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Stevenage crestStevenage
v
Stockport County crestStockport County

League One | Sat 12 Dec, 12:30

Stevenage v Stockport County Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 21:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stevenage face Stockport County in League One on Sat 12 Dec, 12:30. Ben Osborn’s stoppage-time winner in the first meeting changed the entire mood of this tie.

BT4Y best bet

Stevenage Win

  • At 8/1, Stevenage Win implies roughly 11%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 26%.
  • Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead carefully.
  • Stevenage have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Stockport County.
  • Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Stevenage Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Stevenage sit 13 in the table, while Stockport County sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 26% for Stevenage Win sits against roughly 11% implied by the current price. Stevenage have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Stockport County. Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead carefully.

Model chance vs price26% model chance against roughly 11% implied
Strong positive
Stevenage have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Stevenage Win is the preferred angle because stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead carefully. Stevenage have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Stockport County. There is quality on both sides, but the details separating them are small.

Main risk

There is quality on both sides, but the details separating them are small.

Key Data Signals

Stevenage Win evidence

Stevenage's struggle for away goals suggests a lower scoring affair as Stockport look to manage their aggregate lead.

Stevenage have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Stockport County.

Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Stevenage Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Stevenage sit 13 in the table, while Stockport County sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Stevenage Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Stevenage1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Stockport County1.6
    Stevenage1
    Avg goals conceded
    Stockport County1.2
    Stevenage60%
    BTTS rate
    Stockport County20%
    Stevenage60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Stockport County40%

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Stevenage

    LWWDD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 2L
    19 Sep 2026A Leyton Orient0-1
    10 Sep 2026H Luton2-1
    05 Sep 2026A Barnsley5-1
    01 Sep 2026A Peterborough0-0
    29 Aug 2026H Doncaster2-2

    Stockport County

    WDLWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 3L
    26 Sep 2026H Peterborough1-0
    19 Sep 2026A Sheffield Wednesday0-0
    12 Sep 2026H Leicester3-4
    05 Sep 2026A Wigan4-0
    02 Sep 2026A Luton0-2

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Stevenage Over 2.5
    40%Stockport County Over 2.5
    2.63H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Stevenage sit at 60% and Stockport County sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.63 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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