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Sunderland crestSunderland
v
Manchester United crestManchester United

Premier League | Sat 09 May, 15:00

Sunderland v Manchester United Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sunderland face Manchester United in Premier League on Sat 09 May, 15:00. In contrast, Sunderland have collapsed at the Stadium of Light, losing four of their last five home games. Sunderland have struggled significantly to score at home recently, failing to net in three of their recent home defeats.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Sunderland Win

  • At 8/11, Sunderland Win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Sunderland’s home collapse is becoming impossible to ignore
  • Manchester United have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sunderland.
  • Manchester United have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Sunderland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Sunderland sit 7 in the table, while Manchester United sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Sunderland Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 27% (-30.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +14.3 pts edge at 1.62.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Sunderland Win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Manchester United have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sunderland. Sunderland’s home collapse is becoming impossible to ignore

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Negative
Manchester United have the stronger recent points return, taking 10.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester United have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Sunderland’s home collapse is becoming impossible to ignoreArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sunderland Win is the preferred angle because sunderland’s home collapse is becoming impossible to ignore Manchester United have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sunderland. There was emotion, edge and chaos, but there was also resilience.

Main risk

There was emotion, edge and chaos, but there was also resilience.

Key Data Signals

Sunderland Win evidence

Sunderland’s home collapse is becoming impossible to ignore

Manchester United have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sunderland.

Manchester United have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Sunderland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Sunderland sit 7 in the table, while Manchester United sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Sunderland Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sunderland1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Manchester United1.8
    Sunderland2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Manchester United1.4
    Sunderland60%
    BTTS rate
    Manchester United80%
    Sunderland60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Manchester United80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Premier League analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 28% · edge -0.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Sunderland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Sunderland to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Sunderland3.6
    Avg corners for
    Manchester United6
    Sunderland9.8
    Avg total corners
    Manchester United11.4
    Sunderland3.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Manchester United2.4
    Sunderland12.8
    Avg shots
    Manchester United13.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sunderland

    DLLWW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    02 May 2026A Wolves1-1
    24 Apr 2026H Nottingham Forest0-5
    19 Apr 2026A Aston Villa3-4
    12 Apr 2026H Tottenham1-0
    22 Mar 2026A Newcastle2-1

    Manchester United

    WWWLD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    03 May 2026H Liverpool3-2
    27 Apr 2026H Brentford2-1
    18 Apr 2026A Chelsea1-0
    13 Apr 2026H Leeds1-2
    20 Mar 2026A Bournemouth2-2
    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 28% · edge -0.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Sunderland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Sunderland wins
    1Draws
    6Manchester United wins
    04 Oct 2025Manchester United v Sunderland2-0
    09 Apr 2017Sunderland v Manchester United0-3
    26 Dec 2016Manchester United v Sunderland3-1
    13 Feb 2016Sunderland v Manchester United2-1
    26 Sep 2015Manchester United v Sunderland3-0
    28 Feb 2015Manchester United v Sunderland2-0
    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 28% · edge -0.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Sunderland to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Sunderland38
    Played
    Manchester United38
    Sunderland1.1
    Avg goals for
    Manchester United1.8
    Sunderland1.3
    Avg goals against
    Manchester United1.3
    Sunderland11
    Clean sheets
    Manchester United8
    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 28% · edge -0.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Sunderland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Season data supports Sunderland to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Manchester United71382011719
    7Sunderland5438141212-6
    Sunderland sit in position 7, while Manchester United sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Sunderland Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Sunderland Over 2.5
    80%Manchester United Over 2.5
    2.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sunderland sit at 60% and Manchester United sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Sunderland v Manchester United prediction

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    Betting context

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