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Utrecht crestUtrecht
v
PEC Zwolle crestPEC Zwolle

Eredivisie | Sat 24 Oct, 15:30

Utrecht v PEC Zwolle Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Utrecht hosts PEC Zwolle in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Utrecht's recent matches have consistently produced high goal tallies, reflecting their aggressive forward play and defensive openness. PEC Zwolle, struggling near the bottom of the table, also concedes frequently and has shown flashes of offensive threat, suggesting an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. Both teams' tactical setups and recent form hint at a fixture likely to feature several goals, making an Over 3.5 Goals bet a compelling consideration for this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Utrecht has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • PEC Zwolle concedes an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals per game.
  • Utrecht averages 15.4 shots and 5 shots on target per match, showing strong attacking volume.
  • PEC Zwolle's Gilles van der Wal averages 4.41 shots per 90 minutes, highlighting offensive activity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, supported by Utrecht's perfect recent Over 2.5 Goals record and PEC Zwolle's leaky defense conceding 2.8 goals per game. Both teams generate high shot volumes, with Utrecht averaging over 15 shots and PEC Zwolle's key players contributing significant offensive pressure. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals further reinforces the likelihood of a high-scoring game. This combination of attacking potency and defensive vulnerability underpins the positive at of 2.2, making Over 3.5 Goals a strong betting angle.

Utrecht Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
PEC Zwolle Goals Against2.8 per game
Strong positive
Shots per Game (Utrecht)15.4 average
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.4 goals per match
Positive
Model Confidence72%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter as Utrecht's attacking firepower meets PEC Zwolle's defensive struggles. Utrecht's consistent goal-scoring form combined with PEC Zwolle's vulnerability at the back suggests a match ripe for multiple goals. The data supports a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a sensible selection for bettors seeking excitement and value.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match goal-scoring potential

“Utrecht's offensive aggression paired with PEC Zwolle's defensive lapses creates a fertile ground for goals. The statistical trends and player shot volumes indicate that this fixture is well-positioned for a high-scoring outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Utrecht has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

PEC Zwolle concedes an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals per game.

Utrecht averages 15.4 shots and 5 shots on target per match, showing strong attacking volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to multiple goals.
  • The Over 2.5 Goals rate for Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in recent matches further supports the expectation of an attacking game with several scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Utrecht2
Avg goals scored
PEC Zwolle1.2
Utrecht2.2
Avg goals conceded
PEC Zwolle2.8
Utrecht80%
BTTS rate
PEC Zwolle40%
Utrecht100%
Over 2.5 goals
PEC Zwolle80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams exhibit attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities that favor multiple goals. Utrecht's 80% BTTS rate and PEC Zwolle's 40% suggest at least one side consistently scores, while the high goals conceded by both sides support the likelihood of an open, goal-rich match. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals further confirms this trend.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionUtrecht to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Utrecht Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
PEC Zwolle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
PEC Zwolle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+12.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Utrecht and 80% for PEC Zwolle, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Eredivisie fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Utrecht

WWLWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Twente2-1
11 Oct 2026H Willem II3-1
20 Sep 2026A Feyenoord0-5
13 Sep 2026A Excelsior2-1
08 Sep 2026H GO Ahead Eagles3-3

PEC Zwolle

WLLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 6L
18 Oct 2026H GO Ahead Eagles4-1
11 Oct 2026H Cambuur0-1
18 Sep 2026A Groningen0-3
13 Sep 2026H Feyenoord0-7
04 Sep 2026A Sparta Rotterdam2-2
Best odds for this sectionUtrecht to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Utrecht Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
PEC Zwolle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
PEC Zwolle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 19%
4
Check odds @ 4
Utrecht's recent form shows a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, scoring 2 goals per game while conceding 2.2. PEC Zwolle has a slightly lower Over 2.5 rate at 80%, but concedes 2.8 goals per match, indicating defensive frailty. These trends highlight a pattern of high-scoring games for both teams, reinforcing the likelihood of Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Utrecht Over 2.5
80%PEC Zwolle Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to multiple goals. The Over 2.5 Goals rate for Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in recent matches further supports the expectation of an attacking game with several scoring opportunities.

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