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Spain crestSpain
v
Argentina crestArgentina

World Cup | Sun 19 Jul, 20:00

Spain v Argentina Stats

Data last updated: Sun 09 Aug 2026, 10:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spain face Argentina in World Cup on Sun 19 Jul, 20:00. Recent scoring records for Spain and Argentina show which side carries the more dependable attacking rhythm into this fixture. Spain enter the final unbeaten in 37 consecutive matches, a sequence stretching back to their defeat by Colombia in March 2024.

BT4Y match pick

Spain to Win

  • At 5/4, Spain to Win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Additional defensive support can be sent across, but that creates space for Dani Olmo, Fabian Ruiz or Pedro Porro to exploit elsewhere.
  • Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Spain to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 42% for Spain to Win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Spain to Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Additional defensive support can be sent across, but that creates space for Dani Olmo, Fabian Ruiz or Pedro Porro to exploit elsewhere.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Neutral
Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Additional defensive support can be sent across, but that.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Spain Win is the preferred angle because additional defensive support can be sent across, but that creates space for Dani Olmo, Fabian Ruiz or Pedro Porro to exploit elsewhere. Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Spain Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Their philosophy has often resembled a simple challenge to the opposition: score if you like, but be prepared for what comes next.

Main risk

Their philosophy has often resembled a simple challenge to the opposition: score if you like, but be prepared for what comes next.

Key Data Signals

Spain to Win evidence

Additional defensive support can be sent across, but that creates space for Dani Olmo, Fabian Ruiz or Pedro.

Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Spain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Spain to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Spain1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Argentina2.8
    Spain0.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Argentina1.4
    Spain20%
    BTTS rate
    Argentina100%
    Spain40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Argentina100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 71% · edge +15 pts
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -2.9 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Spain Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Spain to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Spain5.5
    Avg corners for
    Argentina7
    Spain8.25
    Avg total corners
    Argentina10.25
    Spain1
    Avg yellow cards
    Argentina1
    Spain16.25
    Avg shots
    Argentina18.75
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Spain

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 0L
    14 Jul 2026A France2-0
    10 Jul 2026H Belgium2-1
    06 Jul 2026A Portugal1-0
    02 Jul 2026H Austria3-0
    27 Jun 2026A Uruguay1-0

    Argentina

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 0D 0L
    15 Jul 2026A England2-1
    12 Jul 2026H Switzerland3-1
    07 Jul 2026H Egypt3-2
    03 Jul 2026H Cape Verde Islands3-2
    28 Jun 2026A Jordan3-1
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -2.9 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Spain Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Spain wins
    0Draws
    0Argentina wins
    27 Mar 2018Spain v Argentina6-1
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -2.9 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Spain to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Spain8
    Played
    Argentina8
    Spain1.8
    Avg goals for
    Argentina2.4
    Spain0.1
    Avg goals against
    Argentina1
    Spain7
    Clean sheets
    Argentina2
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -2.9 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Spain Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Season data supports Spain to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Spain732105
    1Argentina933007
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Spain Over 2.5
    100%Argentina Over 2.5
    7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Spain sit at 40% and Argentina sit at 100% with the H2H average at 7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.