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St Patrick's Athl. crestSt Patrick's Athl.
v
Shelbourne crestShelbourne

Premier Division | Fri 16 Oct, 20:00

St Patrick's Athl. v Shelbourne Stats

Data last updated: Thu 15 Oct 2026, 08:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division fixture between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne features two sides with contrasting scoring profiles. St Patrick's Athl. ranks second in the league with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game recently, while Shelbourne, sitting fourth, has a more open style but has conceded 1.4 goals per match. Recent form shows St Patrick's Athl. averaging only 1.8 goals per game with a low Over 2.5 rate of 20%, whereas Shelbourne scores 2 per game but with a higher Over 2.5 rate of 60%. This suggests a tactical battle with a likelihood of a lower scoring outcome.

BT4Y best bet

Shelbourne Asian Handicap +1

  • St Patrick's Athl. concedes just 0.4 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive solidity.
  • Shelbourne has a higher Over 2.5 Goals rate (60%) but concedes 1.4 goals per game, suggesting vulnerability at the back.
  • Recent matches show St Patrick's Athl. rarely exceed 2 goals, with a 20% Over 2.5 rate.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.3 over 10 matches, supporting a moderate scoring expectation.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 60.8% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive strength and low recent Over 2.5 rate. Despite Shelbourne's higher scoring tendency, their defensive concessions and the head-to-head average of 2.3 goals suggest a controlled tempo. The price at 2.08 offers positive value with a 12.7% edge, indicating this market is a solid choice based on statistical trends and tactical context.

Model Chance53.4% model chance
Strong positive
Implied Chance53.4% model chance
Strong positive
Value Edge53.4% model chance
Strong positive
Confidence75
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given St Patrick's Athl.'s disciplined defense and Shelbourne's inconsistent defensive performances. The data suggests a tactical match with limited clear-cut chances, making a lower scoring game more probable. This aligns with recent form and the teams' scoring patterns, supporting a cautious approach to goal expectations.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical balance

“St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive resilience combined with Shelbourne's moderate attacking threat sets the stage for a match where goals may be scarce. The statistical profile favors a tight game rather than an open, high-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Shelbourne Asian Handicap +1 evidence

St Patrick's Athl. Concedes just 0.4 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive solidity.

Shelbourne has a higher Over 2.5 Goals rate (60%) but concedes 1.4 goals per game, suggesting vulnerability at the back.

Recent matches show St Patrick's Athl. Rarely exceed 2 goals, with a 20% Over 2.5 rate.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.3 over 10 matches, supporting a moderate scoring expectation.

What To Watch In The Data

Shelbourne Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • Analysis of the last ten head-to-head matches reveals an average of 2.3 goals per game, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Recent Over 2.5 Goals rates differ significantly between the teams, with Shelbourne at 60% and St Patrick's Athl. at 20%, suggesting that while the away side can contribute to higher scoring games, the overall tempo and defensive discipline may keep goals under 2.5 in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

St Patrick's Athl.1.8
Avg goals scored
Shelbourne2
St Patrick's Athl.0.4
Avg goals conceded
Shelbourne1.4
St Patrick's Athl.0%
BTTS rate
Shelbourne80%
St Patrick's Athl.20%
Over 2.5 goals
Shelbourne60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +12.7 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Recent goal trends show St Patrick's Athl. averaging 1.8 goals per game with no Both Teams To Score (BTTS) occurrences, highlighting defensive control. Shelbourne, while scoring more, concedes frequently, leading to an 80% BTTS rate. The head-to-head average of 2.3 goals indicates moderate scoring, supporting a low to moderate goal count rather than an open game.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionShelbourne Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Shelbourne to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The model rates Shelbourne Asian Handicap +1 at 53.4% on the latest available numbers.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

St Patrick's Athl.

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
19 Sep 2026A Sligo Rovers1-0
14 Sep 2026A Dundalk4-0
11 Sep 2026H Shamrock Rovers2-0
28 Aug 2026H Waterford0-2
21 Aug 2026A Drogheda United2-0

Shelbourne

WDWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
09 Oct 2026H Sligo Rovers5-1
25 Sep 2026A Galway United1-1
18 Sep 2026A Dundalk3-2
14 Sep 2026H Drogheda United1-2
11 Sep 2026H Derry City0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -1.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Shelbourne Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Shelbourne to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
St Patrick's Athl. has collected 12 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game and maintaining a low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20%. Shelbourne's recent form is less consistent, earning 7 points and conceding 1.4 goals per game, with a higher Over 2.5 rate of 60%. This contrast suggests a match leaning towards fewer goals, especially given St Patrick's Athl.'s home defensive solidity.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%St Patrick's Athl. Over 2.5
60%Shelbourne Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last ten head-to-head matches reveals an average of 2.3 goals per game, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Recent Over 2.5 Goals rates differ significantly between the teams, with Shelbourne at 60% and St Patrick's Athl. at 20%, suggesting that while the away side can contribute to higher scoring games, the overall tempo and defensive discipline may keep goals under 2.5 in this encounter.

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