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League Cup | Tue 08 Sep, 19:45

Sunderland v Hull City Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 08:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sunderland and Hull City face off in this EFL Cup third-round tie with both sides showing defensive resilience and cautious attacking patterns. Hull City have conceded just once in their last six matches, demonstrating a compact defensive setup that limits clear chances, while Sunderland's attacking volume may be tempered by expected squad rotation amid a demanding fixture schedule. Recent cup history and tactical approaches suggest a tight, low-scoring contest where both teams prioritize defensive solidity over expansive play, setting the stage for a match likely decided by narrow margins and limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Hull City have conceded only one goal in their last six matches across all competitions.
  • Sunderland averaged 14 shots with five on target in their recent 1-1 draw at Brentford.
  • Hull City have gone 10 consecutive EFL Cup ties without a win in normal time, often producing low-scoring matches.
  • Sunderland's rotation ahead of tough upcoming fixtures may reduce attacking fluency, supporting a cautious goal outlook.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals based on Hull City's exceptional defensive record, conceding just one goal in six matches and restricting opponents' shots on target. Sunderland's attacking volume is notable but faces a well-organized Hull defense adept at absorbing pressure without conceding high-quality chances. The recent head-to-head meeting, where Sunderland dominated possession and attempts yet lost 1-0, underlines Hull's defensive strength. This combination of data and tactical context supports a low-scoring outcome, with the current offering positive value given the model's 66% chance estimate.

Hull City's defensive solidity1 goal conceded in 6 matches
Strong positive
Sunderland's attacking volume14 shots, 5 on target at Brentford
Positive
Recent head-to-head defensive patternHull won 1-0 despite Sunderland's control
Strong positive
Rotation impact on SunderlandPotential reduced fluency in attack
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This match is poised for a tactical battle with Hull City's disciplined defense likely to stifle Sunderland's attacking efforts, especially with rotation affecting fluency. The defensive resilience and recent low-scoring cup ties suggest Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible call, reflecting the cautious approach both teams are expected to adopt in this knockout setting.

Main risk

However, with Hull drawing 1-1 at Stoke and Sunderland drawing 1-1 at Brentford recently, a 1-1 scoreline carries strong match-specific precedent, even if exact-score selections remain inherently fragile to a single late.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive control and rotation impact

“Hull City's ability to limit shots on target and Sunderland's expected rotation create a scenario where defensive discipline dominates, making a low-scoring game the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Hull City have conceded only one goal in their last six matches across all competitions.

Sunderland averaged 14 shots with five on target in their recent 1-1 draw at Brentford.

Hull City have gone 10 consecutive EFL Cup ties without a win in normal time, often producing low-scoring matches.

Sunderland's rotation ahead of tough upcoming fixtures may reduce attacking fluency, supporting a cautious goal outlook.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game stand at 2.3, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Hull City's recent cup history includes ten consecutive ties without a win in normal time, often featuring tight scorelines.
  • These trends suggest a tempo and tactical setup favoring Under 2.5 Goals, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive solidity and limit open-play chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sunderland

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Sunderland yet.

Hull City

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
25 Aug 2026A Stoke City1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Sunderland Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Sunderland to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Hull City's recent form is marked by strong defensive performances, conceding only once in six matches and maintaining clean sheets against top opposition. Sunderland's form shows consistent goal creation but also rotation impacts that may reduce attacking sharpness. This recent form data aligns with a low-scoring match expectation, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals pick.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sunderland-
Avg goals scored
Hull City1
Sunderland-
Avg goals conceded
Hull City1
Sunderland-
BTTS rate
Hull City100%
Sunderland-
Over 2.5 goals
Hull City0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Hull City's defensive record and Sunderland's moderate scoring suggest a low likelihood of both teams scoring. Hull's recent matches show a 0% BTTS rate, while Sunderland's attacking output is tempered by rotation and Hull's compact defense, supporting a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Sunderland Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.9, reflecting a 52.6% implied chance below the model's 66% estimate, indicating positive value. The price fairly accounts for Hull City's defensive strength and Sunderland's rotation, making this a solid price-sensitive selection rather than a heavy favorite.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Sunderland wins
5Draws
2Hull City wins
22 Feb 2025Sunderland v Hull City0-1
20 Oct 2024Hull City v Sunderland0-1
19 Jan 2024Sunderland v Hull City0-1
26 Dec 2023Hull City v Sunderland0-1
07 Apr 2023Sunderland v Hull City4-4
17 Dec 2022Hull City v Sunderland1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Sunderland to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The ten recent meetings between Sunderland and Hull City reveal a balanced rivalry with an average of 2.3 goals per game and two wins apiece. Hull's 1-0 victory at Sunderland despite being outshot highlights their defensive effectiveness. This historical pattern supports a cautious, low-scoring match rather than an open, high-scoring affair.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sunderland-
Avg corners for
Hull City4
Sunderland-
Avg total corners
Hull City5
Sunderland-
Avg yellow cards
Hull City1
Sunderland-
Avg shots
Hull City18
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Hull City averages 18 shots and 6 shots on target per 90 minutes, reflecting a controlled attacking approach with limited high-quality chances. Sunderland's data is thinner but their recent 14 shots with 5 on target indicate attacking intent. Discipline-wise, Hull averages 1 yellow card per game, suggesting a measured defensive style unlikely to disrupt flow excessively. Corner data for Hull at 4 per match points to moderate territorial pressure without overwhelming control.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Cup

Sunderland0
Played
Hull City1
Sunderland0
Avg goals for
Hull City2
Sunderland0
Avg goals against
Hull City1
Sunderland0
Clean sheets
Hull City0
Best odds for this sectionHull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Sunderland Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Sunderland to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Hull City's season defensive stats underline their ability to restrict opponents, conceding minimal goals and limiting shots on target. Sunderland's attacking stats show decent shot volume but a modest goal conversion rate, especially under rotation. These season-long trends support a cautious, low-scoring game with Hull's defense likely to hold firm.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Sunderland Over 2.5
0%Hull City Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game stand at 2.3, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Hull City's recent cup history includes ten consecutive ties without a win in normal time, often featuring tight scorelines. These trends suggest a tempo and tactical setup favoring Under 2.5 Goals, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive solidity and limit open-play chances.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Sunderland v Hull City prediction

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