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Treviso crestTreviso
v
Novara crestNovara

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 08 Nov, 16:30

Treviso v Novara Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 04:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Treviso and Novara meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing cautious recent form and defensive solidity. Treviso ranks 6th with 19 points, while Novara sits 13th with 13 points, reflecting a modest gap but similar recent point returns. Both teams have averaged fewer than one goal per game recently, with Treviso conceding 0.6 and Novara 1.4 goals per match. Novara’s slightly higher goal concession is offset by their lower scoring rate, suggesting a tactical battle likely to limit scoring opportunities in this mid-table clash.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Treviso concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.
  • Novara averages 1 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per match, showing moderate attacking and defensive balance.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates: Treviso 20%, Novara 40%, favoring fewer goals scored overall.
  • Treviso’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is just 20%, supporting a low-scoring game expectation.
  • Recent form points are equal (7 each), highlighting a balanced contest with limited goal output.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' defensive discipline and low scoring frequency. Treviso’s strong defensive record and Novara’s modest attack suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities. The price at 1.75 offers positive value against the implied 57.1% chance, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible pick. The data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in the defensive trends as the key factor for this fixture.

Treviso Defensive Strength0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Novara Moderate Attack1 goal scored per game
Neutral
BTTS RatesTreviso 20%, Novara 40%
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Frequency
Positive
Price Value Edge66% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+8.9 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical choice given the defensive solidity and low scoring rates of both teams. Treviso’s disciplined backline and Novara’s cautious approach suggest a tightly contested match with few clear-cut chances. The recent form data supports a low-scoring outcome, making this a prudent tactical and statistical selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · defensive solidity and low scoring

“This fixture’s defensive profiles and recent low-scoring trends strongly indicate a match where goals will be scarce. Both sides prioritize structure over attack, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Treviso concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.

Novara averages 1 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per match, showing moderate attacking and defensive balance.

Both teams have low BTTS rates: Treviso 20%, Novara 40%, favoring fewer goals scored overall.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent trends show low Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams, particularly Treviso at 20%.
  • This sample from recent matches indicates a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive solidity and controlled play, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals projection for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Treviso0.8
Avg goals scored
Novara1
Treviso0.6
Avg goals conceded
Novara1.4
Treviso20%
BTTS rate
Novara40%
Treviso20%
Over 2.5 goals
Novara40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +8.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Both teams show low BTTS rates, with Treviso at 20% and Novara at 40%, indicating that matches often end with one or no goals from one side. Combined with their modest scoring averages, this points to a controlled, low-goal encounter rather than an open, high-scoring game.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Treviso

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
01 Nov 2026A Cittadella0-1
24 Oct 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi2-1
17 Oct 2026A Folgore Caratese2-0
11 Oct 2026H Ospitaletto0-1
04 Oct 2026H Giana Erminio0-0

Novara

WLDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
02 Nov 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-0
25 Oct 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo0-2
18 Oct 2026A Albinoleffe2-2
10 Oct 2026H Cittadella0-2
04 Oct 2026A Dolomiti Bellunesi2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Novara Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Novara to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Treviso Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Treviso to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Recent form shows both teams earning 7 points in their last matches, with Treviso conceding fewer goals (0.6) than Novara (1.4). This balance of defensive resilience and modest attack supports the expectation of a low-scoring game consistent with Under 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNovara Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 35% · edge +13.6 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Novara to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Treviso Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Treviso to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+8.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Treviso and 40% for Novara, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Treviso Over 2.5
40%Novara Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show low Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams, particularly Treviso at 20%. This sample from recent matches indicates a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive solidity and controlled play, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals projection for this fixture.

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