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Sport Recife crestSport Recife
v
Goias crestGoias

Serie B | Sat 14 Nov, 19:30

Sport Recife v Goias Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 17:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Goias visiting Sport Recife in a fixture where Goias hold a slight edge in the standings and recent form. Goias have collected 13 points in their last five matches, showing defensive solidity with only 0.2 goals conceded per game, while Sport Recife have struggled defensively, conceding 1.6 goals per match recently. Goias' tactical discipline and efficient attack contrast with Sport Recife's vulnerability at the back, setting up a contest where Goias can exploit defensive gaps and maintain their momentum away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Goias to Win

  • Goias have a strong recent form with 13 points in last five games versus Sport Recife's 5 points.
  • Goias concede just 0.2 goals per game recently, indicating defensive strength.
  • Sport Recife concede 1.6 goals per game, showing defensive frailty.
  • Goias rank higher in the league and have a positive goal difference edge.
  • Goias average more shots per game (17.4) than Sport Recife (13.8), indicating attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Goias to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record. Goias' ability to limit goals conceded to just 0.2 per game contrasts sharply with Sport Recife's 1.6, highlighting a defensive mismatch. Additionally, Goias' higher shot volume and efficient attackers like Kadu, who averages over 1.2 shots on target per 90 minutes, bolster their winning prospects. The at 1.9 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 52.6%. This pick is supported by solid data and tactical context without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent formGoias 13 points vs Sport Recife 5 points
Strong positive
Defensive recordGoias concede 0.2 goals/game, Sport Recife 1.6
Strong positive
Attacking pressureGoias average 17.4 shots/game vs 13.8
Positive
Key player impactKadu 11 goals, 1.26 SOT/90
Positive
Price value67.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+15 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Goias' recent defensive resilience and superior form make them the tactical favorite to win this match. Their ability to limit chances and capitalize on attacking opportunities, especially through key players like Kadu, aligns with the data showing a clear edge over Sport Recife, who have struggled defensively and in form.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Goias' disciplined defense and efficient attack create a strong foundation for an away win, especially against a Sport Recife side vulnerable at the back. Their recent form and player performances underline their capability to secure all three points.”

Key Data Signals

Goias to Win evidence

Goias have a strong recent form with 13 points in last five games versus Sport Recife's 5 points.

Goias concede just 0.2 goals per game recently, indicating defensive strength.

Sport Recife concede 1.6 goals per game, showing defensive frailty.

Goias rank higher in the league and have a positive goal difference edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Goias to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 1.56, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend aligns with Goias' defensive approach and suggests a match likely to feature fewer goals, supporting a cautious tactical battle rather than an open, high-scoring game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sport Recife1.2
Avg goals scored
Goias1.4
Sport Recife1.6
Avg goals conceded
Goias0.2
Sport Recife80%
BTTS rate
Goias20%
Sport Recife40%
Over 2.5 goals
Goias20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 48% · edge +14.1 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Goal trends indicate a low-scoring pattern for Goias, conceding only 0.2 goals per game recently, while Sport Recife have a higher goals-against rate. Both teams to score is unlikely given Goias' defensive discipline and Sport Recife's struggles to score consistently. Over 2.5 goals is less probable, aligning with Goias' conservative defensive style and Sport Recife's modest attacking output.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sport Recife

LDWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
06 Nov 2026A Operario-PR2-3
31 Oct 2026A Botafogo SP1-1
24 Oct 2026H Criciuma2-1
17 Oct 2026H Fortaleza EC0-2
11 Oct 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-1

Goias

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
08 Nov 2026H Ponte Preta1-0
02 Nov 2026H CRB2-1
27 Oct 2026A Ceara2-0
19 Oct 2026H Nautico Recife0-0
11 Oct 2026A Operario-PR2-0
Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Goias Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Goias have demonstrated strong recent form, securing 13 points in their last five matches with a solid defensive record of just 0.2 goals conceded per game. In contrast, Sport Recife have managed only 5 points and conceded 1.6 goals per game, highlighting a form gap that favors Goias' winning chances in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Goias Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 67.6% for Goias to Win sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Goias have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Sport Recife.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sport Recife Over 2.5
20%Goias Over 2.5
1.56H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 1.56, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. This trend aligns with Goias' defensive approach and suggests a match likely to feature fewer goals, supporting a cautious tactical battle rather than an open, high-scoring game.

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