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Union Brescia crestUnion Brescia
v
Cittadella crestCittadella

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 24 Oct, 16:30

Union Brescia v Cittadella Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cittadella arrives at Union Brescia in strong form, leading Serie C - Girone A with 27 points, seven clear of third-placed Union Brescia. Cittadella's defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, the best in the group, while Union Brescia has a more attacking but less secure profile. This match pits Cittadella's disciplined defense and efficient attack against Union Brescia's higher scoring but more open style, setting up a tactical battle where Cittadella's consistency and league position suggest they can secure a valuable away win.

BT4Y best bet

Cittadella to Win

  • Cittadella leads the group with 27 points, seven ahead of Union Brescia in third.
  • Cittadella concedes only 0.4 goals per game, the tightest defense in the league.
  • Union Brescia scores more but also concedes more, indicating a more open style.
  • Cittadella's to win is 57.8%, with strong value at 3.3 .
  • Recent form favors Cittadella with 12 points from last matches versus Union Brescia's 8.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Cittadella's chances to win at 57.8%, reflecting their top league position and superior defensive record. Despite the away venue, Cittadella's ability to limit goals conceded (0.4 per game) contrasts with Union Brescia's more porous defense (1 goal per game). This defensive edge combined with efficient scoring provides a solid foundation for an away win. The of 3.3 offer strong value given the implied chance is only 30.3%, making this a compelling selection without price caution.

Model Win Probability57.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance45.3% model chance vs 30.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthCittadella concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Union Brescia Goals Against1 goal per game
Negative
Recent PointsCittadella 12 vs Union Brescia 8
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cittadella's disciplined defense and league-leading form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this match. Their ability to control games and limit opponents' chances contrasts with Union Brescia's more open approach, providing a solid basis for an away victory. The data supports backing Cittadella to secure all three points in this key Serie C clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cittadella's defensive resilience and consistent point accumulation set them apart in this fixture, making their away win a logical and data-backed choice despite the challenging venue.”

Key Data Signals

Cittadella to Win evidence

Cittadella leads the group with 27 points, seven ahead of Union Brescia in third.

Cittadella concedes only 0.4 goals per game, the tightest defense in the league.

Union Brescia scores more but also concedes more, indicating a more open style.

Cittadella's to win is 57.8%, with strong value at 3.3 .

What To Watch In The Data

Cittadella to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating moderately open contests.
  • Union Brescia's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Cittadella's more defensive matches (40%), suggesting this fixture could see a balanced tempo with Cittadella aiming to keep the game tight and capitalize on counter-attacks.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union Brescia2
Avg goals scored
Cittadella1.6
Union Brescia1
Avg goals conceded
Cittadella0.4
Union Brescia60%
BTTS rate
Cittadella20%
Union Brescia60%
Over 2.5 goals
Cittadella40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Union Brescia averages 2 goals per game with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate, indicating open matches with goals at both ends. In contrast, Cittadella's matches are tighter, with 1.6 goals per game, 40% over 2.5, and only 20% BTTS, reflecting defensive discipline. This contrast suggests a match with moderate scoring, likely favoring Cittadella's defensive approach to limit goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union Brescia

LWDDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
19 Oct 2026A Giana Erminio1-2
09 Oct 2026H PRO Vercelli2-0
04 Oct 2026A Lecco2-2
27 Sep 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi1-1
20 Sep 2026A Alcione4-0

Cittadella

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 0D 1L
19 Oct 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo1-0
10 Oct 2026A Novara2-0
03 Oct 2026H Albinoleffe1-2
26 Sep 2026H Lecco3-0
20 Sep 2026A Ospitaletto1-0
Market aligned with main pickCittadella to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Cittadella Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Recent form data shows Cittadella with 12 points from recent matches, outperforming Union Brescia's 8 points. This momentum reflects Cittadella's consistency and ability to secure results, especially defensively, which is crucial in tight Serie C contests. Union Brescia's form is solid but less dominant, suggesting Cittadella holds the edge going into this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCittadella to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Cittadella Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
The 45.3% for Cittadella to Win sits against roughly 30.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cittadella have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Union Brescia.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Union Brescia Over 2.5
40%Cittadella Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating moderately open contests. Union Brescia's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Cittadella's more defensive matches (40%), suggesting this fixture could see a balanced tempo with Cittadella aiming to keep the game tight and capitalize on counter-attacks.

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