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Türkiye crestTürkiye
v
Paraguay crestParaguay

World Cup | Sat 20 Jun, 04:00

Türkiye v Paraguay Stats

Data last updated: Sun 12 Jul 2026, 20:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Türkiye face Paraguay in World Cup on Sat 20 Jun, 04:00. Group D Pressure Turns Levi’s Stadium Into A Survival Test. Türkiye’s recent six-match run reads four wins, one draw and one defeat. Türkiye maintain superior control metrics, averaging 59% possession and 12.73 shots per match compared to Paraguay's 36% possession and 11.29 shots.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • At 2, Türkiye Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Türkiye have a consistent scoring history, finding the net in nine of their last eleven games, but face defensive uncertainties due to Kabak's injury.
  • Türkiye have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the Türkiye Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Türkiye Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Türkiye have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the Türkiye Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Türkiye have a consistent scoring history, finding the net in nine of their last eleven games, but face defensive uncertainties due to Kabak's injury.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Strong positive
Türkiye have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Türkiye have a consistent scoring history, finding the net.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Türkiye Win is the preferred angle because türkiye have a consistent scoring history, finding the net in nine of their last eleven games, but face defensive uncertainties due to Kabak's injury. Türkiye have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the Türkiye Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Paraguay did score against the USA, but the 4-1 scoreline left deeper scars because of the damage to their goal difference.

Main risk

Paraguay did score against the USA, but the 4-1 scoreline left deeper scars because of the damage to their goal difference.

Key Data Signals

Türkiye Win evidence

Türkiye have a consistent scoring history, finding the net in nine of their last eleven games, but face.

Türkiye have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the Türkiye Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Türkiye Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Türkiye8
    Avg corners for
    Paraguay1
    Türkiye13
    Avg total corners
    Paraguay4
    Türkiye1
    Avg yellow cards
    Paraguay5
    Türkiye30
    Avg shots
    Paraguay9
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 50% · edge +18 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    more World Cup analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Türkiye0
    Avg goals scored
    Paraguay1
    Türkiye2
    Avg goals conceded
    Paraguay4
    Türkiye0%
    BTTS rate
    Paraguay100%
    Türkiye0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Paraguay100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickTürkiye to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 49% · edge -3.3 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Türkiye Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Türkiye to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Türkiye

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    14 Jun 2026A Australia0-2

    Paraguay

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    13 Jun 2026A USA1-4
    Market aligned with main pickTürkiye to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 49% · edge -3.3 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Türkiye Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Türkiye wins
    0Draws
    0Paraguay wins
    Market aligned with main pickTürkiye to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 49% · edge -3.3 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Türkiye to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Türkiye3
    Played
    Paraguay5
    Türkiye1
    Avg goals for
    Paraguay0.8
    Türkiye1.7
    Avg goals against
    Paraguay1.2
    Türkiye0
    Clean sheets
    Paraguay2
    Market aligned with main pickTürkiye to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 49% · edge -3.3 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Türkiye Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Season data supports Türkiye to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Paraguay43111-2
    4Türkiye33102-2
    7Paraguay43111-2
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Türkiye Over 2.5
    100%Paraguay Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Türkiye sit at 0% and Paraguay sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Türkiye v Paraguay prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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