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Sparta Rotterdam crestSparta Rotterdam
v
Willem II crestWillem II

Eredivisie | Sat 17 Oct, 20:00

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II meet in an Eredivisie clash where both teams have struggled defensively this season, creating a fertile ground for a high-scoring encounter. Sparta Rotterdam, ranked 14th, have conceded an average of 3 goals per game, while Willem II, sitting bottom of the table, allow 2.6 goals on average. Both sides have shown offensive intent but defensive frailties, with Sparta boasting a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently and Willem II at 60%. This match promises open play and goalmouth action under the lights on Saturday evening.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Sparta Rotterdam have conceded 3 goals per game on average this season, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Willem II's defense also leaks goals, conceding 2.6 per match on average.
  • Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, showing a strong scoring trend.
  • Both teams have attacking players with high shot volumes, supporting a goal-rich game.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 3.4 over the last 10 meetings, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 58% chance against an implied market chance of 47.6%, reflecting a 10.4% . Both teams exhibit defensive weaknesses and attacking tendencies, with Sparta Rotterdam averaging 14 shots and nearly 5 on target per game, and Willem II contributing over 11 shots per match. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per game further supports a high-scoring outcome. Player data shows key attackers like M. Verheydt consistently generating shots and goals, enhancing the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Sparta Defensive Record3 goals conceded per game
Positive
Willem II Defensive Record2.6 goals conceded per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with both teams prone to defensive lapses and eager to attack. Sparta Rotterdam's offensive firepower combined with Willem II's defensive struggles suggests a match likely to exceed three goals. The data supports a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for bettors seeking excitement and value.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Given the defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent from both sides, this fixture is primed for a goal-fest. Sparta Rotterdam's consistent shot volume and Willem II's goal concessions create a strong case for Over 3.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Sparta Rotterdam have conceded 3 goals per game on average this season, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Willem II's defense also leaks goals, conceding 2.6 per match on average.

Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, showing a strong scoring trend.

Both teams have attacking players with high shot volumes, supporting a goal-rich game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals per game, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a consistent pattern and a strong indicator for Over 3.5 Goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sparta Rotterdam1.4
Avg goals scored
Willem II0.6
Sparta Rotterdam3
Avg goals conceded
Willem II2.6
Sparta Rotterdam80%
BTTS rate
Willem II60%
Sparta Rotterdam100%
Over 2.5 goals
Willem II60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals and BTTS outcomes, with Sparta Rotterdam's recent games all surpassing 2.5 goals and an 80% BTTS rate. Willem II also contributes to goal-scoring chances despite their defensive issues, supporting a scenario where both sides find the net and the total goals exceed three.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Eredivisie analysiscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 68% · edge +10.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Willem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Willem II to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Sparta Rotterdam to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Sparta Rotterdam and 60% for Willem II, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sparta Rotterdam

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 4L
10 Oct 2026A GO Ahead Eagles3-3
19 Sep 2026H Heerenveen0-4
13 Sep 2026A PSV Eindhoven1-4
04 Sep 2026H PEC Zwolle2-2
29 Aug 2026A Excelsior1-2

Willem II

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 6L
11 Oct 2026A Utrecht1-3
19 Sep 2026H Fortuna Sittard0-1
15 Sep 2026A Ajax1-5
11 Sep 2026A AZ Alkmaar1-1
05 Sep 2026H Excelsior0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Willem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Willem II to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Sparta Rotterdam to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Sparta Rotterdam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Recent form data highlights Sparta Rotterdam's matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals, with a 100% rate in their last fixtures. Willem II's games have also seen a majority of matches with multiple goals, at a 60% rate. Both teams have struggled defensively, conceding multiple goals per game, which supports the expectation of a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Sparta Rotterdam Over 2.5
60%Willem II Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals per game, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a consistent pattern and a strong indicator for Over 3.5 Goals in this match.

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