Football Stats Hub

Swindon Town crestSwindon Town
v
Walsall crestWalsall

League Two | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Swindon Town v Walsall Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 00:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two clash features Walsall visiting Swindon Town, with Walsall currently sitting sixth in the table and Swindon seventeenth. Walsall have shown stronger recent form, collecting seven points in their last matches compared to Swindon's single point, and boast a more robust defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game versus Swindon's 1.6. The visitors' tactical discipline and attacking threat position them as favorites, though Swindon will seek to leverage home advantage and disrupt Walsall's rhythm in a contest that could hinge on defensive solidity and clinical finishing.

BT4Y best bet

Walsall to Win

  • Walsall ranks 6th with 15 points; Swindon 17th with 11 points.
  • Walsall concedes just 0.4 goals per game, Swindon concedes 1.6.
  • Walsall averages 12.4 shots and 3.6 shots on target per game, higher than Swindon's 10.8 and 2.6 respectively.
  • Walsall has a 40% BTTS rate, Swindon only 20%, indicating Walsall's more balanced attack and defense.
  • Walsall's attacker A. Pressley has scored 5 goals with 1 shot on target per 90 minutes, highlighting key offensive threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Walsall to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, defensive strength, and attacking efficiency. Walsall's low goals conceded per game and higher shot volume underline their control and chance creation. The of 29.2% at of 2.45 indicates a strong price-quality ratio. While data quality is solid for both teams, Walsall's consistent performances and key players like A. Pressley enhance in this selection.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Attacking Output12.4 shots per game
Positive
Value Edge55.8% model chance vs 40.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Verdict: Walsall's superior defensive record and recent form make them the likely winners in this League Two encounter. Their ability to limit goals conceded and generate quality chances underpins the in their victory, supported by consistent performances from key attackers and midfield creators.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player performance analysis

“Walsall's disciplined defense combined with effective attacking players like Pressley and Smith creates a compelling case for their victory. Their balance between controlling possession and finishing chances stands out in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Walsall to Win evidence

Walsall ranks 6th with 15 points; Swindon 17th with 11 points.

Walsall concedes just 0.4 goals per game, Swindon concedes 1.6.

Walsall averages 12.4 shots and 3.6 shots on target per game, higher than Swindon's 10.8 and 2.6 respectively.

Walsall has a 40% BTTS rate, Swindon only 20%, indicating Walsall's more balanced attack and defense.

What To Watch In The Data

Walsall to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Walsall's defensive strength and Swindon's lower scoring rate suggest a match with controlled tempo and limited goal bursts, aligning with a cautious Over 2.5 goals outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Swindon Town0.2
Avg goals scored
Walsall0.8
Swindon Town1.6
Avg goals conceded
Walsall0.4
Swindon Town20%
BTTS rate
Walsall40%
Swindon Town20%
Over 2.5 goals
Walsall0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Walsall's matches show a 40% rate of both teams scoring, higher than Swindon's 20%, indicating a moderate likelihood of BTTS. However, Walsall's strong defense conceding only 0.4 goals per game suggests a controlled game with fewer goals overall, supporting a cautious outlook on high-scoring outcomes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Swindon Town

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Crewe0-1
03 Oct 2026A Rochdale0-1
26 Sep 2026H Accrington ST1-1
19 Sep 2026A Salford City0-1
12 Sep 2026A York0-4

Walsall

DDWDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 6D 0L
10 Oct 2026A Fleetwood Town1-1
26 Sep 2026A Tranmere1-1
19 Sep 2026H Port Vale2-0
12 Sep 2026H Rochdale0-0
05 Sep 2026A Exeter City0-0
Market aligned with main pickWalsall to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Walsall Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Walsall's recent form is markedly better, securing 7 points compared to Swindon's 1 in recent matches. This momentum is underpinned by a solid defense conceding only 0.4 goals per game and a more effective attack, positioning Walsall as favorites to maintain their winning trajectory.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWalsall to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Walsall Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 55.8% for Walsall to Win sits against roughly 40.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Walsall have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Swindon Town.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Swindon Town Over 2.5
0%Walsall Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, indicating moderate scoring. Walsall's defensive strength and Swindon's lower scoring rate suggest a match with controlled tempo and limited goal bursts, aligning with a cautious Over 2.5 goals outlook.

Loading deeper match data…