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World Cup | Tue 07 Jul, 01:00

USA v Belgium Stats

Data last updated: Mon 06 Jul 2026, 03:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This World Cup knockout clash between USA and Belgium promises a tense and tactical battle shaped by key absences and contrasting styles. USA enter without their top scorer Folarin Balogun, forcing a reshaped attack led by Christian Pulisic, while Belgium bring a potent offense led by Kevin De Bruyne but carry defensive vulnerabilities exposed in recent matches. Both teams have shown resilience and attacking quality, setting the stage for a high-stakes encounter where scoring chances are expected on both sides, with tactical discipline and transition play likely to be decisive factors.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Belgium scored 22 goals in eight matches in 2026, showcasing strong attacking firepower.
  • USA rely on collective shape and Pulisic's creativity after Balogun's suspension.
  • Belgium conceded 1.83 expected goals in one half against Senegal, revealing defensive gaps.
  • USA scored while down to 10 men recently, indicating resilience under pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Both Teams to Score selection is supported by Belgium's prolific scoring record and USA's demonstrated ability to find the net despite missing their leading striker. Belgium's defensive lapses, highlighted by conceding high expected goals in recent matches, increase the likelihood of USA scoring. The model assigns a 70.8% chance to this outcome, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities of both sides. This pick offers positive value at 1.60 , with bolstered by recent form and tactical setups favoring open play and transition opportunities.

Belgium's attacking output22 goals in 8 matches in 2026
Strong positive
USA's resilience and scoring despite Balogun's absencescored while down to 10 men vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Positive
Belgium's defensive vulnerability1.83 expected goals conceded in one half vs Senegal
Positive
Model chance vs odds70.8% chance vs 62.5% implied chance
Strong positive
Main risk

The main risk is that USA's attacking threat is diminished without Balogun, which could reduce goal-scoring chances and lead to a more cautious game limiting scoring opportunities.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“Belgium's potent offense combined with USA's adaptive attack despite Balogun's absence creates a dynamic where both sides are expected to score. Defensive lapses and transition play will be critical in unlocking goals on either side.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Belgium scored 22 goals in eight matches in 2026, showcasing strong attacking firepower.

USA rely on collective shape and Pulisic's creativity after Balogun's suspension.

Belgium conceded 1.83 expected goals in one half against Senegal, revealing defensive gaps.

USA scored while down to 10 men recently, indicating resilience under pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 5, indicating a high-scoring trend when these teams meet.
  • Both sides have a 50% over 2.5 goals rate recently, with Belgium's matches showing even higher scoring frequency.
  • These trends suggest a fast-paced game with multiple goal opportunities, supporting an expectation of goals from both teams in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

USA5.75
Avg corners for
Belgium4.5
USA8.25
Avg total corners
Belgium8.5
USA1.25
Avg yellow cards
Belgium1
USA13
Avg shots
Belgium23
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +2.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Belgium averages 4.5 corners and 23 shots per game with 6.25 on target, indicating sustained attacking pressure and wide play. USA averages 5.75 corners and 13 shots with 4.25 on target, showing active offensive efforts. Both teams maintain moderate disciplinary records, with USA averaging 1.25 yellow cards and Belgium 1 per game, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match. The volume of shots and corners underlines attacking intent conducive to goals.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

USA2.5
Avg goals scored
Belgium2.25
USA1
Avg goals conceded
Belgium1
USA50%
BTTS rate
Belgium75%
USA50%
Over 2.5 goals
Belgium50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 65% · edge +5.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Belgium's 22 goals in eight matches and USA's ability to score even when down to 10 men highlight a strong offensive presence on both sides. Belgium's defensive issues, including conceding 1.83 expected goals in one half, increase the chance of USA scoring. The combination of attacking potency and defensive vulnerabilities supports a high probability of goals from both teams in this knockout setting.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 65% · edge +5.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
USA to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
USA Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.60, reflecting a 62.5% implied chance, while the model estimates a higher 70.8% probability, indicating positive value. This suggests the market slightly underestimates the likelihood of both sides scoring, supported by Belgium's strong attack and USA's capacity to score despite missing key striker Balogun. The price is attractive without warning flags, making it a sensible selection given the attacking and defensive profiles.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

USA

WLWW
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
02 Jul 2026H Bosnia & Herzegovina2-0
26 Jun 2026A Türkiye2-3
19 Jun 2026H Australia2-0
13 Jun 2026H Paraguay4-1

Belgium

WWDD
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
01 Jul 2026H Senegal3-2
27 Jun 2026A New Zealand5-1
21 Jun 2026H Iran0-0
15 Jun 2026H Egypt1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 69% · edge +7.8 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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USA to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
USA Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Belgium to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Belgium Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Recent form data shows USA with 9 points and 2.5 goals scored per game, while Belgium has 8 points and 2.25 goals scored per game. Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, with Belgium having a higher 75% rate for both teams to score. Defensively, both concede around 1 goal per game, indicating openness. This form profile aligns with an expectation of goals from both sides in this knockout fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0USA wins
0Draws
2Belgium wins
28 Mar 2026USA v Belgium2-5
01 Jul 2014Belgium v USA2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 65% · edge +5.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
USA to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Belgium to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The two recent meetings between USA and Belgium have averaged five goals per game, indicating an open and attacking dynamic when these teams face off. While the sample is limited, this high goal average supports the likelihood of both teams scoring in the upcoming match. The head-to-head history aligns with the attacking profiles and tactical openness expected in this knockout tie.
Season team stats

World Cup

USA4
Played
Belgium4
USA2.5
Avg goals for
Belgium2.3
USA1
Avg goals against
Belgium1
USA2
Clean sheets
Belgium1
Best odds for this sectionUSA to WinBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 38% · edge +10.9 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
USA Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Belgium to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Belgium Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Season-long statistics reveal Belgium's strong offensive output with 22 goals in eight matches, balanced by defensive lapses that allowed high expected goals against. USA's attack is less prolific but resilient, scoring consistently even under adversity. Both teams' season stats reflect attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities that make a Both Teams to Score outcome plausible in this high-pressure match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1USA632014
1Belgium531204
Both USA and Belgium sit top of their groups with similar points, reflecting strong campaigns. While standings provide background, the knockout nature of this match elevates tactical and psychological factors. The pressure to advance and the quality of both sides suggest an open game where both teams seek to score, consistent with the Both Teams to Score market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%USA Over 2.5
50%Belgium Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 5, indicating a high-scoring trend when these teams meet. Both sides have a 50% over 2.5 goals rate recently, with Belgium's matches showing even higher scoring frequency. These trends suggest a fast-paced game with multiple goal opportunities, supporting an expectation of goals from both teams in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

USA v Belgium prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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