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Toulouse crestToulouse
v
Monaco crestMonaco

Ligue 1 | Sat 13 Feb, 16:00

Toulouse v Monaco Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toulouse face Monaco in Ligue 1 on Sat 13 Feb, 16:00. Filipe Luis has made an impressive start in the Principality, guiding Monaco through their opening five league matches unbeaten. Monaco's unbeaten start and strong defence provide a solid base for victory.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score

  • At 15/8, Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 16%.
  • The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.
  • Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 8 and Monaco on 3.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Toulouse and 80% for Monaco.
  • Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Toulouse and 1 for Monaco are central to the read.
Price warning

Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 35% while the model sits nearer 16% (-18.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 16% for Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 8 and Monaco on 3. The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.

Model chance vs price16% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Negative
Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Monaco Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because the visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case. Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 8 and Monaco on 3. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score evidence

The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.

Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 8 and Monaco on 3.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Toulouse and 80% for Monaco.

Monaco Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Toulouse and 1 for Monaco are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toulouse1.6
Avg goals scored
Monaco1
Toulouse1
Avg goals conceded
Monaco1.6
Toulouse40%
BTTS rate
Monaco80%
Toulouse60%
Over 2.5 goals
Monaco40%

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toulouse

WLDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
06 Nov 2026H Strasbourg3-1
01 Nov 2026A Marseille0-2
25 Oct 2026H Estac Troyes0-0
16 Oct 2026A Le Mans3-0
10 Oct 2026A Monaco2-2

Monaco

DLDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
08 Nov 2026A Le Mans1-1
01 Nov 2026A Paris FC1-3
25 Oct 2026H Lille1-1
18 Oct 2026A Lorient0-1
10 Oct 2026H Toulouse2-2

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Toulouse Over 2.5
40%Monaco Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Toulouse sit at 60% and Monaco sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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