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Union St. Gilloise crestUnion St. Gilloise
v
Cercle Brugge crestCercle Brugge

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 25 Oct, 18:15

Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 13:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gilloise visit Cercle Brugge at the Jan Breydelstadion in a Jupiler Pro League clash marked by a stark contrast in form and league standing. Union lead the table with 41 points and a +24 goal difference, showcasing consistent control and clinical finishing, while Cercle struggle near the bottom with 16 points and defensive vulnerabilities. Union's structured 3-4-2-1 formation offers balance and width, aiming to exploit Cercle's defensive lapses and pressing approach. Despite some injury absences, Union's superior technical quality and recent European and domestic wins position them as strong favorites to extend their control in this fixture.

BT4Y match pick

Union St. Gilloise Win

  • Gilloise top the league with 41 points and +24 goal difference.
  • Cercle Brugge have conceded 29 goals and both teams scored in their last nine home matches.
  • Union average 38% shots on target versus Cercle's 31%, indicating greater attacking efficiency.
  • Union complete passes at 81% accuracy, aiding ball retention against Cercle's press.
  • Union have kept 11 clean sheets this season, highlighting defensive solidity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Union St. Gilloise to win based on their dominant league position, superior goal difference, and consistent recent form. Their higher shot accuracy and pass completion rate indicate better attacking efficiency and control, while their defensive record is the best in the league. Cercle Brugge's defensive frailties and lower form make them vulnerable, reinforcing Union's strong winning probability. The data quality is solid, supporting a confident prediction for Union's victory.

League Position and PointsUnion lead with 41 points vs Cercle's 16
Strong positive
Goal Difference+24 for Union vs -5 for Cercle
Strong positive
Shot Accuracy38% on target for Union vs 31% for Cercle
Positive
Pass Completion81% for Union vs 77% for Cercle
Positive
Defensive RecordUnion conceded 11 goals vs Cercle's 29
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gilloise's tactical discipline and clinical finishing make them the clear favorites against a defensively vulnerable Cercle Brugge. Their ability to control possession and convert chances, combined with Cercle's struggles to keep clean sheets at home, suggests Union will secure another league win.

Main risk

Van der Bruggen and Agyekum behind Diop and Gerkens suggests Cercle will want enough security to push bodies forward, but also enough legs to recover when moves break down.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Gilloise's blend of defensive solidity and attacking precision positions them strongly to overcome Cercle Brugge's high-pressing but fragile defense in this key league encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Union St. Gilloise Win evidence

Gilloise top the league with 41 points and +24 goal difference.

Cercle Brugge have conceded 29 goals and both teams scored in their last nine home matches.

Union average 38% shots on target versus Cercle's 31%, indicating greater attacking efficiency.

Union complete passes at 81% accuracy, aiding ball retention against Cercle's press.

What To Watch In The Data

Union St. Gilloise Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, supporting a moderate scoring trend.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a potential for open play and goal-scoring opportunities, especially given Cercle's defensive record.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union St. Gilloise2.8
Avg goals scored
Cercle Brugge0.8
Union St. Gilloise0.6
Avg goals conceded
Cercle Brugge2
Union St. Gilloise40%
BTTS rate
Cercle Brugge60%
Union St. Gilloise60%
Over 2.5 goals
Cercle Brugge60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have scored in Cercle Brugge's last nine home league matches, indicating open games at the Jan Breydelstadion. However, Union's defensive strength and lower BTTS rate of 40% suggest a controlled scoring environment favoring a Union win with limited goals conceded.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 75% · edge -1.2 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The 74% for Union St. Gilloise Win sits against roughly 75.2% implied by the current price (-1.2 pts). Gilloise Win sits against roughly 75% implied by the current price. Gilloise have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 1 for Cercle Brugge. Cercle’s home results show a pattern of matches opening up, and that can feed into transitions.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union St. Gilloise

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 0L
11 Oct 2026H OH Leuven1-1
20 Sep 2026A Antwerp2-0
12 Sep 2026H Lommel United5-0
05 Sep 2026A Charleroi3-2
02 Sep 2026A St. Truiden3-0

Cercle Brugge

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Anderlecht1-2
19 Sep 2026A Charleroi2-3
12 Sep 2026A OH Leuven1-1
06 Sep 2026H Gent0-3
29 Aug 2026H Lommel United0-1
Market aligned with main pickUnion St. Gilloise to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 75% · edge -1.2 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
Gilloise have accumulated 13 points recently, scoring 2.8 goals per game while conceding only 0.6, demonstrating strong form and defensive resilience. Cercle Brugge's form is poor with just 1 point and 0.8 goals scored per game, conceding 2 goals on average, underscoring their struggles and reinforcing Union's winning prospects.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Union St. Gilloise Over 2.5
60%Cercle Brugge Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, supporting a moderate scoring trend. Both teams' recent matches show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a potential for open play and goal-scoring opportunities, especially given Cercle's defensive record.

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