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Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin
v
FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg

Bundesliga | Sat 16 May, 14:30

Union Berlin v FC Augsburg Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 11:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Union Berlin face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga on Sat 16 May, 14:30. Between them, they have conceded 115 league goals. Augsburg arrive unbeaten in their last five matches, winning three of them.

BT4Y best bet

On whether the game ends in a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2) after 90 minutes

  • At 13/2, Union Berlin Win implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • With both defences having conceded over 55 goals this season, clean sheets are unlikely.
  • FC Augsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin.
  • FC Augsburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Union Berlin Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Union Berlin sit 11 in the table, while FC Augsburg sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Union Berlin Win sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. FC Augsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin. With both defences having conceded over that scoring level this season, clean sheets are unlikely.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Positive
FC Augsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 11.Visible data support
Positive
FC Augsburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
With both defences having conceded over 55 goals this.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Union Berlin Win is the preferred angle because with both defences having conceded over that scoring level this season, clean sheets are unlikely. FC Augsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin. However, the history of cagey meetings between these specific teams suggests a 1-1 stalemate is the most plausible outcome as neither side wants to end with a loss.

Main risk

However, the history of cagey meetings between these specific teams suggests a 1-1 stalemate is the most plausible outcome as neither side wants to end with a loss.

Key Data Signals

Union Berlin Win evidence

With both defences having conceded over 55 goals this season, clean sheets are unlikely.

FC Augsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin.

FC Augsburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Union Berlin Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Union Berlin sit 11 in the table, while FC Augsburg sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Union Berlin Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Union Berlin1.6
    Avg goals scored
    FC Augsburg2.2
    Union Berlin2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    FC Augsburg1.2
    Union Berlin100%
    BTTS rate
    FC Augsburg100%
    Union Berlin100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    FC Augsburg80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 100% for Union Berlin and 100% for FC Augsburg, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickUnion Berlin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 38% · edge -11.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Union Berlin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Union Berlin to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Union Berlin6
    Avg corners for
    FC Augsburg4.4
    Union Berlin11.8
    Avg total corners
    FC Augsburg10.8
    Union Berlin1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    FC Augsburg2
    Union Berlin13.8
    Avg shots
    FC Augsburg14.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 46% · edge +14.6 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Union Berlin

    WDLLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    10 May 2026A FSV Mainz 053-1
    02 May 2026H 1. FC Köln2-2
    24 Apr 2026A RB Leipzig1-3
    18 Apr 2026H VfL Wolfsburg1-2
    11 Apr 2026A 1. FC Heidenheim1-3

    FC Augsburg

    WWDWD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    09 May 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach3-1
    02 May 2026A Werder Bremen3-1
    25 Apr 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-1
    18 Apr 2026A Bayer Leverkusen2-1
    10 Apr 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim2-2
    Market aligned with main pickUnion Berlin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 38% · edge -11.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Union Berlin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Union Berlin wins
    3Draws
    4FC Augsburg wins
    15 Jan 2026FC Augsburg v Union Berlin1-1
    17 May 2025FC Augsburg v Union Berlin1-2
    15 Jan 2025Union Berlin v FC Augsburg0-2
    12 Apr 2024FC Augsburg v Union Berlin2-0
    25 Nov 2023Union Berlin v FC Augsburg1-1
    06 May 2023FC Augsburg v Union Berlin1-0
    Market aligned with main pickUnion Berlin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 38% · edge -11.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Union Berlin to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    Union Berlin34
    Played
    FC Augsburg34
    Union Berlin1.3
    Avg goals for
    FC Augsburg1.3
    Union Berlin1.7
    Avg goals against
    FC Augsburg1.8
    Union Berlin7
    Clean sheets
    FC Augsburg5
    Market aligned with main pickUnion Berlin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 38% · edge -11.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Union Berlin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Season data supports Union Berlin to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9FC Augsburg433412715-16
    11Union Berlin393410915-14
    Union Berlin sit in position 11, while FC Augsburg sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the Union Berlin Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Union Berlin Over 2.5
    80%FC Augsburg Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Union Berlin sit at 100% and FC Augsburg sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Union Berlin v FC Augsburg prediction

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