistan0.5
    Avg goals for
    Colombia2
    Uzbekistan4
    Avg goals against
    Colombia0.5
    Uzbekistan0
    Clean sheets
    Colombia1
    Market aligned with main pickUzbekistan to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 11% · edge +31.9 pts
    9
    Check odds @ 9
    Load more odds for this section
    Uzbekistan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    Season data supports Uzbekistan to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Colombia622003
    4Uzbekistan02002-7
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Uzbekistan Over 2.5
    -Colombia Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    Colombia hold a clear attacking advantage with 38 goals in their last 20 outings, yet Uzbekistan's stubborn defence has conceded only 13 goals in that same period.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Uzbekistan v Colombia prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre