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Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz
v
Marseille crestMarseille

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 17:45

Sturm Graz v Marseille Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 13:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash features Sturm Graz hosting Marseille in a fixture where both sides have shown tendencies to generate set-piece opportunities. Sturm Graz has averaged 4 corners per game while Marseille has been more aggressive with 6 corners on average. Recent form indicates a balanced approach to attack and defense, with both teams capable of sustaining pressure and creating wide attacking plays that lead to corners. The match promises tactical battles on the flanks, with Marseille's higher shot volume suggesting they will push forward frequently, increasing corner chances.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Sturm Graz averages 4 corners per match, Marseille 6 corners per match
  • Recent matches show both teams maintain steady attacking pressure leading to set pieces
  • Marseille's higher shot volume (12.5) indicates sustained offensive activity
  • Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, supporting attacking intent

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a value bet with a 62.1% chance against an implied market chance of 54.6%, offering a positive edge of 7.5%. Both teams' average corners per game combine to comfortably exceed the 9.5 threshold, supported by Marseille's aggressive attacking style and Sturm Graz's steady delivery of set-piece opportunities. The corner count is driven by sustained pressure and wide play, making this a statistically and tactically sound selection without price sensitivity concerns.

Model Probability62.1% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+7.5 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance62.1% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+7.5 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge62.1% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+7.5 pts)
Strong positive
Team Corner AveragesSturm Graz 4, Marseille 6 per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with frequent wide attacks and sustained pressure from both Sturm Graz and Marseille, leading to numerous corner situations. Marseille's higher shot and attacking volume combined with Sturm Graz's consistent corner generation creates a strong tactical and statistical foundation for Over 9.5 Corners.

Main risk

Their inability to reproduce domestic attacking performances on the continental stage has become their biggest concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market analysis

“The corner market here is compelling given Marseille's offensive intent and Sturm Graz's ability to force set pieces through wing play. Both teams' styles suggest a high volume of corners, making Over 9.5 a smart angle to consider.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Sturm Graz averages 4 corners per match, Marseille 6 corners per match

Recent matches show both teams maintain steady attacking pressure leading to set pieces

Marseille's higher shot volume (12.5) indicates sustained offensive activity

Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, supporting attacking intent

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 50% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a moderate tempo and openness that encourages attacking transitions and set pieces.
  • This trend supports the likelihood of a lively match with multiple corner opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sturm Graz0
Avg goals scored
Marseille0.5
Sturm Graz1.5
Avg goals conceded
Marseille2.5
Sturm Graz0%
BTTS rate
Marseille50%
Sturm Graz50%
Over 2.5 goals
Marseille50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams have a 50% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Marseille averaging 0.5 goals per game and Sturm Graz struggling to score recently. The balanced goal threat and BTTS rates indicate open play that often leads to attacking pressure and set-piece chances, indirectly supporting a higher corner count.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League fixtures and predictionsSturm Graz v Marseille predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 65% · edge +2.7 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Sturm Graz to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Marseille to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 62.1% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+7.5 pts). Marseille lead the corner sample at 6 per match, with Sturm Graz lower at 4.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sturm Graz

LD
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
15 Oct 2026A Bournemouth0-3
16 Sep 2026H Rennes0-0

Marseille

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
15 Oct 2026H Olympiakos Piraeus0-1
17 Sep 2026A Beşiktaş1-4
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.3 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Sturm Graz to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Marseille to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
Marseille Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Recent form shows Sturm Graz with a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals but no BTTS, while Marseille also has a 50% over 2.5 rate and 50% BTTS rate. Both teams' recent matches feature moderate attacking output and set-piece generation, supporting a steady flow of corners in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
50%Marseille Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 50% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a moderate tempo and openness that encourages attacking transitions and set pieces. This trend supports the likelihood of a lively match with multiple corner opportunities.

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