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Udinese crestUdinese
v
AS Roma crestAS Roma

Serie A | Sat 31 Oct, 17:00

Udinese v AS Roma Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 14:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A fixture features Udinese hosting AS Roma, with Roma currently third in the league and Udinese struggling near the relegation zone. Roma's recent form shows stronger attacking output, scoring 2.2 goals per game compared to Udinese's 0.2, but Udinese's home resilience and tactical discipline could keep the match tight. Roma's offensive threat is led by several key attackers, while Udinese's defensive setup aims to frustrate and capitalize on counter-attacks. The game carries importance for Udinese to gain points and for Roma to maintain pressure on the top spots, setting up a competitive encounter with potential for cautious play.

BT4Y best bet

Udinese Draw No Bet

  • Udinese has a low goals-for average (0.2) but solid defensive efforts at home.
  • AS Roma ranks 3rd with a strong attack scoring 2.2 goals per game.
  • Udinese's recent form includes only 1 point, Roma has 9 points in recent matches.
  • Model shows 45% chance for Udinese Draw No Bet with positive value at 3.45 .
  • Player data highlights I. Gueye's high shot volume for Udinese and D. Malen's goal threat for Roma.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Udinese Draw No Bet at 3.45 due to the significant of 16%, reflecting the underdog's defensive solidity and home advantage against a Roma side that, despite strong attack, may face tactical challenges breaking down a resilient defense. Udinese's low scoring is offset by their ability to limit opponents' chances, while Roma's attacking threat is balanced by some defensive vulnerabilities. This pick balances the risk of Roma's offensive power with Udinese's home resilience, making it a compelling choice without price warnings or data limitations.

Model Chance44% model chance vs 29% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance44% model chance vs 29% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge44% model chance vs 29% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence63
Positive
Data QualityGood data for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Udinese Draw No Bet is a smart choice given Udinese's defensive discipline at home and Roma's occasional struggles to convert chances against organized defenses. The pick leverages Udinese's ability to avoid defeat while acknowledging Roma's offensive strengths, offering a balanced tactical and statistical rationale.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and value insight

“Udinese's home defensive structure combined with Roma's inconsistent finishing makes the Draw No Bet a prudent selection, capturing value in a fixture where the underdog can frustrate the visitors.”

Key Data Signals

Udinese Draw No Bet evidence

Udinese has a low goals-for average (0.2) but solid defensive efforts at home.

AS Roma ranks 3rd with a strong attack scoring 2.2 goals per game.

Udinese's recent form includes only 1 point, Roma has 9 points in recent matches.

Model shows 45% chance for Udinese Draw No Bet with positive value at 3.45 .

What To Watch In The Data

Udinese Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.6, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Udinese's 40% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Roma's 60%, suggesting the match could see a balanced tempo with chances for goals but also defensive phases, supporting a competitive and tactical encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Udinese0.2
Avg goals scored
AS Roma2.2
Udinese1.6
Avg goals conceded
AS Roma1.4
Udinese20%
BTTS rate
AS Roma60%
Udinese40%
Over 2.5 goals
AS Roma60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 44% · edge +4.3 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Goal trends indicate a low scoring profile for Udinese with only 0.2 goals per game and a 20% BTTS rate, contrasting with Roma's 2.2 goals per game and 60% BTTS rate. This suggests a match likely to feature limited goals from Udinese and a moderate chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Roma's attacking intent against a disciplined defense.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickUdinese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Udinese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 44% for Udinese Draw No Bet sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price (+15 pts). AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 1 for Udinese.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Udinese

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 6L
28 Oct 2026A Parma0-0
25 Oct 2026H AC Milan0-2
18 Oct 2026H Lecce0-3
12 Oct 2026A Torino1-2
19 Sep 2026H Cagliari0-1

AS Roma

WDWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 0L
27 Oct 2026H Cagliari4-2
24 Oct 2026A Napoli3-3
17 Oct 2026H Genoa2-0
11 Oct 2026A Como0-0
19 Sep 2026H Inter2-2
Market aligned with main pickUdinese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Udinese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
6
Check odds @ 6
Recent form data shows Udinese with only 1 point and a low scoring rate of 0.2 goals per game, highlighting offensive struggles but some defensive organisation. Roma's 9 points and 2.2 goals per game reflect strong momentum and attacking . This contrast suggests Udinese may focus on containment and counter-attacks, while Roma will push to break down the defense.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Udinese Over 2.5
60%AS Roma Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.6, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Udinese's 40% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Roma's 60%, suggesting the match could see a balanced tempo with chances for goals but also defensive phases, supporting a competitive and tactical encounter.

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