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St. Louis City crestSt. Louis City
v
Portland Timbers crestPortland Timbers

Major League Soccer | Thu 29 Oct, 00:30

St. Louis City v Portland Timbers Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer fixture features St. Louis City hosting Portland Timbers in a late October clash with playoff implications. Louis City, sitting third in the standings, have shown attacking intent with an average of 2.2 goals per game recently, while Portland Timbers have struggled defensively, conceding 2 goals per match on average. Both teams have a history of open play and goal-scoring, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter under neutral venue conditions. Tactical approaches suggest an open game with both sides pushing forward, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Louis City average 2.2 goals per game recently, showing strong attacking form
  • Portland Timbers concede 2 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerability
  • Both teams have a combined 70% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.5 over the last 8 meetings
  • Key attackers like C. Holse and Rafael Navarro boost St. Louis City's goal threat

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 57.6% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' offensive tendencies and defensive lapses. Louis City’s 80% rate of games over 2.5 goals and Portland’s 60% rate support a high-scoring outlook. The head-to-head average of 3.5 goals per match further reinforces this expectation. The current offer positive value with a 7.6% edge and no price warnings, making Over 3.5 Goals an attractive bet based on attacking output and match tempo.

St. Louis City Over 2.5 Goals Rate80%
Strong positive
Portland Timbers Over 2.5 Goals Rate60%
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.5 goals
Strong positive
Model Probability57.6% model chance vs 50% implied (+7.6 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge57.6% model chance vs 50% implied (+7.6 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as St. Louis City’s potent offense meets Portland Timbers’ leaky defense. The data shows both teams frequently involved in high-scoring matches, and key attackers are in form. This match should produce multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection based on tactical openness and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

Portland Timbers carry the stronger scoring threat, but St.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Louis City's attacking prowess combined with Portland's defensive struggles sets the stage for a goal-heavy encounter. The teams' recent form and head-to-head history strongly suggest a lively match with plenty of scoring chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Louis City average 2.2 goals per game recently, showing strong attacking form

Portland Timbers concede 2 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerability

Both teams have a combined 70% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.5 over the last 8 meetings

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a history of high-scoring games.
  • This trend over a meaningful sample size suggests a fast tempo and open play, supporting the expectation of multiple goals and reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

St. Louis City2.2
Avg goals scored
Portland Timbers1.4
St. Louis City1.6
Avg goals conceded
Portland Timbers2
St. Louis City40%
BTTS rate
Portland Timbers60%
St. Louis City80%
Over 2.5 goals
Portland Timbers60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +7.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals and mixed BTTS outcomes. Louis City’s 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Portland’s 60% rate highlight frequent high-scoring games. The 3.5 average goals in their recent head-to-heads underline the potential for an open contest with goals at both ends.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer hubfull betting preview for St. Louis City v Portland Timberscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.2 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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St. Louis City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
St. Louis City to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Portland Timbers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Portland Timbers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 57.6% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+7.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for St. Louis City and 60% for Portland Timbers, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Louis' high scoring average could exceed two goals, negating the exact score prediction.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

St. Louis City

LLDWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
25 Oct 2026A Real Salt Lake0-3
17 Oct 2026A Minnesota United FC2-3
15 Oct 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps0-0
12 Oct 2026H Los Angeles Galaxy6-2
01 Oct 2026A New York Red Bulls3-0

Portland Timbers

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
25 Oct 2026H Charlotte3-2
18 Oct 2026H Colorado Rapids0-0
15 Oct 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy0-2
11 Oct 2026A Sporting Kansas City3-3
27 Sep 2026A San Jose Earthquakes1-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 84% vs implied 82% · edge +2.4 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
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St. Louis City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
St. Louis City to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Portland Timbers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Portland Timbers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
Recent form data shows St. Louis City scoring 2.2 goals per game with an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals matches, indicating strong offensive momentum. Portland Timbers have scored less but concede 2 goals per game, contributing to high-scoring matches. Both teams’ recent outputs align with the Over 3.5 Goals prediction, reflecting an open and attacking game style.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%St. Louis City Over 2.5
60%Portland Timbers Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a history of high-scoring games. This trend over a meaningful sample size suggests a fast tempo and open play, supporting the expectation of multiple goals and reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.

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