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Switzerland crestSwitzerland
v
Colombia crestColombia

World Cup | Tue 07 Jul, 21:00

Switzerland v Colombia Stats

Data last updated: Mon 06 Jul 2026, 03:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This World Cup round of 16 clash pits Switzerland against Colombia in a high-stakes knockout encounter where defensive discipline and tactical control will be paramount. Switzerland arrives with a solid attacking record, having scored nine goals in the tournament, relying on patient possession and structured buildup through key midfielders like Granit Xhaka. Colombia counters with a formidable defensive record, boasting three consecutive clean sheets and a low concession rate, while relying on sharp transition play and individual threats such as Luis Diaz. The match promises a tense, tactical battle with a narrow margin likely to decide who advances to the quarter-finals.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Colombia to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 44%, above the 36% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Colombia has kept three consecutive clean sheets in the tournament, showcasing defensive resilience.
  • Switzerland averages 360.6 passes per game with 87% accuracy, emphasizing possession control.
  • Colombia averages 13.3 shots per match, indicating a higher attacking volume than Switzerland's 8.8.
  • Luis Diaz and Daniel Munoz provide Colombia with key attacking threats capable of breaking down Swiss defense.
Price warning

Colombia to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 44% while the model sits nearer 36% (-7.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +37.5 pts edge at 4.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

Colombia's defensive solidity and unbeaten run provide a strong football read for a narrow victory despite the price being short at 2.00. Their ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on key attacking moments, especially through Luis Diaz, aligns with the model's 36% chance, though the market implies a 50% chance, indicating a negative . Reduced staking is advised until price drift or stronger late data emerge to improve value. Colombia's structured efficiency in knockout scenarios supports this football-led selection.

Defensive record3 consecutive clean sheets, only 1 goal conceded in tournament
Strong positive
Attacking volume13.3 shots per match vs Switzerland's 8.8
Positive
Model chance vs marketModel 36% chance vs market implied 50% chance
Negative
Tournament formUnbeaten in last 6 matches with 5 wins
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Colombia's defensive discipline and tactical sharpness give them the edge in this tight knockout match. Their recent clean sheets and ability to control transitions make them well-suited to frustrate Switzerland's possession-based approach, making a narrow Colombian win the most plausible outcome.

Main risk

The main risk is the short price which overstates Colombia's chance compared to the model, so staking should be reduced or delayed until better or team news improve the value.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Colombia's blend of defensive resilience and incisive attacking transitions, led by Luis Diaz, positions them as the slight favourites in a match likely decided by fine margins and tactical discipline.”

Key Data Signals

Colombia to Win evidence

Colombia has kept three consecutive clean sheets in the tournament, showcasing defensive resilience.

Switzerland averages 360.6 passes per game with 87% accuracy, emphasizing possession control.

Colombia averages 13.3 shots per match, indicating a higher attacking volume than Switzerland's 8.8.

Luis Diaz and Daniel Munoz provide Colombia with key attacking threats capable of breaking down Swiss defense.

What To Watch In The Data

Colombia to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, both teams have a balanced over/under 2.5 goals split, but Colombia's recent World Cup games have leaned towards under 2.5 goals, with three consecutive low-scoring results.
  • This trend suggests a cautious tempo and tactical discipline likely to limit goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Switzerland5.75
Avg corners for
Colombia4.25
Switzerland9.5
Avg total corners
Colombia7
Switzerland0.75
Avg yellow cards
Colombia1.5
Switzerland14
Avg shots
Colombia19.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 42% · edge +5.9 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Switzerland averages more corners (5.75) than Colombia (4.25), reflecting their possession control and territorial pressure. Colombia's higher shot volume (19.75 vs 14) indicates they rely on quick, direct attacks rather than sustained pressure. Colombia's higher yellow card average (1.5 vs 0.75) suggests a more physical approach, potentially disrupting Swiss rhythm.

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Useful next reads

World Cup hubfull betting preview for Switzerland v Colombiacorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Switzerland2.25
Avg goals scored
Colombia1.25
Switzerland0.75
Avg goals conceded
Colombia0.25
Switzerland75%
BTTS rate
Colombia25%
Switzerland50%
Over 2.5 goals
Colombia25%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 25% · edge +37.5 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Colombia's recent matches have been low-scoring, with three consecutive under 2.5 goal games and strong defensive displays. Switzerland's methodical possession style also suggests fewer clear-cut chances. This tactical setup supports a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals scenario, reflecting a tight, cautious contest.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 44% · edge -7.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Colombia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The Colombia to Win market at 2.00 is price-sensitive given the model's 36% chance versus the market's 50% implied probability. While Colombia's defensive form and unbeaten streak justify the selection, the current offer limited value, warranting caution and reduced stakes until price improves or further team insights emerge.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Switzerland

WWWD
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
03 Jul 2026H Algeria2-0
24 Jun 2026H Canada2-1
18 Jun 2026H Bosnia & Herzegovina4-1
13 Jun 2026A Qatar1-1

Colombia

WDWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
04 Jul 2026H Ghana1-0
28 Jun 2026H Portugal0-0
24 Jun 2026H Congo DR1-0
18 Jun 2026A Uzbekistan3-1
Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 44% · edge -7.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Colombia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Both teams have earned 10 points recently, but Colombia's form is marked by defensive solidity with only 0.25 goals conceded per game compared to Switzerland's 0.75. Colombia's lower BTTS rate (25%) versus Switzerland's 75% reflects their tighter defensive approach, reinforcing Colombia's edge in a low-scoring knockout scenario.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Switzerland wins
0Draws
0Colombia wins
Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 44% · edge -7.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
No previous head-to-head matches exist between Switzerland and Colombia, so historical data offers limited insight. Tactical and form indicators from the current tournament provide a more relevant basis for analysis in this knockout context.
Season team stats

World Cup

Switzerland4
Played
Colombia4
Switzerland2.3
Avg goals for
Colombia1.3
Switzerland0.8
Avg goals against
Colombia0.3
Switzerland1
Clean sheets
Colombia3
Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 44% · edge -7.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Colombia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Colombia's season-long defensive record is outstanding, conceding only one goal in four World Cup matches, underpinning their tactical emphasis on defensive compactness. Switzerland's higher goal output (2.25 per game) shows attacking capability but also exposes them to counter-attacks, favoring Colombia's structured defense in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Switzerland732104
1Colombia732103
Both teams top their groups with seven points, indicating strong tournament form. However, the knockout format reduces the impact of standings, shifting focus to tactical execution and match-day performance rather than league positioning.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Switzerland Over 2.5
25%Colombia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, both teams have a balanced over/under 2.5 goals split, but Colombia's recent World Cup games have leaned towards under 2.5 goals, with three consecutive low-scoring results. This trend suggests a cautious tempo and tactical discipline likely to limit goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Switzerland v Colombia prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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