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Stockport County crestStockport County
v
Stevenage crestStevenage

League One | Wed 13 May, 20:00

Stockport County v Stevenage Stats

Data last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026, 00:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stockport County face Stevenage in League One on Wed 13 May, 20:00. Ben Osborn’s stoppage-time winner in the first meeting changed the entire mood of this tie.

BT4Y best bet

Stockport County Win

  • At 21/20, Stockport County Win implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead carefully.
  • Stockport County have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Stevenage.
  • Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Stockport County Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Stockport County sit 3 in the table, while Stevenage sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Stockport County Win sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Stockport County have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Stevenage. Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead carefully.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Neutral
Stockport County have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Stockport County Win is the preferred angle because stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead carefully. Stockport County have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Stevenage. There is quality on both sides, but the details separating them are small.

Main risk

There is quality on both sides, but the details separating them are small.

Key Data Signals

Stockport County Win evidence

Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead.

Stockport County have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Stevenage.

Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Stockport County Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Stockport County sit 3 in the table, while Stevenage sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Stockport County Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Stockport County8.2
    Avg corners for
    Stevenage3.4
    Stockport County12.6
    Avg total corners
    Stevenage9
    Stockport County2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Stevenage1
    Stockport County15.8
    Avg shots
    Stevenage9.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 50% · edge +11.8 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    more League One analysisStockport County v Stevenage predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Stockport County1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Stevenage1
    Stockport County1
    Avg goals conceded
    Stevenage0.8
    Stockport County60%
    BTTS rate
    Stevenage40%
    Stockport County60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Stevenage20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 51% · edge +15.4 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickStockport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -3.9 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Stockport County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Stockport County to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Stockport County

    WWLWL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    09 May 2026A Stevenage1-0
    02 May 2026A Barnsley3-1
    28 Apr 2026H Port Vale1-2
    25 Apr 2026H Peterborough3-1
    21 Apr 2026H Mansfield Town0-1

    Stevenage

    LWDWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    09 May 2026H Stockport County0-1
    02 May 2026H Wigan1-0
    25 Apr 2026A Doncaster1-1
    21 Apr 2026H Barnsley1-0
    18 Apr 2026H Lincoln2-2
    Market aligned with main pickStockport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -3.9 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Stockport County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Stockport County wins
    0Draws
    4Stevenage wins
    09 May 2026Stevenage v Stockport County0-1
    28 Feb 2026Stevenage v Stockport County2-1
    13 Dec 2025Stockport County v Stevenage1-3
    01 Apr 2025Stockport County v Stevenage3-0
    14 Dec 2024Stevenage v Stockport County2-1
    18 Feb 2023Stockport County v Stevenage2-0
    Market aligned with main pickStockport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -3.9 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Stockport County to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    League One

    Stockport County49
    Played
    Stevenage48
    Stockport County1.5
    Avg goals for
    Stevenage1
    Stockport County1.3
    Avg goals against
    Stevenage1
    Stockport County14
    Clean sheets
    Stevenage19
    Market aligned with main pickStockport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -3.9 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Stockport County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Season data supports Stockport County to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Stockport County774622111313
    6Stevenage75462112133
    Stockport County sit in position 3, while Stevenage sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Stockport County Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Stockport County Over 2.5
    20%Stevenage Over 2.5
    2.71H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Stockport County sit at 60% and Stevenage sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.71 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Stockport County v Stevenage prediction

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    Betting context

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