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Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz
v
Grazer AK crestGrazer AK

Bundesliga | Sun 18 Oct, 16:00

Sturm Graz v Grazer AK Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 02:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sturm Graz hosts Grazer AK in this Austrian Bundesliga clash, with both sides showing contrasting attacking and defensive tendencies. Sturm Graz ranks higher in the table and has been involved in matches with a fair amount of set-piece activity, while Grazer AK tends to play a more cautious game but still contributes to corner counts. The fixture promises territorial battles and sustained pressure, which often leads to numerous corners. Both teams have shown moderate goal-scoring form, but the focus here is on set-piece opportunities created through wide play and attacking transitions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Sturm Graz averages 6.8 corners per game, Grazer AK 4.6, combining for over 11 per match on average.
  • Recent form shows Sturm Graz matches go over 9.5 corners 69% of the time, indicating a strong trend.
  • Both teams generate a high volume of shots (Sturm Graz 14.6, Grazer AK 17 per game), often from wide areas leading to corners.
  • The match tempo and attacking styles suggest sustained pressure and repeated deliveries into the box, increasing corner chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance against an implied market chance of 54.6%, reflecting a 14.4% . Sturm Graz's aggressive wing play and Grazer AK's defensive positioning often force corners. Both teams' average corners per game exceed nine, supported by high shot volumes and fouling patterns that lead to set-piece situations. The rating of 85% underscores the robustness of this angle, making it a compelling selection for bettors.

Model Chance69% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+14.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance69% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+14.4 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge69% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+14.4 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence85%
Strong positive
Recent Corner AveragesSturm Graz 6.8, Grazer AK 4.6 per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Over 9.5 Corners is a tactically sound pick given Sturm Graz's control in wide play and Grazer AK's tendency to concede corners under pressure. The data shows both teams frequently engage in matches with high corner counts, driven by their attacking styles and defensive fouls. This bet aligns well with the match dynamics and statistical trends.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“The corner count is a telling indicator of match tempo and territorial control here, with Sturm Graz's wing control and Grazer AK's defensive fouling patterns setting the stage for a high corner tally.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Sturm Graz averages 6.8 corners per game, Grazer AK 4.6, combining for over 11 per match on average.

Recent form shows Sturm Graz matches go over 9.5 corners 69% of the time, indicating a strong trend.

Both teams generate a high volume of shots (Sturm Graz 14.6, Grazer AK 17 per game), often from wide areas leading to corners.

The match tempo and attacking styles suggest sustained pressure and repeated deliveries into the box, increasing corner chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.67, indicating open play.
  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goal attempts and set-piece situations, supporting a higher corner count through sustained attacking phases.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sturm Graz1.2
Avg goals scored
Grazer AK0.8
Sturm Graz1.6
Avg goals conceded
Grazer AK0.8
Sturm Graz60%
BTTS rate
Grazer AK40%
Sturm Graz60%
Over 2.5 goals
Grazer AK40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 83% · edge -6.7 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates, with Sturm Graz averaging 1.2 goals and Grazer AK 0.8 per game. BTTS rates are 60% for Sturm Graz and 40% for Grazer AK, indicating some defensive solidity. This suggests goals may be limited but the attacking play still generates set-piece chances leading to corners.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Bundesliga hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sturm Graz

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
10 Oct 2026A Austria Vienna2-0
20 Sep 2026A Red Bull Salzburg0-3
13 Sep 2026H Lask Linz2-1
30 Aug 2026A Rapid Vienna1-3
22 Aug 2026H Austria Lustenau1-1

Grazer AK

DDWDL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Red Bull Salzburg0-0
19 Sep 2026H Austria Vienna2-2
12 Sep 2026A SCR Altach2-1
29 Aug 2026H Wolfsberger AC0-0
21 Aug 2026A Ried0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Grazer AK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Grazer AK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form data shows Sturm Graz matches go over 9.5 corners 69% of the time, reflecting their attacking style and territorial control. Grazer AK's matches have a lower over 9.5 corner rate but still contribute significantly. This trend supports the likelihood of a high corner count in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 67% · edge +8.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Grazer AK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Grazer AK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+14.4 pts). Sturm Graz lead the corner sample at 6.8 per match, with Grazer AK lower at 4.6.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
40%Grazer AK Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.67, indicating open play. Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goal attempts and set-piece situations, supporting a higher corner count through sustained attacking phases.

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