Football Stats Hub

Sudtirol crestSudtirol
v
Cesena crestCesena

Serie B | Sat 31 Oct, 14:00

Sudtirol v Cesena Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sudtirol and Cesena meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown cautious attacking output this season. Sudtirol ranks 8th with 13 points, while Cesena sits 11th with 11 points, reflecting a competitive mid-table battle. Both sides have averaged less than a goal per game recently, with defensive solidity and measured tempo shaping their play. This encounter promises tactical discipline and a controlled pace, with neither side pushing aggressively for high-scoring outcomes, making a low-scoring match scenario plausible.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average just 0.9 goals per game recently, indicating limited scoring.
  • Sudtirol and Cesena have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, showing low frequency of high-scoring games.
  • Head-to-head matches average only 1.29 goals, suggesting tight contests.
  • Both teams maintain moderate shot volumes but with modest shots on target, reflecting cautious attacking.
  • Discipline and fouling rates are balanced, supporting a steady game flow without excessive disruptions.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' defensive tendencies and low scoring rates. Recent form data shows Sudtirol and Cesena averaging under one goal per match, supported by a low Over 2.5 Goals occurrence of 40% for each. The head-to-head average of 1.29 goals further underlines the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring game. The current at 1.67 offer positive value against the implied 59.9% chance, making this a sensible selection based on tactical caution and statistical trends.

Recent low scoringSudtirol 1.0, Cesena 0.8 goals per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals rate40% for both teams
Positive
Head-to-head average goals1.29 goals per match
Positive
Shots on target per gameModerate (Sudtirol 3.6, Cesena 2.8)
Neutral
Price vs model chance66% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+6.1 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This match is likely to be a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities. Both Sudtirol and Cesena have shown defensive resilience and modest attacking output, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice. The low average goals in their recent matches and head-to-head history support a cautious game where defenses are expected to hold firm.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring potential

“The statistical profile and recent performances of Sudtirol and Cesena suggest a tightly contested match with few clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average just 0.9 goals per game recently, indicating limited scoring.

Head-to-head matches average only 1.29 goals, suggesting tight contests.

Both teams maintain moderate shot volumes but with modest shots on target, reflecting cautious attacking.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.29, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and defensive discipline that limit goal opportunities.
  • The trend aligns with the current season's cautious scoring rates, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sudtirol1
Avg goals scored
Cesena0.8
Sudtirol1.4
Avg goals conceded
Cesena1.6
Sudtirol40%
BTTS rate
Cesena60%
Sudtirol40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cesena40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams have averaged fewer than one goal per game recently, with Sudtirol scoring 1.0 and Cesena 0.8 goals per match. Their BTTS rates differ, with Cesena at 60% and Sudtirol at 40%, suggesting Cesena concedes and scores more often. However, the combined low scoring and a head-to-head average of 1.29 goals point toward a match unlikely to exceed 2.5 goals, with a moderate chance of BTTS.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Sudtirol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Cesena to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Sudtirol to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Cesena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+6.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Sudtirol and 40% for Cesena, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sudtirol

LDLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 2L
27 Oct 2026A Padova0-2
24 Oct 2026H Sampdoria1-1
18 Oct 2026A Juve Stabia0-3
10 Oct 2026H Ascoli0-0
20 Sep 2026A Arezzo4-1

Cesena

WLDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 2L
27 Oct 2026H Empoli2-1
24 Oct 2026A Modena0-3
18 Oct 2026H Avellino1-1
10 Oct 2026A Benevento0-2
18 Sep 2026A Juve Stabia1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Sudtirol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Cesena to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Sudtirol to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Cesena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form shows both teams earning 5 points in their last matches, with low goal tallies (Sudtirol 1.0, Cesena 0.8 goals per game). Both have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating that high-scoring games are exceptions rather than the norm. Defensive solidity and cautious attacking approaches have characterized their latest performances, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sudtirol Over 2.5
40%Cesena Over 2.5
1.29H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.29, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a tempo and defensive discipline that limit goal opportunities. The trend aligns with the current season's cautious scoring rates, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this match.

Loading deeper match data…