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Stockport County crestStockport County
v
AFC Wimbledon crestAFC Wimbledon

League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 19:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stockport County host AFC Wimbledon in a League One clash where defensive solidity and recent scoring trends suggest a tight encounter. Stockport County, sitting second in the table, have conceded just 0.6 goals per game recently, while AFC Wimbledon, struggling in 17th, have a leaky defense conceding 2.4 goals per match. Both teams have shown a cautious approach with Stockport averaging 1.4 goals scored and Wimbledon only 0.6, indicating a likely low-scoring game. The tactical setup and form data point towards a match controlled more by defensive discipline than attacking flair, setting the stage for a contest with limited goal action.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Stockport County concede just 0.6 goals per game recently, showing strong defensive form
  • AFC Wimbledon have a high goals against average of 2.4, but score only 0.6 per game, indicating attacking struggles
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates recently: Stockport 20%, Wimbledon 60%, favoring fewer goals
  • Head-to-head average goals in last 6 matches is 1.83, supporting a low-scoring trend
  • Stockport County rank 2nd with 23 points, Wimbledon 17th with 13 points, reflecting form gap and defensive focus

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 65.7% chance, reflecting both teams' recent low scoring and defensive tendencies. Stockport County's strong defensive record and modest attacking output combine with AFC Wimbledon's struggles upfront to suggest limited goal opportunities. The head-to-head average of 1.83 goals per game further supports a low-scoring outcome. This pick offers clear value at of 2.7, with a significant of 28.7%, making it a compelling choice based on statistical and tactical evidence. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Stockport County defensive form0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
AFC Wimbledon attacking struggles0.6 goals scored per game
Positive
Head-to-head goals average1.83 goals per match
Positive
Model chance52% model chance vs 37% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value edge52% model chance vs 37% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sound pick given Stockport County's defensive discipline and AFC Wimbledon's limited attacking threat. The data shows a clear pattern of low scoring in recent matches and head-to-head clashes, making a cautious, tight game the most probable outcome. This bet aligns well with both tactical and statistical insights.

Main risk

However, their lack of recent goals is a major hurdle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and attacking limitations

“Stockport County's solid defensive shape combined with AFC Wimbledon's scoring difficulties makes Under 2.5 Goals a logical and data-backed selection for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Stockport County concede just 0.6 goals per game recently, showing strong defensive form

AFC Wimbledon have a high goals against average of 2.4, but score only 0.6 per game, indicating attacking struggles

Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates recently: Stockport 20%, Wimbledon 60%, favoring fewer goals

Head-to-head average goals in last 6 matches is 1.83, supporting a low-scoring trend

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.83, indicating a trend towards low-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive solidity and fewer goal chances, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Stockport County1.4
Avg goals scored
AFC Wimbledon0.6
Stockport County0.6
Avg goals conceded
AFC Wimbledon2.4
Stockport County40%
BTTS rate
AFC Wimbledon60%
Stockport County20%
Over 2.5 goals
AFC Wimbledon60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have low scoring rates and moderate BTTS percentages, with Stockport at 40% and Wimbledon at 60%. The average goals per game in their recent head-to-head is 1.83, supporting a controlled goals environment. This points to a match where both teams may not score, or goals will be limited, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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AFC Wimbledon Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Stockport County to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
AFC Wimbledon to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Stockport County Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
The 52% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Stockport County and 60% for AFC Wimbledon, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Other Options: Double Chance (Home/Draw) covers two outcomes at a lower price.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Stockport County

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
27 Oct 2026A Oxford United0-1
24 Oct 2026A Notts County1-1
20 Oct 2026A Doncaster2-0
17 Oct 2026H Bromley1-0
10 Oct 2026H Barnsley3-1

AFC Wimbledon

DLLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Wycombe1-1
20 Oct 2026H Mansfield Town0-3
17 Oct 2026A Sheffield Wednesday0-5
10 Oct 2026A Plymouth1-2
26 Sep 2026A Cambridge United1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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AFC Wimbledon Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Stockport County to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
AFC Wimbledon to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Stockport County Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Recent form data shows Stockport County with 10 points and a strong defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while AFC Wimbledon have just 2 points and concede 2.4 goals per match. Stockport's low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20% contrasts with Wimbledon's 60%, but overall the trend favors fewer goals due to Stockport's defensive control and Wimbledon's attacking inefficiency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Stockport County Over 2.5
60%AFC Wimbledon Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.83, indicating a trend towards low-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive solidity and fewer goal chances, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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