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Lecce crestLecce

Serie A | Sun 18 Oct, 11:30

Udinese v Lecce Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 19:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Udinese hosts Lecce in a Serie A clash where both teams have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game. Udinese's attack is more potent, averaging 1.6 goals per match compared to Lecce's 0.8, but both sides have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, with an 80% Over 2.5 rate each. Recent form suggests an open game with chances for both sides, as Udinese seeks to improve their standing after a slow start, while Lecce aims to capitalize on their slightly better points tally and maintain momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Udinese and Lecce both have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Udinese averages 13.8 shots per game with 4.4 on target, Lecce averages 9.8 shots with 3.4 on target.
  • Head-to-head average goals over last 10 matches is 2.2, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Key players like O. Berisha for Lecce show high shot volumes, indicating attacking intent.
  • Both teams concede 2.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities likely to lead to goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 66% chance against a 50% implied market probability, reflecting a 16% . Both Udinese and Lecce have high Over 2.5 rates (80%), combined with significant shot volumes and defensive frailties, suggesting a match prone to multiple goals. The attacking contributions from Lecce's O. Berisha, alongside Udinese's consistent shooting, underpin the expectation of an open, goal-filled game. No data limitations or price warnings reduce in this selection.

Model Chance65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Rate Udinese80%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Rate Lecce80%
Strong positive
Shots Per Game Udinese13.8
Positive
Shots Per Game Lecce9.8
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open contest given both teams' defensive struggles and attacking tendencies. Udinese's higher shot volume combined with Lecce's key attacking players suggests multiple goal opportunities. The data supports a lively game with Over 2.5 Goals a sensible selection based on form and player influence.

Main risk

Udinese carry the stronger scoring threat, but Lecce must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with defensive weaknesses but clear attacking intent, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical pick. The volume of shots and key attacking players on both teams should create enough chances to surpass the goal threshold.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Udinese and Lecce both have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Udinese averages 13.8 shots per game with 4.4 on target, Lecce averages 9.8 shots with 3.4 on target.

Head-to-head average goals over last 10 matches is 2.2, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Key players like O. Berisha for Lecce show high shot volumes, indicating attacking intent.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2, close to the Over 2.5 threshold, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games.
  • Combined with recent form and season stats, this trend suggests a tempo and attacking openness conducive to surpassing 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Udinese1.6
Avg goals scored
Lecce0.8
Udinese2.4
Avg goals conceded
Lecce2.4
Udinese80%
BTTS rate
Lecce40%
Udinese80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lecce80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have high Over 2.5 rates at 80%, with Udinese scoring 1.6 goals per game and Lecce 0.8, while both concede 2.4 goals on average. Lecce's BTTS rate is lower at 40%, but Udinese's 80% BTTS rate suggests at least one side will score, supporting a goal-rich match environment.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Udinese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Udinese to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 65% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Udinese and 80% for Lecce, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Both Teams to Score is supported by Udinese's poor defence, conceding 13 goals in six matches, and Lecce's ability to create chances, evidenced by.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Udinese

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
12 Oct 2026A Torino1-2
19 Sep 2026H Cagliari0-1
14 Sep 2026A Inter3-5
07 Sep 2026H Lazio1-2
29 Aug 2026A Monza3-2

Lecce

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 4L
11 Oct 2026H Bologna1-2
20 Sep 2026A AC Milan0-3
13 Sep 2026H Monza3-2
07 Sep 2026A Cagliari0-1
31 Aug 2026H AS Roma0-4
Best odds for this sectionUdinese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 47% · edge +12.4 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Udinese to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Lecce Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Recent form shows both teams earning 3 points in their last matches but with contrasting goal outputs: Udinese averages 1.6 goals scored and Lecce 0.8. Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 rate recently, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter based on current momentum and attacking form.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Udinese Over 2.5
80%Lecce Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2, close to the Over 2.5 threshold, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games. Combined with recent form and season stats, this trend suggests a tempo and attacking openness conducive to surpassing 2.5 goals in this fixture.

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