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Union St. Gilloise crestUnion St. Gilloise
v
Genk crestGenk

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 08 Nov, 17:30

Union St. Gilloise v Genk Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 14:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gilloise and Genk meet in a Jupiler Pro League clash where both teams show attacking intent and solid recent form. Gilloise sit second in the table with 26 points, demonstrating strong offensive and defensive balance, while Genk, ranked sixth with 15 points, have been less prolific but maintain a competitive edge. Both sides average over 7 corners per game combined, reflecting active wing play and territorial battles. This fixture promises a dynamic contest with sustained pressure and frequent set-piece opportunities, setting the stage for a high corner count.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Gilloise average 7.6 corners per match, Genk 6.2, combining for nearly 14 corners on average.
  • Both teams maintain a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating open play and attacking pressure.
  • Gilloise average 19.8 shots per game with 8.2 on target, Genk 18.6 shots with 5 on target, showing offensive activity.
  • Genk's higher average of 2.4 yellow cards per game suggests aggressive play that can lead to more set-piece opportunities.
  • The model assigns a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support for this market.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 9.5 Corners with a 69% probability, well above the 55.6% implied by current , signaling clear value. Both teams generate high corner counts through sustained attacking pressure and wide play, supported by Union St. Gilloise's 7.6 and Genk's 6.2 average corners per game. The match tempo and aggressive defensive styles, especially Genk's fouling frequency, contribute to frequent set-piece situations. is high at 84%, reflecting consistent corner trends and shot volumes. No data limitations affect this analysis, making the corner market a compelling angle.

Union St. Gilloise avg corners7.6 per match
Strong positive
Genk avg corners6.2 per match
Strong positive
Model corner chance69%
Strong positive
Implied chance from odds69% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+13.4 pts)
Positive
Confidence level84%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with both Union St. Gilloise and Genk pushing wide and creating set-piece chances, driving the corner count above 9.5. Gilloise's strong home form and Genk's aggressive defensive style combine to produce frequent corners, making this a tactically sound and statistically supported bet.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market

“This fixture features two teams that rely heavily on wing play and pressing, naturally generating numerous corners. The statistical edge for over 9.5 corners is clear given their attacking patterns and defensive fouling tendencies.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Gilloise average 7.6 corners per match, Genk 6.2, combining for nearly 14 corners on average.

Both teams maintain a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating open play and attacking pressure.

Gilloise average 19.8 shots per game with 8.2 on target, Genk 18.6 shots with 5 on target, showing offensive activity.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals stand at 2.3, with both teams showing a tendency for open play and attacking transitions.
  • This tempo supports sustained pressure on flanks and frequent corner situations, aligning with the over 2.5 goals trend and the high corner count forecast.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union St. Gilloise3
Avg goals scored
Genk1.2
Union St. Gilloise0.8
Avg goals conceded
Genk1.2
Union St. Gilloise60%
BTTS rate
Genk40%
Union St. Gilloise60%
Over 2.5 goals
Genk60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 62% · edge +5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, but Genk's 40% BTTS rate suggests they may concede less frequently. This points to a controlled scoring environment where goals come from structured attacks rather than open wild play, aligning with set-piece opportunities like corners rather than high-scoring chaos.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Genk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Genk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+13.4 pts). Gilloise lead the corner sample at 7.6 per match, with Genk lower at 6.2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union St. Gilloise

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 2D 0L
31 Oct 2026A SK Beveren2-1
25 Oct 2026H Cercle Brugge5-2
11 Oct 2026H OH Leuven1-1
20 Sep 2026A Antwerp2-0
12 Sep 2026H Lommel United5-0

Genk

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
31 Oct 2026A KV Mechelen0-1
25 Oct 2026H Standard Liege2-1
10 Oct 2026H Kortrijk3-0
20 Sep 2026A Club Brugge KV0-3
13 Sep 2026H Gent1-1
Best odds for this sectionUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Genk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Genk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Recent form shows Union St. Gilloise with 13 points and Genk with 7 in their last matches, both maintaining a 60% over 2.5 goals rate. Their consistent offensive output and defensive pressure have translated into frequent corners, reinforcing the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Union St. Gilloise Over 2.5
60%Genk Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals stand at 2.3, with both teams showing a tendency for open play and attacking transitions. This tempo supports sustained pressure on flanks and frequent corner situations, aligning with the over 2.5 goals trend and the high corner count forecast.

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